by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Bill Downey, of Gold Trends.net, LLC, is an Independent Investment Analyst with over twenty years of study. YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this WEBSITE AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. Do your own due diligence. No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. The author intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations.

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  • 07 Jun 2017 2:31 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Cycle Inversion

    WE got our close last week above 1272 and that was the point we favored a cycle inversion would occur and a continued rally towards June 9th (plus/minus 72 hours).

    Here we are arriving at the cycle window and while the rally wasn’t as strong as I thought it could be, we still did rally into this date.

    Odds favor we begin a pullback after this week into the next cycle date of June 23rd (plus or minus 72 hours).


  • 01 May 2017 2:57 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    GOLD

    Medium term

    We continue to favor our forecast from last year for a Dec 2015 or March 2016 low in gold remains valid. We were successful in calling the exact month (Dec 2015) as the gold low but now we want to see the 2011 downtrend line taken out. It’s the last downtrend line on the chart and until it gets taken out, gold can continue its pullback. We’d like to see two monthly closes above 1388 (the 2014 high) to put confidence that the next leg up in gold is underway.



  • 06 Apr 2017 9:03 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Gold

    Short Term – Bullish (near resistance & short term cycle turn)

    The last website subscriber update odds favored 1261-1272 as resistance and we got 1261 high since then. Support had been listed at 1230-1239 and low has been 1239.90 (spot prices). We favored lower into this time frame, on a close below 1239-1244. While we got as low as 1239, we did not close below.

    As you can see price has been moving sideways refusing to sell off. That’s usually bullish. So is hanging around a trend line for so long. So is hanging around a moving average for so long. It’s hard for me to be anything but bullish at the moment. Especially with the short term cycle turn arriving (see cycles). The one thing however, is the downtrend line at 1261 and 1272-1275 areas are strong resistance. We plow there and odds favor the upper gold channel will be hit.

    Watch 1261-1275 for resistance zone & the dual upper channel resistance area.


    Additional note

    While I will look at the 50 and 200 day averages to see what everyone else is looking at - I personally watch Fibonacci 89 & 233 Day Moving  Averages.  They do a good job defining the intermediate term trend as well as key support and resistance tests to watch.

    Summary – Odds favor a bottom between now and early next week and a move higher into the last week of April. That`s the odds favored scenario. A close below 1222 means somethings not right with the forecast. It’s best to keep in mind that APRIL is often (not always) but often a choppy affair. The political DYNAMITE & CIVIL UNREST surfacing globally is most likely the catalyst (FEAR) that gold has been waiting for.

    There are odds in markets but no absolutes.   The odds favor if gold takes out that downtrend line above the 233 day average, and pushes above 1275, we should see the upper channel tested.

    Cycles

    Last update favored a turn down from the red cycle of March 28th to the blue cycle due on April 11th (plus or minus 72 hours).

    The NFP (Non Farm Payroll) comes out on Friday at 8:30 AM. It's often a turning point for gold.

    From a cycle standpoint the ideal date is April 11th (plus or minus 72 hours). That means that the window opens on Saturday. So for gold to turn on Friday certainly would still be in context of a turn. I say that because so far, gold has been REFUSING to do anything but go sideways. That often is a clue that gold has underlying strength.

    Odds favor gold is just waiting for the window to turn up. I say odds, because as you know there are no absolutes. With that said, odds are high we get a turn on Friday or early next week.


    Summary

    There is no one indicator that works all the time.  What one looks for is something that works 75% of the time.   

    Thus odds favor gold makes turns up either Friday or early week and moves higher into the next red cycle due April 26th (plus or minus 72 hours) which is the next red cycle date.

    A weekly close below 1222 anytime after next Wednesday will favor a short term cycle failure and will invalidate this short term forecast.


  • 20 Mar 2017 6:28 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Short term Gold 

    Support for the week is 1217-1225 and 1205-1213 (depending when this week’s pullback takes place). If no pullback, Resistance to beat is 1235-1240. The overall trend remains up until we take out 11955. A close below 1195 and odds favor we are wrong about the uptrend remaining in place into April/May.


    I’ve adjusted the 2017 channel to fit the price parameters. On a higher level overall, anything in between 1195-1237 is neutral zone. Whichever side gold chooses should set the pace into April/May.


    The seasonal chart favors gold bottoming in March and a bounce back into April or May. While this is not the only reason, and this is an average of 20 years (1994-2014), that encompasses both bull and bear times in gold, it is something I do keep an eye on. During bear markets, gold fails to deliver in the 2nd half of the year. Sometimes, even in the 1st part of the year. During Bull markets, the 2nd half of the year is where we get big moves. You can see that the Seasonal does show a bit more lower potential into next week (where we have a medium term cycle). However, seasonal charts do not EMIT PRECISE turns, but on AVERAGE. The bottom line is gold should make a low in March and then attempt a rally into April or May.


    Short Term Continued

    SUMMARY

    Odds still favor the overall trend is higher into next week.

    Cycles

    The last cycle turn was March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours) and the low was within the cycle window.

    The rotation is back to Blue cycle lows and that’s what we want to see because blue cycle lows favor gold in a bullish position. The other thing to be aware of is the medium cycle is due this week - March 20th (plus or minus 2 weeks). The previous 3 medium term cycles had gold making its low (in one case a high) just after the blue cycle. Suffice to say that gold has NOW INVERTED to a blue cycle low and we’re expecting gold to bottom last week and begin a rally attempt. So far so good but because of the medium term cycle, I can’t rule out a pullback either towards 1207-1213 or 1218-1222 this week.


    Cycles continued

    Summary

    Odds favor gold rallies into the next red cycle due March 28th (plus or minus 72 hours).


  • 07 Mar 2017 2:26 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)



    Here is a sample of our trade signals for subscribers.  This one was Posted March 7th 2017.


    Launch GoldTrends.net    


    A Signal Trade update on GoldTrends.Net

    With the NFP (Non Farm Payroll) report on Friday, and then the Fed Interest rate decision on March 15th, there's a lot of pressure on gold being exerted by the beliefs of Wall St and Main St.  

    Gold is in the process of testing the lower 2017 uptrend line which runs from 1206-1211 on the lower line.   Gold is testing the January highs for the year as well.   Thus the 1206-1222 area is important.  It's the first area that could provide support.   The other area of interest would be the 1172-1182 area where the 2013 low resides along with the END OF JANUARY LOW on the chart.   


    Cycles

    The Ideal time to buy still looks to be next week.    More important is the fact that the cycle has inverted from blue cycle highs to red cycle high and we're heading to a blue cycle low.  THIS IS WHAT WE WANT FOR A BULLISH ROTATION.   That's what the odds favor is going to happen.   Just remember there are odds,  but NO absolutes in markets.   Odds are our best chance to find a good trade.  One that has the best chance of making (and not losing) money.   If you trade,  this is all you should be searching for.   A couple good trades per month.  This is where the cycles give us the best odds of catching a turn.   The next turn is March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours).   This is where odds are best for a turn.   Not the absolute,  but the odds.   There are exceptions to this,  but the cycle turns should be considered very important and one (as you can see by the chart) should be reluctant to trade against them.  It's best when the market is in line with them.  


    Here are the current website orders.   The closer we get to March 13th - 15th the more I will adjust accordingly.

    SUMMARY 


    A blue cycle low in gold would be bullish.  That's the odds.  It would favor a rally into April and then we'll see.  The ideal time is March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours).  That means the cycle window opens March 10th.   That's less than 72 hours away.    Just in time for the NFP report.   Just keep in mind the cycle window will be open until the 16th and that means that the FED interest rates decision on March 15th is also in the cycle window.   So this is not going to be an EASY picking.

    The ideal price is going to be either 1182 (Plus or minus ten bucks) and/or 1200 (plus or minus 10 bucks).   It doesn't mean it can't be a lower number,  it just means the odds are the highest at these points.  


    ==================================================
    GOLD CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================
    Buy 1 Gold contract Spot 1183.80

    Buy 1 Gold contract Spot 1173.80

    YTD = Gain $ 59.50
    ==================================================
    SILVER CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================

    Buy 1 silver contract Spot if and when gold hits 1173.80 spot

    YTD = Gain $ 1.95

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

     Follow us on Twitter at @goldtrendsnet (no period)
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Disclaimer
    The analyst intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations. Do your own diligence. This is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any commodity or stock. The analyst is merely listing one of the trades for his own account and what you do with that information is entirely up to you.  The analyst lists his trades as soon as possible but due to his style there are times he has bought or sold a position based on the PATTERNS that have been presented at the moment.  On those occasions, be aware that you will receive information of a buy or sell point that analyst has ALREADY TAKEN FOR HIS OWN ACCOUNT. While that is not the intention, we want to make sure you know that it does happen. We are not brokers---we are traders. We DO provide trade orders we have PLACED as soon as we decide, but due to style there will be times we have already entered or exited and we make you aware of that in each update.


  • 06 Mar 2017 4:09 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)


    Cycles

    The next cycle turn is March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours). The February red cycle was hit right on the head.

    Last week we said if there was no cycle inversion then resistance was the 200 day average at 1263-1272 & the 2011 downtrend line. The high came in at 1263.

    One of the 2 options laid out last week was a cycle inversion could be forming that would transform the rotation to a blue cycle low (BULLISH).

    IF this is playing out it removes a big concern we’ve had for gold and that’s red cycle lows. Real sustained bull markets are when we see blue cycle lows.

    While this would call for another week of pullback in gold, it would be setting up for a blue cycle low. That is the rotation we want to see when gold is in a bullish configuration.


    Cycles continued

    In this scenario, cycles peaked here at the red cycle (Feb 27th – plus or minus 72 hours) and gold is in a pullback into the blue cycle low due March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours). From there the rally resumes higher.


  • 13 Feb 2017 1:39 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)



    Cycles

    Here was the projection from January 27th in cycles for a move to the blue cycle due on Feb 10th.


    What now ?

    The odds favor scenario had us looking for higher gold price and a peak last week (Feb 10th – Plus or minus 72 hours) at the blue cycle.


  • 06 Feb 2017 6:43 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)



    GOLD for the week of Feb 6th  2017

    Initial Resistance (1st tier) 1245-1255 (2nd Tier) 1272-1282

    Initial Support (1st tier) 1207-1219 (2nd Tier) 1190-1197

    Our last update listed resistance (2nd Tier) at 1222-1232 and the high was 1225. Support was listed at 1172-1182 and the low was 1197.

    Gold Short Term (Bullish since 1134) Goes Bearish on close below 1197

    Resistance this week and the odds favored targets are 1245-1255 and 1272-1282.

     Support 1207-1219 & 1192-1197. The Trend is up. Close below 1192-1197 puts short term bearish.   There's minor resistance at the 1235-1238 area at the red line.


    Pivot is the 1218-1222.

     As long as we’re above that, we’re heading for the resistance areas. There’s a minor resistance near 1235-1238 we need to get above (at the red line).  The trend remains up into this week & then we'll see.


  • 12 Jan 2017 1:54 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)



    Gold Report

    Jan 13 2017

    Long Term TREND – bearish– (Moving Averages 1214-1222)

    The correction since July 2016

    As described in previous reports since August, our analysis has favored this current correction that began in July should end in the November 2016 to January 2017 time frame. How that TURN looks on its pattern will give evidence if it’s just going to be a bounce like we saw in the first half of this year. In the last update, our outlook was we favored the turn has been underway since Dec 21st. As long as we remain above 1110-1122, favor the correction from July is complete and a move higher is beginning.

    The 2015 low

    The last Long term window forecast was for “the” low to take place between Dec 2015-March 2016 and December 2015 was the bear market low so far at 1045. Odds still favor it as the low, but until we get above the 2011 downtrend line and the 2014 high of 1388, we can’t eliminate this current correction won’t break that low. We had estimated in November either 1172-1182 or 1072-1122 (weekly closing basis) as the two target price ranges that favor where the price low takes place. So far gold has reached 1122 as a low during December.

    If we bottomed at 1072-1122, then gold is favored to move higher into mid-February/Late March. Then we’ll see what the pattern looks like. If gold closes below 1110-1122 on a monthly basis, odds favor the correction hasn’t ended. For now, our outlook for (Nov 2016-Jan 2017) to favor where the low from last July takes place looks to be in play.

    The current bearish trend reading

    The moving averages are at (1214-1222) If gold closes above 1222 for two consecutive monthly closes the trend will be upgraded to Neutral.

    NOTE: GOLD IS TESTING JUST UNDER 1241-1222 as of this report. We should favor that 1214-1222 is strong MONTHLY RESISTANCE. A January & February close above 1222 upgrades the long term trend from Bearish to NEUTRAL. Note also the December low touched the long term uptrend lines and a good bounce has developed. This also is encouraging that gold could be making a HIGHER LOW than 2015’s. If 1110-1122 holds (the low is 1122) then the upside could get interesting later this year. Watch the moving averages. If we get above them, then the 2011 downtrend line will be the next long term test of significance for gold.


    On the upside (and the moving averages).

    The Blue average (1214) must move back above red average (1222) and price must be above both averages on TWO monthly closes to turn the long term TREND back to bullish. The RED BEAR AVERAGE is only 8 dollars above the BLUE BULLISH AVERAGE. The BLUE average has to get above the RED average and price has to be above both averages on two monthly closes for the LONG TERM trend to turn Bullish. In addition, price has to close back above the 2011 downtrend line (1272-1308) and the 89 month moving average 1337 and the 2013 price high of 1388 for gold to signal that the long term odds have turned and the gold correction from 2011 is over and a new bull market leg going towards 2300-5000 is underway.

    Finally, it still takes two monthly closes above the triple green momentum lines at 1488-1530 to confirm the long term bull market UPTREND OF MOMENTUM has resumed. A yearly close above the long term red line on the weekly/monthly chart above 1600 would favor a move to 1794-1925. A yearly close above 1922 would favor a move to the 2300-2500 area.

    Bottom line – The 2011 downtrend (Bear) channel remains in play. January is the odds current target time for low but it’s possible we saw it in December at 1122. If we close above the moving averages in January (1211-1222) then a test of the 2011 downtrend line should take place this quarter. A monthly close below 1110 cancels the above outlook. Gold needs to close above 1180 in January as well to keep the upside going into Feb/March.


  • 18 Dec 2016 10:38 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Gold Cycles

    We discussed on our website Gold Report last week that the price move to the next cycle turn looked weak and that the potential for a cycle inversion (a low last week on the blue cycle) was a potential. We also said that a close below 1152 would favor a move towards 1122. Last week’s spot low in gold was 1122 !!!

    Our discussion was if gold made a low last week, it was possible that “THE CORRECTION” from July could be over. Gold made a low.

    The chart below shows what the situation looks like. We spent some time this weekend relooking at all of 2016. Blue cycle lows favor a bullish TREND. As you can see, gold rallied into August where it made a blue cycle inversion HIGH. Blue cycle highs favor a bearish TREND.


    Cycles Continued

    Now gold looks to have done another cycle inversion to a BLUE cycle low = Bullish.

    Thus its possible that gold is bottoming and completing the correction that began in July. Just because it’s a blue cycle low doesn’t mean gold can’t go under 1122. But it does mean the odds favor gold is going to stop going down and the end of the correction could be ending. As long as gold going forward continues to make blue cycle lows, the odds will favor higher. The next cycle turn is Dec 29th (plus or minus 72 hours). Odds favor gold should begin a bounce into year end. However, volume is going to be real light as we enter the week before Christmas. That means it is not out of the question for gold to continue lower again into another RED CYCLE low. A close below 1113 spot gold would favor it. THAT’s THE SPOT TO WATCH. If we close below there, odds will favor another drop into the 29th towards 1072-1083.

    If gold sells off again this week look for 1113-1122 as first support and 1072-1083.

    If gold has made a blue cycle low resistance this coming week will be 1144-1152 and 1162-1172 and gold should remain in this bounce into the 29th (plus or minus 72 hours). Then we’ll see if the pattern is bullish looking.

    Summary - We still can’t rule out a final low in January but odds favor gold is going to bounce into month’s end, and then we’ll see.


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Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

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