by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Gold support for this week is 1142-1146

12 Mar 2015 8:37 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

Gold ~ March 12 2015

Trend
Long Term ~ Bearish-
Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1255-1272 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need close above 120-122 in GOLD ETF GLD to turn trend up.
Short Term ~ bearish- Need a close above 1171 to return to NEUTRAL.

Initial Resistance 1163-1167 2nd tier 1171-1185
Support 1146-1156 2nd tier 1138-1142

Last update on the website listed resistance at 1172-1182 and the high was 1164. Support was listed at 1146-1156 and the low was 1146.

FX Volatility Spikes As More Countries Enter Currency Wars; Euro Surges On Furious Squeeze After Touching 1.04
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/12/2015

The global currency wars are getting ever more violent, following yesterday's unexpected entry of Thailand and South Korea, whose central banks were #23 and #24 to ease monetary conditions in 2015, confirming the threat of a global USD margin call is clear and present (see "The Global Dollar Funding Shortage Is Back With A Vengeance And "This Time It's Different"). But the one currency everyone continues to watch is the Euro, which the closer it gets to parity with the USD, the more volatile it becomes, and moments after touching a 1.04-handle coupled with the DXY rising above 100 for the first time in 12 years, the EURUSD saw a huge short squeeze which sent it nearly 150 pips higher to 1.0643, before the selling resumed.

Bank Of Korea Unexpectedly Cuts Interest Rate To Record Low 1.75%, 24th Central Bank To Ease In 2015
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2015

The currency war salvos just keep on coming. Moments ago the BOK unexpectedly (the move was predicted by just 2 of 17 economists polled by Bloomberg) cut its policy rate from 2.00% to a record low 1.75%, in what is clearly a full-blown retaliation against the collapse currency of its biggest export competitor, Japan, whose currency has cratered to a level that many in South Korea believe has become a direct subsidy for its competing exports. As such the only question is why the BOK didn't cut earlier. And following the surprise rate cut by Thailand earlier today, the "surprise" South Korean rate cut means there are now 24 easing policy actions by central banks in 2015 alone.

"Monetarism Hasn't Worked Anywhere" - Reality On China, Finally

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2015

China remains an export economy no matter how hard they try to convince the world they are moving otherwise. The idea of creating internal “demand” as a means to extricate marginal changes from everybody else is undoubtedly a good idea, even a noble one, but the reality of China as it exists top-down isn’t conducive for such a transformation. Further, that just isn’t realistic under the global conditions that have persisted since the Great Recession was declared over. In that respect, there isn’t much to separate what is occurring now from the Great Recession itself.

China's Latest Spinning Plate: 10 Trillion In Local Government Debt

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2015

China is in the midst of attempting to help local governments refinance a mountain of debt, some of which was accumulated off balance sheet via shadow banking conduits at relatively high rates. According to UBS, "Chinese domestic media are saying that the authorities are considering a Chinese "QE" with the central bank funding the purchase of RMB 10 trillion in local government debt."

Danger Down Under — A Brief Look At Australia's Trade Flows

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2015

Global growth forecasts are falling and the risk of deflation is rising. As a result, countries that are dependent on commodity exports are especially vulnerable. Australia relies on exports to China. If prices fall and China slows down then Australia will be in big trouble.

Gold Short term

Price reached our 1142-1146 target yesterday coming in at 1146.50 and a small bounce attempt is underway. Look for resistance at 1163-1167 and 1171-1175. Support is 1142-1146. All trends remain down at the moment. The Nov 13th and Nov 30th lows came in at 1146 and thus 1142-1146 is the final support before the 1130 low of Nov 7th. We do not feel that the 1130 low will hold if tested. Therefore the only place we see for a rebound on the short term is whether we hold 1142-1146.

We still feel new lows are coming but this week could hold at 1142-1146 and bounce back into week end in the 1165-1175 area.

gold hourly price chart



Gold Cycles


The next cycle turn is March 20th (plus or minus 72 hours).

Gold Cycles

HUI GOLD STOCK INDEX

Intermediate Term Trend ~ Bearish
Intermediate Term Moving Averages – 180.08 – 184.95

We have reached the line on the HUI chart that has been penetrated three times but each time provided a low from which the HUI has bounced. It happened again yesterday but at the momentm, odds favor we’re going to head towards support in the 140-144 area,

All trends remain down at the moment and it takes a close above 185 to neutralize the downtrend.




NUGT

Intermediate Trend –Bearish
Moving Averages – 13.19– 14.24

As long as NUGT is below the moving averages the intermediate term favors lower and we need a close above 14 in order to neutralize the current downtrend.

Support is the 7-8 area and resistance 13-15.




Gold Medium Term

Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361
Long term Moving averages 1401 – 1481
Medium Term Trend ~Bearish 1233 – 1247

One of the things we said when gold made its low in November of 2014 was that it did not favor (and still doesn’t favor) it being the final low. The reason we said that is because gold did not touch a trend line on the chart when the low was made and it is a very rare thing that a final bear market low would happen without touching a trend line. Not impossible, but very rare.

On the other hand we stated during the rally from November to January that the bull market in gold can ONLY resume if we take out the dual triple green channel lines and make it support. Price reached the middle line at the triple green trend line and then turned back down and has not looked back since. And that’s really the bottom line. In order for the gold market to resume its bullish form gold absolutely must make the triple green channel line a price support point and not resistance. In Addition the blue moving average has to cross above the red in order to confirm the trend change. Until that time, the downtrend remains intact.

Odds favor gold will make a new yearly low as Platinum has already done so.

HUI gold stock index price chart


GOLD ETF GLD
Moving Average Trend ~ 115.15 – 116.09 – Bearish
Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase.
This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20

The intermediate term remains down. Resistance is 115-116 and then 120-121. It takes a close above 116 at the moving averages to neutralize the shorter term down trends.




GDX

Intermediate term Trend 20.04 – 20.56 ~ Bearish

Resistance is the moving averages at 20.23-20.70 and short term support is the lower green at the 16.20-16.80 area.

It takes a close above the moving averages at 20.04-20.56 to neutralize the short term downtrend.



What next?

The short term trend is bearish and it takes a close above 1184 and the short term can resume on the downside. IT is possible we can make the low for this week on Wednesday or Thursday morning at the 1142-1146 area.

Bottom Line

Gold remains in a bear market with new lows coming in 2015.



Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

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