by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Gold runs to weekly resistance 1220-1225 & potentially 1240

14 May 2015 8:48 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

Trend

Long Term ~ Bearish - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.

Medium Term ~ Bearish   Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.

Intermediate Term ~ Neutral – trading range 1170-1225.

Short Term ~Bullish – Price remains in trade range 1175-1225 and waiting for breakout or breakdown.

Initial Resistance 1220-1225 2nd tier 1231-1235

Support 1200-1197 2nd tier 1188-1194

Varoufakis Has Futuristic Greek Debt Plan That "Fills Mario Draghi's Soul With Fear"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/14/2015

Germany throws its support behind a Greek referendum on euro membership while Putin invites Athens to join BRICS Bank. Meanwhile, Yanis Varoufakis has a plan for resolving Greece's debt problem — and he imagines the ECB chief is terrified of it. 

SocGen Asks If "$60 Billion Of Money Printing Monthly Can't Get The Euro Down Then What's Next?"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/14/2015 


"Former BoE governor King yesterday made a timely intervention, warning that central banks risk tipping the world into a currency war. We're there already, of course, but if $60bn per month of money printing by the ECB can't get the euro down (because of the USD), then what's next? The RBA has cut rates twice this year, and AUD/USD trades back over 0.8100. Is FX intervention next?"


Chinese Iron Ore Prices Plunge After CISA Warns Of Persistent Overcapacity

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/14/2015


Having rebounded along with practically every other risk-asset class in the world over the last month or so, Chinese Iron Ore futures are collapsing tonight. Despite the promise of Chinese LTROs expanding credit (just like they didn't in Europe), iron ore prices are down around 4% - the biggest drop in over 2 years - to as low as CNY419 (or around $62) as China Iron & Steel Association warns that overcapacity in the seaborne iron ore market will persist through to at least 2019 as the world’s largest suppliers expand production further.


What Peter Schiff Said To Ben Bernanke

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/13/2015


"You said you weren’t monetizing the debt when you talked to Congress. You said the Fed was going to sell the bonds, but none of them have been sold. They’ve all been rolled over. So how are you claiming victory when you haven’t exited? You haven’t raised rates, you haven’t shrunk the balance sheet. You were wrong in the past. You didn’t see the financial crisis coming. You told us there was no housing bubble. You said subprime was contained. So you were certainly wrong then. So how do you know you’re not wrong now? Is there anything that might change your opinion and get you to rethink and maybe admit that your outlook is wrong?" 


"We The People" Need To Circle The Wagons: The Government Is On The Warpath

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/13/2015


Have you ever wondered why the Constitution begins with those three words “we the people”? It was intended to be a powerful reminder that everything flows from the citizenry. We the people are the center of the government and the source of its power. That “we” is crucial because it reminds us that there is power and safety in numbers, provided we stand united. We can accomplish nothing alone. Unfortunately, we have been ousted from that protected circle, by the courts, the politicians, and the corporations - replacing us with yes-men, shills who dance to the tune of an elite ruling class. To put it a little more bluntly, stop thinking like mindless government robots and start acting like a powerhouse of citizens vested with the power to say “enough is enough.”


It's Official: The Bank of Japan Has Broken The Japanese Stock Market

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/13/2015


Monetizing the entirety of gross government bond issuance and amassing an equity portfolio worth just shy of $100 billion on the way to cornering the entire ETF market may come across as insanely irresponsible even in a world that is now defined by insanely irresponsible central banks, but Haruhiko Kuroda does not care because when it comes to QE and the financing of governments via central bank-assisted ponzi schemes, no one does it like the BoJ.


China Goes "Unconventional" In Effort To Tackle Trillions In Debt, Rescue Economy

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/13/2015


China has officially entered the realm of "unconventional" monetary policy, joining the Fed, the ECB, the BoJ, and a whole host of other global central banks in an attempt to bring the supposedly all-mighty printing press and the unlimited balance sheet that goes with it to bear on subpar economic growth. We suspect the results will be characteristically underwhelming (at least in terms of lowering real interest rates, although in terms of boosting risk assets, the results may be outstanding) meaning it's likely only a matter of time before LTRO becomes QE in China just as it did in Europe.


Gold Short term

Price broke out above 1205 yesterday and has rallied to weekly resistance 1219-1225.  Once again the breakout higher was all accomplished in a couple of hours and the 40 dollar move to weekly resistance all complete in two days.  

This is the same type of activity that has been happening in gold that happens in other markets and the sad fact of the situation is that the forces that now control the markets are run by computers and software programs headed up by the big banks and other well connected entities.

Look for 1222-1226 to provide resistance today and weekly resistance is now 1235-1244.


   

  

CYCLES

The next short term cycle is due May 18th (plus or minus 72 hours).  The cycle is playing out and gold should move higher to next week.  Resistance will be 1220-1225 and 1240.  

     

HUI

Intermediate Term – BULLISH  

Moving averages – 178.22 -177.87

Look for a move to the yellow trend line above 190 as the odds preferred direction on the short term.

 

NUGT

Intermediate Trend –Bullish

Moving Averages – 12.10 – 11.99

We got our test of 1350 and odds favor a move to 16-17 next. 

 

Gold Medium Term

Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361

Long term Moving averages 1401 – 1481

Medium Term Trend ~Bearish 1206 – 1223


The medium term trend remains down and takes a weekly close above 1225-1255 in order to move the reading to neutral. Until that time, we can’t eliminate the downtrend.

The yearly pivot is 1172-1182. Above 1182 gives the bulls a slight edge. But it goes right back to the bears on closes below 1172. Keep that in mind.  THAT’s THE YEARLY OPENING RANGES in price and it is the point where gold is either HIGHER or LOWER on the year.

Seasonal factors are positive for gold in May but they only perform when we are in a bull trend reaction.

We need two weekly closes above 1225 to begin to reverse the downtrend on the medium term.

The moving averages on the chart is resistance at 1210-1230. The triple green channel line is the Bull/bear line. Price must recover and make that triple line support and not resistance in order to turn the trend up.  Until then, odds favor price should reach the lower trend lines on the chart.  The next one is near the 1080-1100 area.

  


GOLD ETF GLD

Moving Average Trend ~ 114.44– 114.50 – NEUTRAL

Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase.  This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20/13

GLD (like gold) is a trading nightmare at the moment of sideways erratic movement.  Until things give trending indication, its best to be patient.  Resistance is 119-120 and support at 112-113, and that’s the range we keep trading in.

 


GDX

Intermediate term Trend  20.07 – 19.98 ~ Bullish

GDX intermediate term remains bullish but it is not an overwhelming price pattern.

Resistance is at 21.50 – 23.00.  Any close below the moving averages takes GDX out of short term bull mode.  

GDX is stuck in a long trading range between 17 and 23.

 


What next?

Weekly resistance is 1220-1225 and then the 1240 area.  One of those two area’s should be this weeks high.  

Bottom Line

It looks like higher prices to next week and then another pullback should begin



Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

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