by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Bill Downey, of Gold Trends.net, LLC, is an Independent Investment Analyst with over twenty years of study. YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this WEBSITE AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. Do your own due diligence. No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. The author intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations.

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Gold and Commodities taken to the wood shed on Durable Goods report

26 May 2015 12:18 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

From our friends at www.zerohedge.com ---Pretty much sums up Tuesday morning so far.


Our weekend update discussed the US Dollar 1st target pullback low of 91.50 – 93.00 had most likely been reached with the 93.17 low we saw and with price at a key channel line on our longer term weekly chart. 

Here is the news or the spin (you decide) of the morning from main stream media.  

Dollar hits 1-month high as periphery woes weigh on Europe
LONDON  |  By Marc Jones (Reuters)

Greece's financial crisis and signs of growing opposition to austerity in Spain sent the euro to its lowest level in a month on Tuesday, while shares and commodities took a knock as the dollar pushed higher.

Europe's main markets returned to action after a long weekend with the mood unsettled by Sunday's strong local election showing by anti-austerity parties in Spain and with the clock ticking down on Greece's bid to get aid from the euro zone to stay afloat.

Wall Street was expected to open down 0.2 percent, having also been closed on Monday and with the dollar still on the up after confident-sounding comments from Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen and solid inflation data at the end of last week. 

Traders were bracing for a deluge of data ranging from manufacturing and services to house price and consumer confidence figures to gauge the recent state of the world's largest economy.

The first flurry of numbers came from goods orders, which showed a solid increase in business investment plans for a second straight month.

"The outlook for Fed policy normalization is again gaining traction and certainly with Greek risk there is nothing that would dampen this trend," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX strategy at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

"There is good reason for continued dollar strength but if it goes too quickly we will see the same thing as happened in March and early April because there will be the question about what effect it will have (on the U.S. economy)." 

The dollar was hovering at an eight-year high against the yen and a one-month peak against a basket of other big currencies.

Europe's main stock markets had clawed back most of their early losses, while the euro was at $1.09 as the sell-off in southern euro zone debt markets eased despite the Greek and Spanish jitters.

The earlier flight into safe-havens meant Switzerland's 10-year bond yields were back in negative territory for the first time this month, though. Spanish, Portuguese, and Greek bonds were all still in the red despite being calmer.

Separately, it emerged that deputy finance ministers would hold a teleconference on Thursday to follow up on days of Greek negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Central Bank and European Commission.

In the currency market, the dollar's move to a one-month high against its currency basket extended a rally triggered by Friday's robust inflation data and comments from Yellen that she expected the economy to strengthen.

Her Vice Chair Stanley Fischer added in a speech in Israel on Monday that too much importance was being placed on the central bank's first rate hike, and it would take a few years to get rates back to more normal levels.

"I think this has turned around and the dollar is back on a bullish trend," said Ian Stannard, head of European FX strategy with Morgan Stanley in London referring to the data.

"The adjustment has now been completed and the dollar can now react to any positive news. Dollar yen breaking through the top of the range is an important event."

The dollar index was last up 0.9 percent on the day at 96.861 having earlier been as high as 97.121. U.S. treasuries yields and volatility indexes .VIX had also nudged lower in European trading.

With the greenback flexing its muscles, pressure remained on commodity markets, however. Gold, copper and most metals dipped while Brent oil slipped to $65.02 a barrel and U.S. crude  lost 0.7 percent to leave it at $59.31.

(Additional reporting by Patrick Graham in Warsaw; Editing by John Stonestreet and Hugh Lawson)

(END OF ARTICLE)

GoldTrends readers know our view is that it will take real economic growth or an outright panic to levitate gold prices.  We advocate that rising interest rates (when they do finally begin) will be due to sheer panic and not global growth.   We believe we are in the final throws preceding a global economic collapse and a debt default that will change life as we know it.   We have referred to this as a liquidity squeeze and we have been saying since 2012 that it is coming.   We also turned bullish on the US dollar last may (the month it bottomed) and our view has been the liquidity squeeze will form as the US dollar gets bid higher and the rest of the world currencies move lower.  This is all due to LIQUIDITY and SAFE HAVEN concerns.   That is what negative rates are all about also.  Big money willing to pay to PARK money somewhere safe enough to get it back.

We think it is possible that gold can very well react in the same manner as the crash of 2008 where it would spike lower with everything else and then make its bottom and reverse to much higher levels.   While the scenario could be the opposite, we will maintain our stance UNTIL THE CHARTS SHOW AN UPTREND and not a downtrend.

Gold Chart

Gold moved just high enough last week to clear the stops and has reversed lower back towards the PENNANT formation on the price chart.  It spent Thursday and Friday at the top of the channel line and now with markets reopen it is now testing the LOWER trend line.  And close below 1180 suggests that the 1172-1182 yearly closing price support will be tested and a close below 1167 will favor a move towards 1150.

Support is 1182-1185 and then 1172-1178. Resistance is 1193-1198 for the remainder of today.
 


Cycles

The last cycle was due May 18th (plus or minus 72 hours) and the high on the move was exactly on the 18th.   The next cycle is due June 2nd (plus or minus 72 hours) and if we get a low, it will be exactly one year from the 2014 low at 1180 from which a rally into July 11th took place.  From a short term trade standpoint, I will be looking to take a long position then on a TRADE BASIS, and not a long term position.

If things work out, gold could fool the summer crowd and rally into July and August.   More as it develops.

For now, a low should establish itself at the end of this week or by June 5th at the latest.   We are watching it.
 


Silver

Silver is holding better than gold and is at the TOP of the wedge (and not the bottom like gold).   Support is 1646-1659 and 1609-1625.  Resitance is 1735-1775.  If a June gold low produces a potential July and August rally, silver will more than likely outperform.  Like gold, we will look for a low near June 2nd.   More as it develops.





Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

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