by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Gold remains under pressure on all fronts at the moment

14 Jul 2015 10:19 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

Gold Daily Report ~ July 14 2015

Trend

Long Term ~ Bearish- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.

Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a monthly close above 1255 and 1255 to remove bearish trend.

Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need close above 1222-1232 for higher TREND.

Short Term ~Bearish– caught in a sideways market


Initial Resistance 1167-1179  2nd tier 1188-1198

Support 1140-1150 2nd tier 1120-1130


Gold Short Term

Nothing much has yet changed in gold.  We still see that 1172 (1167-1177) is the main resistance to overcome on a short term basis.  We had targeted 1140-1150 as support and so far that has held since the July 7th low at 1145.  That is still support but a close below 1140 should be enough to send gold towards the 1050-1100 area.  


Gold hourly price chart

 

Therefore we can quantify the short term and really all trends until gold retakes 1172-1182 and makes it support.   A close above 1187-1194 will be required to give some semblance of a short term bottom. 


The one other thing to keep in mind is on a seasonal basis,  gold often makes its lows between June 21st and early August.  An average of those lows gives a mid July point.  Because gold is in a downtrend on all timeframes, a seasonal turn cannot be the only basis for a trade to try and take advantage of an upside move. 


For now the bottom line on a short term basis is gold must close above the 1172-1182 (somewhere above 1187-1194).  That 1172-1182 area was YEARLY support and should be considered an important price point. For now, it should be considered resistance until we get back above it.

 

Cycles


The last blue cycle has been very weak and now we approach the next red cycle turn due July 16th (plus or minus 72 hours).   That means that if gold rallies into the end of this week, it has the potential to turn back down into the end of the month.


As you can see, gold is trapped in a wedge between the higher and lower channel lines and we will need a price break out of this area before a more sustained move can develop. The bottom line on the chart is really the key.   If this area gives way and we take out 1130, odds will be high gold will be heading towards 1000-1100.

 

Gold Cycles


In summary, gold remains trapped in the same wedge and price confusion that has been in play since the week of March 21st.  While an upside breakout is possible, the odds are in favor that gold is going to make another new low this year and the final bottom should occur between Oct 2015 and June 2016.  


At this point in time the odds favor that gold is going to begin to head lower.   We may see a push higher into the end of the week, but its best to remain bearish overall.

 

HUI

Medium Term – Bearish

Medium Term Moving averages – 150.78 – 152.93

Intermediate Term Moving averages – 149.89 - 152.22

On the downside we pointed out we could move lower to the other support line at around 140 and it’s the last real support before new lows that would extend back 10 years.


The bottom line analysis at the moment is gold stocks are bearish on all time frames.  We need to see action back over the moving averages in an impulsive manner to change the outlook.  Gold stocks usually bottom during July/August and rally from mid August to mid October.  But that’s during a bull leg.  Still, we should see some type of action of that manner once a low is established. Support is that 140 area at the white trend line.  A move above 153 would suggest gold stocks can set up for a short to intermediate term rally.  Odds are high for a rally in gold stocks due to begin during July/August.  If we move to 140 and the white line odds will be high for at least a short term rally and perhaps during the summer.  But we must see some bullishness before just jumping in.  

  

Hui gold stock index price chart

 

Gold Medium Term

Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361

Long term Moving averages 1350 – 1429

Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1200.83 – 1205.22


The big question is gold getting ready to break to the 1050-1100 area?  We think the answer is yes but we are not sure on the time specifics. This chop that gold has been in is a prep for that action to take place.


If gold breaks lower here, odds would favor we’re heading towards 1050-1100 and probably where the major long term red lines reside.  However, a weekly close above 1225 and then 1255 would begin to favor a rally in July/August.


The BULL/BEAR line is at 1172-1182 area.  Any weekly close below 1158-1163 favors lower that the area has become resistance for gold and has to favor lower prices. On the upside we need a weekly close above 1225 and then 1255 to get some action to the upside going.

The bottom line to gold is that DUAL YELLOW downtrend line has kept the action in check on the upside for quite a while.  As long as price is below that line,  the bear market in gold is still in play.

  

 Gold weekly price chart


GOLD ETF GLD

Moving Average Trend ~ 112.46– 112.84 – Neutral/bearish


We rarely display the GLD long term chart but today’s update has it in all its (non) glory.


Resistance is 113-115 and support at 108-110 and that’s the range we keep trading in.  Those two white lines are the last real support is 98-105 and near the 84 area (not on this chart)

When we talk about 98-105 and even 84 the majority will scoff at its likely hood.  But they are the same group that has been telling us gold is about to make its low and rally to 10000 for the last three years.   Most are in the business of selling physical gold. I think you can figure out the rest.  

 

 Gold ETF GLD price chart

 

GDX

Intermediate term Trend   17.78 - 18.08 ~ Bearish

Resistance is at 20.08 – 20.22


The GDX long term chart is also displayed today.   As you can see, we have broken the long term green channel line.  Can price move lower than that ?   Yes, it can.  Because GDX is not a very old ETF there are no long term charts that exist.  The best representation is the HUI.   While this can very well be "the LOW" or near it, there is nothing impossible in price in commodity markets.  We need to get back above the moving averages on the short term for relief.  Watch that green channel line.  If we can’t get above that, then expect lower prices.

  

Gold stock ETF GDX price chart


What next ?

All trends in gold remain down.  Even the short term leaves a lot to be desired.  From that perspective gold needs to re- capture 1172-1182 and make is support.  Until then the odds have the downside in play.


Bottom Line

June often is a turning point but it can extend into July.  We have seen divergence in other markets but gold has yet to show any action that warrants upside.   Indeed, a continued closing below 1172 this week will keep the pressure on gold.




Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

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