by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Gold report Aug 6 2015

05 Aug 2015 9:44 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

 

Gold Report ~ Aug 6 2015
Trend
Long Term ~ Bearish- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need close above 1172-1182 for higher TREND.
Short Term ~Bearish– market should be near a short term bottom at 1070-1080 but a close below 1072 will add to downside pressure.

Initial Resistance 1094-1104  2nd tier 1108-1113
Support 1072-1082 2nd tier 1040-1150


Gold Short term


Gold still looks very weak and the Tuesday close below 1185 leaves the downside open for more potential damage.  Gold must hold 1072 on Wednesday or lower prices towards the 1033-1050 area will be next.  Any close below 1072-1080 will warn of lower prices.  However, if we hold this area on Wednesday, there is still a potential gold can begin a climb to the upside first resistance area of 1103-1108. But this development must happen soon or gold will soon give way.  In summary, any close below 1072-1080 will leave the downside open for gold and another potential drop into mid-month.


With that said, gold is oversold and over shorted.  It is still possible for gold to turn up here, but time is running out to do so.

Gold hourly price chart 

Interest rates
Medium Term – Neutral
Moving averages 21.11 – 21.07

The pullback in rates held right at the moving averages on the weekly charts and a move back up to test the long term green channel line is underway again.  This comes after Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart’s comments that the Fed is poised to raise rates.  This is one of the added pressures on gold at the moment as the control boyz have the crowd convinced that higher rates are bad for gold.  They will only be bad initially. 


Yes higher rates will potentially sell gold off, but it will be a fake out and part of the final wave down for gold.  The trend in rates is not far from turning up on a medium term basis.  As long as we hold the moving averages, and then take out the green trend line, odds will favor higher rates.  
 
 10 Year T Note rates weekly price chart
  
 
 
Cycles

The next cycle turn is due August 14th, plus or minus 72 hours.  Odds favor a bounce develops from here.  A close above 1103-1108 should lead to a bounce in the 1130-1150 area.  However, a close below 1072-1080 will warn of lower price potentials and  a cycle inversion to mid-month. 

Gold cycles
 
HUI
Medium Term – Bearish
Medium Term Moving averages – 165 – 171
Intermediate Term Moving averages – 118 – 124

On a medium term basis, the next support is that yellow line near the 90 area.  Gold stocks have now entered the fifth and final wave down.  Either the yellow line holds or a COMPLETE retracement back to where the bull market started in 2001 is going to occur.  For now, the potential to move to the 90 area remains as the most likely MEDIUM term scenario.  
 
HUI gold stock index price chart 


Gold Medium Term
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361
Long term Moving averages 1350 – 1429
Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1196-1203


Gold is trying to from support at the 1080 price area and the 50% retracement of the entire bull market.  Odds favor gold will attempt a bounce here, but on a medium term basis, there is still no evidence that this will be the final low.  Not that it is out of the question, but it’s not the odds favored point.

Just the same, odds are high here that gold should hold the 1040-1080 area and at least try a rally attempt during August.   As long as we are below the dual yellow downtrend line, the medium term remains bearish.
 

Gold weekly price chart
 
GOLD ETF GLD
Moving Average Trend ~ 106.00 – 107.00 –bearish

GLD is also trying to find support but is close to giving way to the next support area of 98.  It won’t take much more to move it lower. If GLD is to turn it needs to do so very soon.  Resistance is the 106 area and then 108-111.  The short term trend remains down.
 

Gold ETF GLD price chart
 
GDX
Intermediate term Trend   15.50 – 16.87 ~ Bearish
Resistance is at 14.30-14.90

GDX has broken the 2008 lows and until we reverse back above it the trends remain down. On a shorter term basis, price should bounce back and fill the gap and test the moving averages near 14-15. With that said, the trend is still bearish.
 

GDX price chart
 
What next ?
While the trends remain down in gold, we should be nearing a summer low in gold and the miners.  Odds are high that we should see a bounce into Mid August. Support should be 1072-1082.  However any close below 1072-1080 will warn of yet new lows into mid August.

Bottom Line
It’s best to remain bearish overall but a bounce of some type can very well develop here.
Gold needs to close above 1094 and then 1108 in order to favor a bounce to mid month will take place.  But gold is running out of time and must turn soon or face another downdraft.


Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

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