by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Gold short term cycle turn due this week

30 Aug 2015 9:47 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

Launch www.GoldTrends.net 

We are working on an update for later tonight.  But lets look at the aspect of short term timing and our short term cycles.

First off, there are no technical or any other indicators that will work for timing or trend changes 100% of the time.  Indeed, many are often no better than 50/50.  That means guessing is just as right.  Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't.   In the world of cycles, many expect the cycles to have EXACT time at each cycle.   That's like expecting winter to START no earlier and no later than Dec 21st.   

In other words cycles have standard deviation time.   In the short term cycle below, its plus or minus 72 hours. 

In a bull market ,  Blue lows and red highs are the "preferred" rotation in bullish markets.  

When we have RED bottoms and blue tops ---- the cycle inverts and the rotation changes. 

Gold Cycles

In gold cycles,   a bear market rally usually (but not always) during August.   They usually peak during the 1st two weeks of Sept.

In a bull market --- the summer rally last until Mid October, down in November and BACK up until mid-February--- and in real strong markets, until Mid March.

Two weeks ago,  price had broken down on the red cycle and all was running ok in cycle land.  But the Yuan devaluation and its major downturn in equities as well as a global recession on the horizon, coming debt default and there's giving a lot to think about.

When we have tremendous corrections in other markets, gold reacts.  When you look at the chart, gold turned down on the last red cycle right on time.   But there was too much pressure in the global markets and gold had a three day reaction higher at that time.  Since then, gold moved lower into late last week just under 1120 before the bounce on Friday.  

Now lets look back at the chart.  A blue cycle low is due Aug 29th (plus or minus 72 hours).  Thus the window for a turn opened up Friday (and that was the low so far on the pullback.   That means gold bottomed on Friday -- OR--- has about a 75% chance of making a short term bottom between now Wednesday and turning up into mid month.  

A few things to consider........  

First the global markets are in turmoil and as you saw last week,   gold did and inverted the cycle.  In other words,   we have a 75% chance of making a bottom and a rally to mid -month.  75 % is not 100%.  Keep that in mind. Second is if gold is still in a bear market as it has since 2011,   then the rally is due to peak in September.   Sometimes there are major turns in markets right after labor day.  

That still doesn't solve whether we rally to mid- month beginning this week or  if gold will have a 2nd inversion at this blue cycle and keep moving lower to mid-month.   From an odds standpoint,  its only a 5% chance of a 2nd inversion in a row.  They are rare------ but i've seen a handful.  And they often occur during volatile situations like is occuring in China, Europe and many other nations.

Third ---- its the end of the month (Aug) and that means Futures trading has now (for the most part moved to the DEC futures.  That sometimes can make for a tricky day in price. 

Finally looking back at the chart we see the CHANNEL line running across last weeks low.  NOW PRICE HAS TO BREAK THAT DOWNTRENDING channel that has been capping the price action.   

Friday's price action closed right at the 50 day average.  Watch that area.  We'll have more on the subscriber update, which we are trying to have by tonight --- or tomorrow morning at the latest. As for a trade,  that blue line on the chart  WHERE PRICE HIT on last weeks low also is an  area to watch carefully. I have no recommendation for a trade entry just yet, and I don't like to initiate a trade on SUNDAY nights. We will be watching closely tomorrow morning on the price action for clues and if gold can turn up.  We will publish the full gold report at that time.

 


Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

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