by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Gold and whats going on Friday Dec 4th 2015

04 Dec 2015 8:22 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)



Bloomberg Markets

Investors look to nonfarm payrolls, the fallout from Mario Draghi's stimulus plan continues, and OPEC meets to discuss the oil supply glut. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.

JOBS DAY

November nonfarm payrolls data is due today -- the most-anticipated piece of U.S. data to land ahead of the Fed’s Dec. 16 decision on interest rates. It would take a big surprise to derail the Fed at this point. With investor odds of liftoff when the Fed meets later this month at 74 percent, today's jobs data will probably offer more information about the pace of tightening in the months ahead than on the timing of the first hike. Economists are expecting an increase of 200,000 new jobs in the month and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.0 percent. There will also be a lot of attention paid to the Average Hourly Earnings number, which jumped 2.5 percent in October.

OPEC meets in Vienna

Oil spiked today from near six-year lows, as OPEC ministers gather behind closed doors in Vienna today to discuss output policy. Venezuela -- leading calls for a cut in production -- pressed the point that even Saudi Arabia is troubled about low prices, but Iran signaled it doesn’t expect OPEC to do anything to its production ceiling. Iran says it is only willing to discuss output cuts when its production reaches 4 million barrels a day, while Saudi Arabia reiterated its position that other big producers outside the group, like Russia, will have to join output curbs. Oil has slumped since Saudi Arabia led OPEC’s decision last year to maintain production and defend market share against higher-cost rivals.

Market fallout from ECB shock

The euro pared its biggest jump since 2009, recovering after the European Central Bank's underwhelming stimulus package was unveiled yesterday. Mario Draghi's plan, which involved a rate cut and an extension in asset purchases, stung those who had piled on wagers against the euro amid expectations of more aggressive easing. Said one market strategist: "A lesson in over-positioning was delivered overnight." Other markets are still absorbing his message: German government bonds headed for their worst weekly loss in almost six months, Europe stocks fell even lower and Asian stocks tumbled. The disconnect between investor expectations and the reality delivered by Mario Draghi even caught the eye of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who commented to Congress that “the market expected some actions that were not forthcoming.”

(end of article)

Gold Short term

Gold still remains in downtrend channels on the short term. Today’s resistance points are 1063-1067 and 1072-1077 and finally 1085-1094. We need a close today above 1075 in order to turn things more bullish short term. As far as support let’s look at the medium term chart.


Medium Term

On the medium term chart there’s lots of support lines underneath the market. Most important for the moment is 1034-1044 and then the 1023 area. There’s also support in the 950-1000 area. Here too we are still in a downtrend at the moment. The key on the medium term is for gold to re-establish itself above the 1172-1222 area and then a monthly close above 1255. That would take the medium term out of bearish mode and at least into Neutral.


Cycles

Gold Short term Cycles

At the moment it looks like this rotation below (bearish) is the one that is playing out. In this rotation the low becomes due Dec 11th (plus or minus 72 hours). Targets are 1034-1044, 1020-1023 and then 985-1000.

As long as we are below 1072-1075 on a closing basis, continue to favor lower into next week.

The bottom line here is that an important low is due somewhere in the first two weeks of December and from there gold should rally into year end.   That's how it looks at the moment.   Gold reached 1046 on Thursday in Asia before bouncing back after the ECB announcement.   That's really close to the 1034-1044 level we've been watching.  It comes down to the JOBS NUMBER this morning and then we'll see.




Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

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