by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Gold short term price and cycle forcast

19 Jan 2016 12:31 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

Gold Short Term

On a short term basis gold is trying to form an uptrend channel from the November lows.  From a pattern perspective, it is choppy and overlapping from lows to highs.  That in-itself suggests (so far at least) that it is a counter trend rally.  In other words, the main medium term trend is still down overall. The pullback from the highs retraced a Fibonacci 61% almost to exactness, and then pushed back to 1100 before this latest pullback where it now brings us to the 1085 level.  On this short term basis, price needs to hold at or near that 1072 level in order to maintain the current upswing.  A close below 1065 and then 1055 would warn that gold is once again weakening and will open up the potential for gold to move to new lows under 1040. Support is the 1070-1080 area and resistance is 1097-1107.  It takes a close above 1114 to favor higher prices into February.  A close below 1065 would put a bearish short term damper on gold.  (Subscribers to gold trends went long gold at 1072 (just one dollar above the low established on the pullback for a short term trade). Lets now go look at the short term cycles.


Gold Cycles

The next short term cycle turn is Jan 23rd (plus or minus 72 hours).  That means that the gold window for an upturn begins tomorrow but could be as late as next week.  We discussed on the website updates that gold was expected to pullback this week from that push we got from 1072 to 1100.  That pullback is taking place and now its a matter of when gold makes this next short term low on the blue cycle.  These cycles work about 70% of the time at the turns.  The other 30% are called inversions.  This is when prices don't turn on a cycle window but instead move in the same direction until the next cycle.  When that happens, the colors rotate and the red becomes the place on the chart where bottoms occur and vice versa.  In summary, we are looking for gold to establish a short term low within the upcoming blue cycle and  then rally into the week of Feb 9th.  Odds on that are about 70%. Since the pattern is choppy and overlapping its good to be careful because it does warn that this rebound (so far) is a weak one.  In other words,  there is more of a chance of inversions occurring when the market is rallying in a counter trend move.  Keep that in mind.   

Should the blue cycle make a low, the next rally into Feb would initially target the 1122-1127 area.  



Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

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