by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Bill Downey, of Gold Trends.net, LLC, is an Independent Investment Analyst with over twenty years of study. YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this WEBSITE AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. Do your own due diligence. No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. The author intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations.

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Gold Long Term Technical Price Points

17 May 2016 10:35 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

Gold Long Term (Moving Averages – 1220-1275) Neutral

Long Term Trend ~ long term trend has moved from Bearish to Neutral as price is above the lowest average on the monthly close. For long term trend to resume to bullish, the blue average will have to cross above the red. Remember this is not a timing tool but long term trend direction. The Long term trend moved to bullish in July of 2002 at $303 gold. It remained bullish until April 2013 when price collapsed below the Blue moving average in the 1480-1520 area. That put the trend to NEUTRAL. It then turned to bearish on Jan 31 2014 at 1239. It remained bearish until Feb 29, 2016 when the month closed above the blue moving average at 1235 putting the trend back to Neutral. And it is still a weak neutral. In other words price is near the threshold from bearish and neutral. But it is better than bearish. A close above 1322 will add a lot of strength to the “weak” neutral.

At literally the same price point as the red moving average is the Fibonacci 38% retracement (that dotted line). Thus 1272 is a key pivot point where the bulls and bears are fighting it out for control.

Finally is the 2015 yearly high at 1307. In order to label something a long term uptrend (unless we’re talking 20-40 years. But in order to label it long term uptrend, the minimum requirement is to exceed a previous year’s high. While we don’t use that component in our gauge, I’ve noted it because it is important resistance. The 2015 high was 1307, and this year’s high is 1303.

The last component measures the 89 month moving average and that is the 1319-1322 resistance zone. That’s the last resistance before 1400. In summary, resistance is the 1294-1307 area and 1314-1322. Above that and we’re heading for 1400. On the downside, support is the 1222-1255 area and 1150-1172.

The next key event that has to take place on the long term is for gold to get a monthly close above 1319-1322. This is the last long term resistance point on the chart until 1400-1438.

A monthly close below 1222 raises a caution flag but overall, it takes (at the moment) a monthly close below 1122 for the long term trend to flip back to Bearish.


Here’s another monthly view of the entire 21st Century Bull market.

The key is getting above the 2015 yearly high at 1307 and attacking the 89 month resistance at 1319-1322 which is the Fibonacci 89 month moving blue average. Then the 2011 downtrend line at 1425-1450. These are the last two resistance areas until final Fibonacci resistance in the 1530-1550 area.

In summary, the long term uptrend remains intact at the 21st Century trend line and the three final long term resistance points are defined below (1319-1322) (1425-1450) and 1530. Much higher prices are in store as we move towards 2018-2023.



Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

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