Short Term – Bullish (near resistance & short term cycle turn)
The last website subscriber update odds favored 1261-1272 as resistance and we got 1261 high since then. Support had been listed at 1230-1239 and low has been 1239.90 (spot prices). We favored lower into this time frame, on a close below 1239-1244. While we got as low as 1239, we did not close below.
As you can see price has been moving sideways refusing to sell off. That’s usually bullish. So is hanging around a trend line for so long. So is hanging around a moving average for so long. It’s hard for me to be anything but bullish at the moment. Especially with the short term cycle turn arriving (see cycles). The one thing however, is the downtrend line at 1261 and 1272-1275 areas are strong resistance. We plow there and odds favor the upper gold channel will be hit.
Watch 1261-1275 for resistance zone & the dual upper channel resistance area.
While I will look at the 50 and 200 day averages to see what everyone else is looking at - I personally watch Fibonacci 89 & 233 Day Moving Averages. They do a good job defining the intermediate term trend as well as key support and resistance tests to watch.
Summary – Odds favor a bottom between now and early next week and a move higher into the last week of April. That`s the odds favored scenario. A close below 1222 means somethings not right with the forecast. It’s best to keep in mind that APRIL is often (not always) but often a choppy affair. The political DYNAMITE & CIVIL UNREST surfacing globally is most likely the catalyst (FEAR) that gold has been waiting for.
There are odds in markets but no absolutes. The odds favor if gold takes out that downtrend line above the 233 day average, and pushes above 1275, we should see the upper channel tested.
Last update favored a turn down from the red cycle of March 28th to the blue cycle due on April 11th (plus or minus 72 hours).
The NFP (Non Farm Payroll) comes out on Friday at 8:30 AM. It's often a turning point for gold.
From a cycle standpoint the ideal date is April 11th (plus or minus 72 hours). That means that the window opens on Saturday. So for gold to turn on Friday certainly would still be in context of a turn. I say that because so far, gold has been REFUSING to do anything but go sideways. That often is a clue that gold has underlying strength.
Odds favor gold is just waiting for the window to turn up. I say odds, because as you know there are no absolutes. With that said, odds are high we get a turn on Friday or early next week.
There is no one indicator that works all the time. What one looks for is something that works 75% of the time.
Thus odds favor gold makes turns up either Friday or early week and moves higher into the next red cycle due April 26th (plus or minus 72 hours) which is the next red cycle date.
A weekly close below 1222 anytime after next Wednesday will favor a short term cycle failure and will invalidate this short term forecast.