by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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The 21st Century Gold and Silver Bull Market - Part 1 of 3

28 Nov 2011 6:38 PM | Deleted user
November 26 2011

GOLD
The long term monthly chart shows us three major support area's. We are approaching the first support area in the 1570-1630 area where the 23% retrace area and the mid way channel lines. When long term markets under go a big correction, the 38% retrace area is the most often seen retracement. The 1381-1445 area seems like a low price when we first hear it but in the context of this bull market run and the chart below, it would be a normal long term correction. Finally the lower line at the 1100-1150 area would constitute a 61% retracement level. This is the least favored scenario for this correction but is still within the standard price range of this bull market.
.Gold Monthly Price Chart
SILVER

The longer term monthly chart shows the most important line we have is the long term Blue Line. All through the Bull market this line provided resistance until the 2011 breakout. But it was too much too fast. The crash of 2011 has brought silver back to this all important line. Silver has been trying to build a base at this long term trend line. We'll be watching the monthly close carefully at the end of this month. Last weeks close just about at the trend line.

On a longer term basis, our silver button has been listing since the end of the first leg of the crash in May that the historical odds favored a 6 - 12 month corrective time period. We are now on month seven. This weeks close is once again at dangerous levels for silver prices. The coming monthly close will be important for silver to be above this long term blue line.
Silver

A zoom in of the silver chart shows a most troublesome pattern that needs to be watched very carefully here. We've already had two major sell off's since May and the current chart pattern is approaching danger area's if the 30-31 dollar area start letting go.Silver Daily Price Chart

The world of Fractal's
One of the greatest traders of our time, W. D. Gann said, "If you want to know the future, study the past." The chart below is the same HUI chart as above except the "FRACTAL" repetitive pattern has been added to the view. If you look closely, the fractal keeps getting bigger and repeating. We're currently on the "5th Fractal" of the 21st Century Bull market. The pattern is not "exact" as chaos theory gives it just enough of a twist so instead of "twins" we get brothers and sisters if you will. At least now we have a gauge. And we can see---- that if there is to be a correction --- its somewhere in this part of the Fractal that its most likely to happen. Once complete --- another larger Fractal will be due.

Hui Monnthly Fractal Chart Pattern


The US Stock market

The weekly price chart shows the rebound in the stock market has been precise on our channel hits. The most important technical development is that the 34 week moving averages have given their first sell signal since the crash as the red moving average is above the blue average -- and price is below both of the averages.
Spy Weekly Price Chart

US Dollar

It's decision time for the US dollar ---- as the BLUE moving averages is knocking on the door. A move above the RED line and the upper channel would put the "trend" in the dollar up ------------ for the first time in 6 YEARS. We also had our first Daily buy signal in 18 months (not shown).
Dollar Weekly Price Chart

Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

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