by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
Follow Our Socials!

Click here to see the GoldTrends.net Google Plus page and subscribe! Click here to see the GoldTrends.net Facebook page and subscribe! Click here to see the GoldTrends.net Twitter page and subscribe! Click here to see outhe GoldTrends.net LinkedIn page and subscribe! Click here to see the GoldTrends.net YouTube Channel and subscribe! Click here to see the GoldTrends.net RSS feed list and subscribe!

Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

Kitco



Bill Downey, of Gold Trends.net, LLC, is an Independent Investment Analyst with over twenty years of study. YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this WEBSITE AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. Do your own due diligence. No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. The author intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations.

US. Government Required Disclaimer

Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

 

 

Gold and Silver Update

04 Jan 2012 5:20 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

We are just about done our Monthly report for January with the 2012 forcast. Last year we published our 2011 forecast for gold on the chart below. The green circled area was our monthly price projection for 2011. The red circled area was the actual price for the year. we have completed the 2012 outlook and we hope to have the monthly acompleted by next week at the latest. (as a preview it calls for the 2012 low to be in March/April timeframe near the 1400 area).

Last year's projection called for a price high of about 1840 as a high for the year and the actual was 1922. The price high did come earlier than the projection as November was the favored candidate and September was the intra day high and August was the closing monthly high. The projection called for only one correction for 2011, in mid year during July and August. The actual correction began in late August and bottomed in September. It projected a low of around 1550 as the pullback low and the September low was 1532. Finally, it did call for a lower low in December but projected a close above 1700 for the year and price came in at 1540. The original chart can be seen on the Monthly Button (January 2011)

Gold Monthly 2011 Forecast vs Results

 

For those who follow GLD -- the gold ETF --- last weeks low was a direct hit off off a long term support line. The bounce back up has come to the moving averages ---- and the 159-161 area should be resistance on Thursday ---- the ADP report in the morning should set the Pace for Gold and equities.

GLD Gold ETF price chart with moving averages and channel lines

 

Silver and the 21st Century Bull Market

Tonight's look at silver uses SLV --- the silver ETF. A major low might be in the making, but as you can see, this has been a major crash and a three dollar move in silver --- 10% ---- still leaves a long way to go. NO TRENDS HAVE yet turned up. This so far is just a bounce. It has the chance of being a key low --- but how many times have you heard that in the last 8 months ... that the low is in. Not one from here. I'm not ready to say it ------ but i'm watching this one carefully. There was major US MINT sales to open the year ----levels that have not been seen before. That should be enough to keep this bounce going. Watch the ADP on Thursday and the Non-Farm Payroll on Friday. If those are bullish -- silver can get a nice move up here.

SLV Silver ETF Price Chart with moving averages and channel lines

 

Hui Gold Stock Index

The HUI gold index has been in a massive choppy and overlapping pattern all year. This is now the 5th time we hold the 480 area in the HUI. This area is the line in the sand area we've watched for a full year. A break below this area would warn of a test into the 400 area. The medium term trend remains neutral --- and yet another bounce attempt is underway. As long as we're above the 480 area on the HUI --- the trend has not GIVEN way to the downside.

Hui Gold Index Price Chart with moving averages and channel lines

 

The US Stock market

The stock market is nearing major resistance --- and is an area that need be watched carefully for a peak. The first few days of January should provide a rally -- but after that we need to be on guard. If price can hurdle this area, we'll reconsider.

Spy Price Chart with daily moving averages and trend lines

 

US Dollar

The US dollar remains in an uptrend and is trying to give a long term buy signal. This 80-83 area will be a major turn point in 2012

US Dollar Monthly Price Chart with Long Term Channel Lines

 

The EURO remains in a downtrend and is at a long term lower support line. The medium term trend remains down. Price still needs to take out these area's of LINE support. More interesting is there is a long term INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern that has formed. What on earth could provide support to the EURO in this area ?

By holding euros today, you are betting that you are in fact holding a new form of
deutschmark --- !!!!!

Euro Weekly Price Chart with Trend Channels

 

Buttonwood Turn Dates

The group is working on refining many aspects and is also studying if there are longer term signals that can be extracted from the data they use. Buttonwood dates usually emit a trend change -- or an acceleration in price. As in all timing indicators --- there is no holy grail.

To be on the Buttonwood e-mail and distribution list write to goldtrends@gmail.com PLEASE WRITE SUBSCRIBE in the SUBJECT LINE ON YOUR E-MAIL. Thank you !!!

GDXJ Daily Buttonwood Turn Dates

 

January 4 2011 -- Seasonal Update

The longer term seasonals show that the February area is a great place for a first quarter top and that is what we will favor. We'll look for a pullback into the week of Jan 9th and then a push up into the 3rd week of January and then a pullbac near month end. If price makes a high near Jan 9th -- then we'll look for a pullback instead to the third week of January.

http://www.mrci.com/web/index.php(chart below Moore Research)

Gold Seasonal Price Chart 34 Year

If you'd like a free trial to the web site, send me an email at goldtrends@gmail.com

THE Long Term Silver Chart -- Moore Research

Silver Monthly Price Chart Long Term 1972 to 2012


Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

Copyright  2008 - 2015  Gold Trends.net, LLC               Email: info@goldtrends.net

Powered by Wild Apricot Membership Software