by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
Follow Our Socials!

Click here to see the GoldTrends.net Google Plus page and subscribe! Click here to see the GoldTrends.net Facebook page and subscribe! Click here to see the GoldTrends.net Twitter page and subscribe! Click here to see outhe GoldTrends.net LinkedIn page and subscribe! Click here to see the GoldTrends.net YouTube Channel and subscribe! Click here to see the GoldTrends.net RSS feed list and subscribe!

Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

Kitco



Bill Downey, of Gold Trends.net, LLC, is an Independent Investment Analyst with over twenty years of study. YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this WEBSITE AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. Do your own due diligence. No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. The author intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations.

US. Government Required Disclaimer

Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

 

 

Gold and Silver Update

12 Jan 2012 9:03 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

The long term bull market in gold has been and is undergoing a long term correction. As you can see by the chart below, gold completed a 144 month Fibonacci bull market wave. The last 34 Fibonacci months was from the crash of 2008 to the peak last August. This correction is in line with long term price waves. The correction should last longer from a time perspective. Candidates range from 3,5,8 and 13 months. Our current outlook is for March/April to be the favored time range for a 2012 turn point. It is the favored but from a long term perspective, a more reasonable expectation would be for an event that took place during year 6  the half way point of this current wave.) There we say a high in May of 2006 and began a sideways correction that took almost 17 months (1/2 of 34 months) to complete but then only two months to make an all time new high when the move began. Thus it is possible that this pullback will take longer than most of us think. I'm reading a book called the Spiral Calander that reader Dave G sent me. So there's moore to come once I finish reading it.

Finally, the middle Gann line and the adaptive moving average at 1544 just happen to be where the 23% retrace number resides and all three have met up for a test of the long term. Thus this area is a very important test of the long term. One that we have to keep an eye on as to where the January Low ends up listing. So far the 1564 print open of 2012 is the low. Watch the 1500-1530 area as it is a very long term support area that is important. (Overlay by www.gunner24.com)

Gold Monthly Price Chart with Long Term Support Price

A zoom in closer on the weekly chart shows a 26 week cycle at play. All year we've advocated that a liquidity squeeze would resemble 2008 and that would be the only fundamental that could bring us a correction in 2011. Note how the action is playing out almost exactly as in 2008. If we are following this time line the final low is not yet complete. The February timeframe is when the next cycle is due. A mid February high will suggest a March/April low. It doesn't have to be lower then the December low, but should still set up the Spring buy point.

Gold Weekly Price Chart with Long Term Channels

Long term = Up / Medium Term = Neutral to down / Intermediate term= down / Short term=Neutral

Silver is attempting to bounce back to 30 dollars ad is arriving at the moving averages. Resistance is the BLUE channel line.

Silver Daily Price Chart with Moving Averages

 

Hui Gold Stock Index
The HUI gold index has been in a massive choppy and overlapping pattern all year. This is now the 5th time we hold the 480 area in the HUI. This area is the line in the sand area we've watched for a full year. A break below this area would warn of a test into the 400 area. The medium term trend remains neutral and yet another bounce attempt is underway. As long as we're above the 480 area on the HUI, the trend has not GIVEN way to the downside.

HUI Daily Price Chart 

 

The US Stock Market
The stock market is nearing major resistance and is an area that need be watched carefully for a peak. The first few days of January should provide a rally but after that we need to be on guard. If price can hurdle this area, we'll reconsider.

SPY Daily Price Chart with Moving Averages

 

US Dollar
The US dollar remains in an intermediate up trend and is trying to improve its bullish status from weekly to Monthly. This 80-83 area will be a major turn point in 2012 which decides whether we move to the 90 area or turn back down. The trend remains up but price is at YEARLY RESISTANCE at it's challenging the 2010 highs. A new yearly HIGH above the last would be the first one I remember for a while. It's certainly a long term price point as the long term red and blue moving averages have finally come back together and are drifting sideways. This is happening at a time when PRICE IS ALSO right at the moving averages at at the EDGE OF THE LONG TERM downtrend channel line. It's the most important PIVOT spot for price in the last five years. Manipulated or not, the US Dollar made is all time low some 37 months ago and the LONG TERM TREND is ready to go from BEARISH to NEUTRAL. It might not sound like much, but it's opening the door for a rally to a minimum of 87 and up to 92 on the INDEX. If that happens, it suggests that the liquidity crunch will get much more SEVERE and bring on danger levels to the global financial centers as world money flows head for the biggest liquid market.

Dollar Price Chart with Lon gTerm Channel


The EURO remains in a downtrend and is at a long term lower support line. The medium term trend remains down. Price still needs to take out these area's of LINE support. More interesting is there is a long term INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern that has formed. What on earth could provide support to the EURO in this area? By holding euros today, you are betting that you are in fact holding a new form of deutschmark!

Euro Weekly Price Chart with Channels

 

Buttonwood Turn Dates

The group is working on refining many aspects and is also studying if there are longer term signals that can be extracted from the data they use. Buttonwood dates usually emit a trend change, or an acceleration in price. As in all timing indicators, there is no holy grail.

Want to receive Buttonwood e-mail? Email info@goldtrends.net with the Subject "Subscribe to Buttonwoods".

To read more of our Buttonwood's update, click the new button in menu (left).  All welcome.  You'll find more charts too.

The Forecasted Buttonwood date for a DEC 15th low was RIGHT ON THE DAY.  The next short term trend was the 28th and 29th which produced the low we just saw and now we have arrived at the next key date, Jan 4th. So far that was the high on this bounce. The next turn date is Jan 12-13th time frame. If we exceed last weeks' high on a closing basis, it will suggest higher to the next date. Otherwise, with stochastic's near a turn, the potential is that this was the peak and we're heading down to this next date (end of this coming week). A close below that last hammer bar on this price chart would favor the move down to the 12th is in play.

Buttonwood Daily Cycle Timer

January 1 2012 ~ SEASONAL UPDATE
The longer term seasonals show that the February area is a great place for a first quarter top and that is what we will favor. We'll look for a pullback into the week of Jan 9th and then a push up into the 3rd week of January and then a pullback near month end. If price makes a high near Jan 9th, then we'll look for a pullback instead to the third week of January.

http://www.mrci.com/web/index.php  (chart below Moore Research)

Seasonal Price Chart


Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

Copyright  2008 - 2015  Gold Trends.net, LLC               Email: info@goldtrends.net

Powered by Wild Apricot Membership Software