by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Bill Downey, of Gold Trends.net, LLC, is an Independent Investment Analyst with over twenty years of study. YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this WEBSITE AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. Do your own due diligence. No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. The author intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations.

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  • 07 Aug 2018 5:45 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

     GOLD IN THE 21st CENTURY

    In order to verify the importance of the 1366 area, we have one other LONG TERM TREND INDICATOR and that is the FIBONACCI 89 month moving average.

    When gold is above the 89 month moving average, the long term trend is bullish. When it’s below the average, its trend is bearish. Look how price has been rejected the last three months when we arrive at the moving average at 1366. When we remove all opinion and crunch the numbers it tells us that ODDS FAVOR the long term trend UP in gold will only resume once we close above 1366 on a monthly basis. This hurdle has to be removed for us to say with evidence that the long term trend up in gold has resumed.


    Summary

    When we remove all opinion and just crunch the numbers, in order to say the long term trend of gold is up (and to be able to back it up) would be to have price above the FIBONACCI 89 month moving average as support & not resistance.

  • 01 Mar 2018 2:11 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)


    The Reason for Gold

    Over the long term, value, wealth, and money perception shifts from hard assets to paper assets and from Public to Private. There’s hard cash (metal) and cold cash (paper). Historically, paper has always failed. Odds favor the shift back to hard assets as value and wealth will occur due to a coming debt default and currency crisis.

    There is only one event that can explain where we are today.

    The most important event of the 20th century was taking the reserve currency off the gold standard. Odds favor the most important event of the 21st century will be putting it back on.


    Monthly Closing Observations;

    Let’s look at some monthly charts

    GOLD

    I’ll start with the last sentence from the last report to our subscribers and let that lead into the discussion.

    “Odds are gold remains in a trade range for the moment of 1304-1366”.

    Since that last update, the high has been 1362 and the low has been 1313. Our main premise for that statement was that odds favored an inside month in February (lower than Jan’s high but higher than Jan’s low) and February did end up being an inside month.


    How important is an inside bar on a chart?

    Often enough to pay attention to it because important TRENDS often take place after an inside bar.

    An inside month can often (but not always) be a warning that a trend change is about to develop. But beware as fakeout's in all markets can and at times do take place. Here is an example using a gold daily chart in 2015 showing a fake out.

    Notice that price first broke above the bar but then quickly reversed and once it took out the low on the INSIDE bar, a meaningful TREND ensued. In this example its a downtrend, but it often works the same way when an uptrend is selected.


    Thus as we hit March, the opposite could also take place where gold would take out the JANUARY LOW at 1304 and then reverse higher.

    Let’s look at the yearly gold chart.

    Isn’t it interesting that gold had a DOUBLE INSIDE YEAR before the 21st century gold bull market began?

    Isn’t it interesting that gold had an inside year in 2012 and a 5 year bear market has taken place?

    Isn’t it interesting that gold had an inside year in 2017?


    Summary

    The bottom line is we should be on guard for favoring gold to EXIT (one way or another) the current 1304-1366 price range and form a more meaningful trend thereafter. For the bulls, it’s just one more factor on how important it is for gold to get above the 1366-1388 price range. For bears (and bulls), watch 1290. If gold closes below there, it should return towards 1200-1250 area.

    FOR THE UPSIDE to be selected, the trend line change on the chart has to be taken out for odds to favor the upside. And that means Gold needs to take out 1366-1388. It’s the most important number in gold right now.


    Until 1366-1388 is taken out, let’s remain very cautious here and not rule out any more downside just yet. Let’s also keep the inside year scenario on our radar.

    A monthly close above 1366-1388 favors that the move from the inside year is HIGHER.   That's the price point to remember.

  • 18 Jan 2018 5:28 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    GOLD IN THE 21st CENTURY

    In order to verify the importance of the 1364 area, we have one other LONG TERM TREND INDICATOR and that is the FIBONACCI 89 month moving average. We’ve used and shown this chart before.


    When gold is above the 89 month moving average, the long term trend is bullish. When it’s below the average, the trend is bearish. Look how price has been rejected the last three times we hit the moving average. Note how the moving average is at 1366. When we remove all opinion and crunch the numbers it tells us that ODDS FAVOR the long term trend UP in gold will only resume once we close above 1366 on a monthly basis. This hurdle has to be removed for us to say with evidence that the long term trend up in gold has resumed. Until then, we cannot rule out a final plunge lower.

    Summary

    When we remove all opinion and just crunch the numbers, in order to say the long term trend of gold is up (and to be able to back it up) would be to have price above the FIBONACCI 89 month moving average as support & not resistance.


  • 07 Dec 2017 2:15 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)
    Launch GoldTrends.net    



    A Signal Trade has occurred on GoldTrends.Net


    With the NFP report on Friday (tomorrow) and gold just remaining weak, I decided to have another look at the situation.

    Let's look at a weekly chart

    Here we see the potential to trade down the black dotted downtrend line near 1238.



    From a fibonacci standpoint we show that the 61.8% level has been broken.  Often prices will move to the 78.6% area.  It just so happens that price area is 1237.90 



    While it is still possible for gold to bottom near 1247,  my stop is right near the 78% retracement. 

    With NFP and FED FOMC meeting next week,  I still can't eliminate even 1204 and 1222.

    The 1237 area is only 15 bucks away and that can be child's play during NFP.  

    I'm going to cancel my current order and  replace my buy to 1238.80 spot.  Silver stays the same for now.

    NEW ORDER BELOW --- REPLACES OLD  

    ==================================================
    GOLD CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================
    Buy 1 Contract gold 1238.80 spot

    Stop loss 1231.80  -- risk $7 dollars per ounce

    No target yet

    YTD = Gain $ 141.50 per ounce
    ==================================================
    SILVER CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================
    Buy 1 silver contract 15.35 spot

    Stop loss 14.79 

    No target yet

    YTD = Gain $4.73 per ounce


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     Follow us on Twitter at @goldtrendsnet (no period)
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    Disclaimer
    The analyst intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations. Do your own diligence. This is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any commodity or stock. The analyst is merely listing one of the trades for his own account and what you do with that information is entirely up to you.  The analyst lists his trades as soon as possible but due to his style there are times he has bought or sold a position based on the PATTERNS that have been presented at the moment.  On those occasions, be aware that you will receive information of a buy or sell point that analyst has ALREADY TAKEN FOR HIS OWN ACCOUNT. While that is not the intention, we want to make sure you know that it does happen. We are not brokers---we are traders. We DO provide trade orders we have PLACED as soon as we decide, but due to style there will be times we have already entered or exited and we make you aware of that in each update.


  • 07 Dec 2017 8:41 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)
    Launch GoldTrends.net    


    The main line of support seems to lie in the 1222-1246 area in gold.  It's the 2011 downtrend line.  



    That 1249.95 area is where the control boys might be trying to take out  ?



    Blue cycle at the turn point as well




    Odds also favor a medium term buy point is near set up as well 



    What about Risk ?

    This is a medium term move.   I can't eliminate a move to 1200-1222 on the big picture for this low.  Keep that in mind.

    NFP REPORT ON FRIDAY AND FED FOMC MEETING NEXT WEEK.  

    Summary

    Odds favor an important low between Dec 3rd - Jan 3rd.  

    There are no absolutes,  only odds.

    I buy gold at 1247 spot and silver at 15.35.  Orders are below


    ==================================================
    GOLD CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================
    Buy 1 contract gold 1247 spot

    No target yet

    Stop loss sell point = 1235 spot (for now)

    YTD Gain = $141.50 per ounce

    ==================================================
    SILVER CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================
    Buy 1 contract silver 15.35 spot

    No target yet

    Stop loss sell point 14.80 spot

    YTD Gain = $4.73 per ounce
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
     Follow us on Twitter at @goldtrendsnet (no period)
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Disclaimer
    The analyst intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations. Do your own diligence. This is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any commodity or stock. The analyst is merely listing one of the trades for his own account and what you do with that information is entirely up to you.  The analyst lists his trades as soon as possible but due to his style there are times he has bought or sold a position based on the PATTERNS that have been presented at the moment.  On those occasions, be aware that you will receive information of a buy or sell point that analyst has ALREADY TAKEN FOR HIS OWN ACCOUNT. While that is not the intention, we want to make sure you know that it does happen. We are not brokers---we are traders. We DO provide trade orders we have PLACED as soon as we decide, but due to style there will be times we have already entered or exited and we make you aware of that in each update.


  • 20 Nov 2017 12:04 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Launch GoldTrends.net  


    At the moment,  odds (not absolutes) favor gold as putting in a high on our cycles chart.    The next blue cycle is Due Dec 3rd - plus or minus 72 hours (which happens to be the 2 year anniversary of the low at 1045 for this bear market).   




    Because of the tightness of the range, even though it's not the odds,  it is not impossible that the chart could be interpreted like the one below.  It is NOT the odds favored,  but it can't be ruled out yet.  


    What would favor this scenario.   A close above 1297-1308.  A close above 1308 will favor higher prices into Dec 3rd.   





    There are many opinions in the market.   But in the end,  the market offers ODDS, and not absolutes.


    The red cycle window closes after trade on Tuesday. Any new closing high above 1300 after Wednesday, should be a warning sign and any close above 1308 will favor higher into Dec 3rd.   Otherwise, favor a the top is in and lower from here.


    First support comes in around 1277.    There should be some support at 1268-1272 and at 1261-1265.   




    Finally,  the choppy overlapping structure of what has happened in November favors the downside still being in charge since the September high at 1362.   Only a close above 1297-1308 would change things on the short term.


    ==================================================
    GOLD CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================
    no current trade


    YTD = Gain $ 141.50 per oz


    ==================================================
    SILVER CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================

    no current trade


    YTD = Gain $ 4.34



    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

     Follow us on Twitter at @goldtrendsnet (no period)
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Disclaimer
    The analyst intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations. Do your own diligence. This is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any commodity or stock. The analyst is merely listing one of the trades for his own account and what you do with that information is entirely up to you.  The analyst lists his trades as soon as possible but due to his style there are times he has bought or sold a position based on the PATTERNS that have been presented at the moment.  On those occasions, be aware that you will receive information of a buy or sell point that analyst has ALREADY TAKEN FOR HIS OWN ACCOUNT. While that is not the intention, we want to make sure you know that it does happen. We are not brokers---we are traders. We DO provide trade orders we have PLACED as soon as we decide, but due to style there will be times we have already entered or exited and we make you aware of that in each update.


  • 30 Oct 2017 3:08 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Cycles

    Gold is getting its pullback into the next Blue cycle low due Nov 4th (plus or minus 72 hours). That means a low later this week or early next week. With the FOMC meeting on Tuesday/Wednesday and the NFP report being out Friday, odds favor the lows will occur the 2nd half of this week or early next week. Either way, a blue cycle low favors bullish for gold in November.


    Summary

    Odds favor the downtrend remains in play going into Nov 4th (+/- 72 hours). Thus the gold window opens on Tuesday. Don’t forget the NFP report on Friday and the FED FOMC on Tuesday & Wednesday.


  • 30 Sep 2017 9:07 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)


    Gold Cycles

    On the chart below we see how the blue cycles have picked the lows when gold became bullish and the highs when gold became bearish on the intermediate term. The next blue gold cycle is October 5th (plus or minus 72 hours). A blue cycle low would have the odds favor a gold bottom and a return to a BULLISH cycle posture on the intermediate term. Odds favor either 1272-1282 or 1247-1262 as the two places most likely to bottom on this gold pullback ideally on Oct 5th (plus or minus 72 hours).


    What I don’t want to see in cycles

    Because we have hit important support near 1280, it is not out of the question for gold to begin a bounce here that leads to 1298-1308 or even 1322 into the blue cycle. If that happens, the intermediate term will remain bearish.


    Short Term


  • 11 Sep 2017 11:01 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Cycles

    Our last update on the website discussed:

    Odds favor a pullback or sideways action towards the next coming blue cycle on Sept 6th (plus or minus 72 hours). But a close above 1298 will favor higher into Sept 6th.

    We got our close above 1298 on August 28th and indeed gold moved higher into Sept 6th.

    Odds favor that a pullback into Sept 20th (plus/Minus 72 hours) is underway. From there gold should begin another short term rally into early October. However, with a Blue Cycle high we should be cautious that a more prolonged correction in gold could take place.



  • 23 Aug 2017 1:08 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Long Term TREND – Moving Averages (Blue 1212-Red 1213 = NEUTRAL

    Blue Average must cross above Red for FULL BULLISH. Averages are within 1 dollar of each other. Long term trend near flipping BULLISH.

    Long Term Observations

    Gold tested the moving averages at 1209-1214 in July. It got as low as 1204 but closed the week above both averages keeping the long term trend neutral. We discussed a close below 1205 would not be good but gold held and has now rallied back to the 2011 downtrend line. It runs in the 1272-1298 zone area. The biggest resistance is 1272-1288 at the moment and then 1308-1322. A monthly close above these area’s would greatly increase the potential that the bear market is over. The moving averages are ready to turn bullish as well. This is yet another moment of truth for long term gold.


    From time cycles it is important to note that the rally into 2011 lasted 144 months. July will be the 72nd month and half the time of the 2011 rally. If there is to be a 2nd half of the year that is meaningful, odds favor the low will occur in July. While certainly not definite, it happens enough times to keep a watch out for.


    The last Long term window forecast was for “the” low to take place between Dec 2015-March 2016 and December 2015 was the low so far. But with that forecast gold has to conquer the 2011 downtrend line. Until it does, I can’t rule out one more final low.

    A monthly close above 1362 would be the highest odds favor that the BULL MARKET in gold is back on.


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