by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Bill Downey, of Gold Trends.net, LLC, is an Independent Investment Analyst with over twenty years of study. YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this WEBSITE AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. Do your own due diligence. No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. The author intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations.

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  • 29 May 2015 1:38 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    De-Dollarization Du Jour: Russia Backs BRICS Alternative To SWIFT

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/29/2015 

    Russia is moving to undercut a critical financial communications link by creating an alternative system backed by the world's rising EM powerhouses who are set to officially launch their own development bank when they convene in July. At the same time, Moscow will consider cementing its economic ties with regional allies via the establishment of a currency bloc.


    China Deploys Artillery on "Sand Castles" In South China Sea
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/29/2015 

    "U.S. surveillance imagery shows China has positioned weaponry on one of the artificial islands it is developing in the South China Sea," WSJ reports. US Defense Secretary says the US will "fly, sail, and operate" wherever it wants.



    Gold Short Term

    Gold has been doing absolutely nothing but trading sideways in an ever tightening range as it mulls over the current situation of global contraction, negative interest rates, a surging US dollar and related currency wars and conventional, financial and cyberspace wars in the making.  An attempt to break above 1225 was initiated in May and it lasted a full 8 hours before succumbing back below 1225.  On the other side of the trade is there has been 8 attempts to crack 1172-1182 (our yearly pivot numbers) since the last medium term cycle (Week of March 17-23) and so far price traded once at 1168 for about 10 minutes before moving back above 1172.   And that is the bottom line.  Any close below 1163-1167 favors the downside towards 1130-1150 and potentially lower.    

    On the upside current resistance (since Tuesday) is 1193-1198.   Any close above that level and then 1204 will give a slight edge to the bulls and potentially a move back up to 1225-1244 going into mid June.   IF we do close below 1163-1167, then favor new lows into mid June.


     

    Cycles

    The next cycle turn is due June 2nd (plus or minus 72 hours) and thus the window is open for a low to develop in this timeframe.   Usually odds are 75-80% on our cycle turns.   THIS CURRENT TURN only has a 65% odds favored turn.  That means if we close below 1163-1167 after June 5th,  expect the cycle to INVERT and move lower into mid month.   This cycle happens only 4 times per year and where the odds for an inversion is greater, but on average, this is where the biggest moves in price are most likely to occur as well.   Most likely is not most ABSOLUTELY, as there are no guarantees in trading, there are only odds.

    Look for a low to establish and  try and move higher to mid month.   Any close below 1163-1167 after June 5th will favor the opposite.

    gold cycles

    Silver

    The one thing is silver continues to hold at the moving averages and seems to be a bit stronger than gold.  That USUALLY (not absolutely) means that the metals could (not will) be gearing up for a rally.   In other words, it tends to favor an upside resolve.

    UNTIL GOLD CLOSES ABOVE 1194 the trend is down.   Above 1194, we can loosely use neutral and a close above 1205  should garner higher prices towards 1225-1244.




  • 26 May 2015 12:18 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    From our friends at www.zerohedge.com ---Pretty much sums up Tuesday morning so far.


    Our weekend update discussed the US Dollar 1st target pullback low of 91.50 – 93.00 had most likely been reached with the 93.17 low we saw and with price at a key channel line on our longer term weekly chart. 

    Here is the news or the spin (you decide) of the morning from main stream media.  

    Dollar hits 1-month high as periphery woes weigh on Europe
    LONDON  |  By Marc Jones (Reuters)

    Greece's financial crisis and signs of growing opposition to austerity in Spain sent the euro to its lowest level in a month on Tuesday, while shares and commodities took a knock as the dollar pushed higher.

    Europe's main markets returned to action after a long weekend with the mood unsettled by Sunday's strong local election showing by anti-austerity parties in Spain and with the clock ticking down on Greece's bid to get aid from the euro zone to stay afloat.

    Wall Street was expected to open down 0.2 percent, having also been closed on Monday and with the dollar still on the up after confident-sounding comments from Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen and solid inflation data at the end of last week. 

    Traders were bracing for a deluge of data ranging from manufacturing and services to house price and consumer confidence figures to gauge the recent state of the world's largest economy.

    The first flurry of numbers came from goods orders, which showed a solid increase in business investment plans for a second straight month.

    "The outlook for Fed policy normalization is again gaining traction and certainly with Greek risk there is nothing that would dampen this trend," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX strategy at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

    "There is good reason for continued dollar strength but if it goes too quickly we will see the same thing as happened in March and early April because there will be the question about what effect it will have (on the U.S. economy)." 

    The dollar was hovering at an eight-year high against the yen and a one-month peak against a basket of other big currencies.

    Europe's main stock markets had clawed back most of their early losses, while the euro was at $1.09 as the sell-off in southern euro zone debt markets eased despite the Greek and Spanish jitters.

    The earlier flight into safe-havens meant Switzerland's 10-year bond yields were back in negative territory for the first time this month, though. Spanish, Portuguese, and Greek bonds were all still in the red despite being calmer.

    Separately, it emerged that deputy finance ministers would hold a teleconference on Thursday to follow up on days of Greek negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Central Bank and European Commission.

    In the currency market, the dollar's move to a one-month high against its currency basket extended a rally triggered by Friday's robust inflation data and comments from Yellen that she expected the economy to strengthen.

    Her Vice Chair Stanley Fischer added in a speech in Israel on Monday that too much importance was being placed on the central bank's first rate hike, and it would take a few years to get rates back to more normal levels.

    "I think this has turned around and the dollar is back on a bullish trend," said Ian Stannard, head of European FX strategy with Morgan Stanley in London referring to the data.

    "The adjustment has now been completed and the dollar can now react to any positive news. Dollar yen breaking through the top of the range is an important event."

    The dollar index was last up 0.9 percent on the day at 96.861 having earlier been as high as 97.121. U.S. treasuries yields and volatility indexes .VIX had also nudged lower in European trading.

    With the greenback flexing its muscles, pressure remained on commodity markets, however. Gold, copper and most metals dipped while Brent oil slipped to $65.02 a barrel and U.S. crude  lost 0.7 percent to leave it at $59.31.

    (Additional reporting by Patrick Graham in Warsaw; Editing by John Stonestreet and Hugh Lawson)

    (END OF ARTICLE)

    GoldTrends readers know our view is that it will take real economic growth or an outright panic to levitate gold prices.  We advocate that rising interest rates (when they do finally begin) will be due to sheer panic and not global growth.   We believe we are in the final throws preceding a global economic collapse and a debt default that will change life as we know it.   We have referred to this as a liquidity squeeze and we have been saying since 2012 that it is coming.   We also turned bullish on the US dollar last may (the month it bottomed) and our view has been the liquidity squeeze will form as the US dollar gets bid higher and the rest of the world currencies move lower.  This is all due to LIQUIDITY and SAFE HAVEN concerns.   That is what negative rates are all about also.  Big money willing to pay to PARK money somewhere safe enough to get it back.

    We think it is possible that gold can very well react in the same manner as the crash of 2008 where it would spike lower with everything else and then make its bottom and reverse to much higher levels.   While the scenario could be the opposite, we will maintain our stance UNTIL THE CHARTS SHOW AN UPTREND and not a downtrend.

    Gold Chart

    Gold moved just high enough last week to clear the stops and has reversed lower back towards the PENNANT formation on the price chart.  It spent Thursday and Friday at the top of the channel line and now with markets reopen it is now testing the LOWER trend line.  And close below 1180 suggests that the 1172-1182 yearly closing price support will be tested and a close below 1167 will favor a move towards 1150.

    Support is 1182-1185 and then 1172-1178. Resistance is 1193-1198 for the remainder of today.
     


    Cycles

    The last cycle was due May 18th (plus or minus 72 hours) and the high on the move was exactly on the 18th.   The next cycle is due June 2nd (plus or minus 72 hours) and if we get a low, it will be exactly one year from the 2014 low at 1180 from which a rally into July 11th took place.  From a short term trade standpoint, I will be looking to take a long position then on a TRADE BASIS, and not a long term position.

    If things work out, gold could fool the summer crowd and rally into July and August.   More as it develops.

    For now, a low should establish itself at the end of this week or by June 5th at the latest.   We are watching it.
     


    Silver

    Silver is holding better than gold and is at the TOP of the wedge (and not the bottom like gold).   Support is 1646-1659 and 1609-1625.  Resitance is 1735-1775.  If a June gold low produces a potential July and August rally, silver will more than likely outperform.  Like gold, we will look for a low near June 2nd.   More as it develops.




  • 19 May 2015 2:47 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Charts and gold comments follow news headlines.


    News of the Day

    Housing Starts Surge to Highest Since Nov 2007, Permits At 7 Year Highs
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2015 -

    Following two ugly months of dramatically missed expectations, Housing Starts exploded to 'recovery' highs (highest since Nov 2007) jumping 20.2% MoM to 1.135million (against 1.015 exp.). This is the 2nd biggest MoM jump in history. Both single-family (3rd biggest MoM surge since the crisis peak) and multi-family starts surged. Permits also surged in April (jumping 10.1% MoM - the most since 2012) to 1.143 million (well above expectations) and the highest since June 2008.  and  Well these huge mal-investment spikes make perfect sense in light of the collapse in lumber prices (and thus demand).

    (NOTE – You can be sure some number was used to make the above look good – Editor GoldTrends)

    Commodity Carnage

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2015 

    The surge in the US Dollar and "good" housing data has created carnage in commodities. Silver, crude, copper, and gold are all getting hammered this morning as the S&P is unchanged as moar Q€ was trumped by hawkish "good" data.

    ECB Blames Leak To Hedge Funds On "Internal Procedural Error"
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2015  

    Shortly after 6pm London time yesterday, The ECB's Benoit Coeure told a non-public audience of hedge funds in London that "the central bank would moderately front-load its purchases in its quantitative easing program because of the seasonal lack of market liquidity in the summer." The reaction was a 50 pips drop in EURUSD... but this was inside information was not released to the trading public until around 8am London time - and resulted in a 150 pip plunge. In other words, a select private group of head funds in London were leaked ECB front-loading news 14 hours before The ECB deemed it 'correct' to publicly release the comments... due to what The ECB calls "an internal procedure error."

    The European Central Planning Bank Unhappy With Analysts' Euro Forecasts
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2015

    Things are getting more surreal by the moment. First the ECB leaks material, market moving information to hedge funds 12 hours before disclosing it to the entire world, and now the central bank that has taken central planning to the next level, is revealing its displeasure with how the quote unquote "market" has responded to the Euro. Via BBG:

    PRAET: SOME ANALYST FORECASTS ON THE EURO'S DEPRECIATION HAD GONE BEYOND WHAT ECB EXPECTED: WSJ

    Oddly no comment if the ECB's stealthy selling of Bunds to open up capacity for 15 more months of purchases also moved the massively illiquid market too far in the opposite direction.

    This Is Central Planning: A "World Of Activist Central Banks" Who "Manage Price Levels In Markets"
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2015 

    The bad news is that we are investing in a world where Graham and Dodd’s “Security Analysis” has become a quaint relic of simpler times, when the nuts and bolts of a company’s fundamental were meant to motivate how analysts viewed its prospects.

    Our thanks to www.zerohedge.com for the above news headlines.

    Gold 
    We discussed last night on the website a potential high for the week at 1234-1244 and the high on Monday was 1233.  We also discussed to be very careful even though gold had broken above 1225 that seasonal factors on average has gold peaking right around this time in May.

    Gold Seasonal price chart 1990-2009

    Gold Chart
    Gold got within a dollar or our target for the week of 1234-1244 on Monday.   Since then we have dropped back to the 2nd tier support level of 1198-1205 with a 1205 low so far today.   Support is now the 1193-1198 and 1172-1182.

     Gold price chart since 2015 high




    Cycles
    As discussed the next cycle turn was due yesterday (May 18th – plus or minus 72 hours) and it looks as though we may have gotten the cycle high.   If so then prices should move lower into the beginning of June.
     
    Gold Cycles

    Silver
    Silver is down a dollar from the Monday high at its lows today and hit a key short term support of 1687 in what looks like a technical selloff.  The rebound since then should encounter resistance at 1725 on Wednesday and then We’ll see.  Additional support is at 1605-1609 and 1650-1660.

    Silver price chart since 2015 high



  • 18 May 2015 11:17 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)


    Trend

    Long Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1389-1468 for neutral trend without bearish potential. The key resistance area’s to regain new bull market leg are 1792 and 1804-1830

    Medium Term ~ bearish– We need a monthly close above 1255 to neutralize the downtrend.

    Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– Resistance 119-122 in gold ETF GLD.

    Resistance for this week 1234-1244 and 2nd tier 1256-1264

    Support for this week 1209-1216 2nd tier 1192-1202

    Resistance listed for last week was 1198-1208 and 2nd tier 1222-1225 and the high was 1227. Support was listed at 1168-1172 and the low was 1178.

    Events~

    The FOMC minutes will be released Wednesday Afternoon.

     Economic Calendar (Bloomberg) for week of May 18th 2015


    For some time, we have been saying that the ultimate goal of those in charge at the moment is going to be the elimination of CASH as all of us eventually are put on PLASTIC.

    Europe has begun to move in this direction. In order to keep the Euro afloat, they must keep the banks solvent. But the bank reserves are debts of all the Euro nations. As government becomes insolvent as in Greece, the banking system debt turns worthless. The only way to prevent the banking collapse is to prevent people from withdrawing cash. As you will see below, the mainstream press is getting the people ready for what is coming - the elimination of cash. 

    Here is the article below and this is our future.

    How to end boom and bust: make cash illegal

    Comment: Forcing everyone to spend only by electronic means from an account held at a government-run bank would give the authorities far better tools to deal with recessions and economic booms.

    By Jim Leaviss

    This story is part of our "Money Lab" series, in which respected figures from the world of finance put forward controversial ideas for improving our personal finances or the economy. We will publish this story in print in "Your Money" this weekend along with the best comments from readers, so have your say below

    A proposed new law in Denmark could be the first step towards an economic revolution that sees physical currencies and normal bank account abolished and gives government futuristic new tools to fight the cycle of “boom and bust”.

    The Danish proposal sounds innocuous enough on the surface – it would simply allow shops to refuse payments in cash and insist that customers use contactless debit cards or some other means of electronic payment.

    Officially, the aim is to ease “administrative and financial burdens”, such as the cost of hiring a security service to send cash to the bank, and is part of a programme of reforms aimed at boosting growth – there is evidence that high cash usage in an economy acts as a drag.

    But the move could be a key moment in the advent of “cashless societies”. And once all money exists only in bank accounts – monitored, or even directly controlled by the government – the authorities will be able to encourage us to spend more when the economy slows, or spend less when it is overheating.

    This may all sound far-fetched, but the idea has been developed in some detail by a Norwegian academic, Trond Andresen*.

    In this futuristic world, all payments are made by contactless card, mobile phone apps or other electronic means, while notes and coins are abolished. Your current account will no longer be held with a bank, but with the government or the central bank. Banks still exist, and still lend money, but they get their funds from the central bank, not from depositors.

    Having everyone’s account at a single, central institution allows the authorities to either encourage or discourage people to spend. To boost spending, the bank imposes a negative interest rate on the money in everyone’s account – in effect, a tax on saving.

    Faced with seeing their money slowly confiscated, people are more likely to spend it on goods and services. When this change in behaviour takes place across the country, the economy gets a significant fillip.

    The recipient of cash responds in the same way, and also spends. Money circulates more quickly – or, as economists say, the “velocity of money” increases.

    What about the opposite situation – when the economy is overheating? The central bank or government will certainly drop any negative interest on credit balances, but it could go further and impose a tax on transactions.

    So whenever you use the money in your account to buy something, you pay a small penalty. That makes people less inclined to spend and more inclined to save, so reducing economic activity.

    Such an approach would be a far more effective way to damp an overheated economy than today’s blunt tool of a rise in the central bank’s official interest rate.

    If this sounds rather fanciful, negative interest rates already exist in Denmark, where the central bank charges depositors 0.75pc a year, and in Switzerland.

    At the moment it’s easy for individuals to avoid seeing their money eroded this way – they can simply hold banknotes, stored either in a safe or under the proverbial mattress.

    But if notes and coins were abolished and the only way to hold money was through a government-controlled bank, there would be no escape.

    Apart from the control over the economy, there would be many other advantages of a cashless society. Such a system is much cheaper to run than one based on banknotes and coins. Forgery is impossible, as are robberies.

    Electronic money is an inclusive and convenient system, giving poor and rural sectors of an economy – where cash machines and bank branches may be few and far between and not all people have accounts – a tool for easy participation in the economy.

    Finally, the “black economy” will be hugely diminished, and tax evasion made all but impossible.

    (End of Article)

    Gold what is happening?

    With the myriad of stories and events that are culminating worldwide its probably no coincidence that gold is trading at the one area we have been saying is its most important trend line at the moment and that is the 2005 uptrend line.

    What is important to understand is this line is the decision point where gold either begins a 5th and final wave down which leads to and towards 850-1050 or whether it makes an attempt to bottom here in a truncated fashion and reverse gold higher in an attempt to end the bear market that began in Aug/Sept of 2011.

    Gold Long term uptrend line price chart

    Gold Long Term price point

    As you can see by the long term chart above, there is a 10 year trend line that needs be watched carefully.  Should this trend line give way, then prices would favor a move toward 1000 as support number two.  This trend line was drawn off the 2005 lows and is an ALTERNATE LINE I’ve been watching.  I’ve a different angle on the medium term black chart you usually see on this report that crosses around the 1100 area.  Because price has bounced off this line for six months, it has become relevant in this current price watch.

    Gold is on the verge of potentially reversing the bearish medium term trend to NEUTRAL.  That is the first step in turning the trend up.  It has to move to NEUTRAL and then if the TREND SUSTAINS it will move to bullish.  

    What must gold first do to display a medium term trend change? 

    It must produce 2 consecutive weekly closes and a monthly close above the moving averages. 

    The moving averages are now at 1206 and 1220. 

    Gold has closed above the averages for the first week now and we must close again above this number in the coming week.  It must then close above 1220 at the end of May.

    In addition to moving averages, gold must close above 1255-1277 on a weekly/monthly level to add some Fibonacci confirmations that gold is turning up on a medium term level.

    In addition, perhaps the most important medium term number to watch is the 1297-1322 area.  Weekly and monthly closes above that level would be suggestive of a move towards 1480-1520 for gold on a medium term level.

    But let’s take it one step at a time.  

    Gold on the short term

    The one other sign that gold might be turning up is that an uptrend channel has formed at the last medium term cycle date (Week of March 23rd).   Price is about ½ way up the channel and is at is most important resistance in this price zone.  Note how price has been held in check here since the middle of February at this Fibonacci resistance and weekly price reversal point.   The key is there are five tests.  It is rare (but not out of the question in this market) that a market can hold a 6th test of resistance. 

     Therefore a break above 1228 favors a move to 1236-1244 or 1255-1264 THIS WEEK.  Those numbers are different than what we have on the chart only because the chart is WEEKLY CLOSING NUMBERS.

    Gold short term price chart since March 2015 low

    Last week’s 1223 close was right in between 1222-1225. Is that enough?  What it tells us is that gold remains uncertain and that we should see a test of 1236-1244 this week and then we will see if gold wants to rally further.  

    Keep in mind that gold’s seasonal trend usually peaks near mid May and moves lower into June/July.  Those are the odds.  Odds are not absolutes, and we should remain cautious just the same.  With short term cycles due to peak this week,  it would not be out of the question then to see gold peak between Monday and Thursday of this week and then turn back down into early June.  Remember, odds are odds, not absolutes.  There are no absolutes in markets.  Look for a probe of 1236-1244 this week and then we’ll see if gold turns down from there or holds another weekly close above 1222-1225.

    Gold on the intermediate term level

    For this chart the view still shows that overall gold is in a downtrend from 2014.  The next target of interest is the December 2014 high at 1239.  Note how it coincides with the Fibonacci retracement and our weekly range mentioned earlier of 1236-1244 for the coming week. 

    The real short term question is this.

    The weekly reversal point is 1220-1225 and with a Friday close in between both numbers at 1223, gold leaves its OPTION OPEN to go test 1236-1244 this week and still close below 1225 by week’s end.   We’ll have to see whether gold just going to clear the stops above 1225 or if its seriously going to begin a medium term rally. If it does, it will be the exact opposite of what usually happens.   

    Gold intermediate term price chart 

    Commodities

    Medium Term trend – Bearish

    Moving averages – 240 – 253

    We have been favoring a seasonal bounce in commodities in the April/May timeframe and price has moved as high as 236 and getting within 4 points of the first moving average.  On the daily chart below the short term moving averages have turned up.   Support comes in at 216-226.   Resistance is at the 240-253 area.   

    On the medium term, two weekly closes and a monthly close above 240-253 would neutralize the commodity downtrend.  

    The trend is up but it’s not a strong trend.  The current target remains 240-260 and then we’ll see.

     In summary, while it may not happen this coming week, odds are that the commodity bounce is not yet complete and that price should move to the moving averages and or the white channel line near 260.

    Commodities weekly price chart

    CYCLES

    The next short term cycle is due May 18th (plus or minus 72 hours). That means we favor a high this week and a pullback to begin that will last until the 1st week in June.  Odds are 75% that the red cycle will take effect.   That means that odds are high gold peaks between May 18th – 21st of this week and a pullback will take us into the 1st week of June. The 1236-1244 area or the 1255-1264 area is the odds favored price peak this week.

     Gold Cycles

    Gold Medium Term

    Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361

    Long term Moving averages 1365 – 1443

    Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1206 – 1220

    On the Upside:

    Look just above at the medium term moving averages as they are down to 1206-1220. Two weekly and a monthly close above this area is needed for gold to move to NEUTRAL on the medium term.  Last week completed the 1st week.

    On the downside:

    This is what we have been listing every week:

    If there is one PLACE to look for the BULL/BEAR line it’s this 1172-1192 area.

    Last week’s low was 1178, so gold continues to HOLD THE KEY AREA NEEDED.  As long as it does that, then an upside move can still take place.  

    We stated during the rally from November to January that the bull market in gold can ONLY resume if we take out the dual triple green channel lines and make it support. Price reached the middle line at the triple green trend line and then turned back down and has not looked back since. And that’s really the bottom line. In order for the gold market to resume its bullish form gold absolutely must make the triple green channel line a price support point and not resistance.  

    In Addition the blue moving average has to cross above the red in order to confirm the trend change. Until that time, the downtrend remains intact on the medium term.  

    One final note, the 2014 closing price of 1182 makes 1172-1192 the YEARLY PIVOT. Under 1172 leaves the odds on the downside and above 1192 the upside. If there is one PLACE to look for the BULL/BEAR line it’s this 1172-1192 area.

    The bottom line is gold has to make the triple green trend line support and not resistance. When it does, the medium term trend moves to an upside bias. Until then, be careful, especially when we are below last year’s closing price (1182).  Odds favor that the lower resistance lines will be tested before the bear market ends.

    Gold Weekly Price Chart

    Silver Medium Term Weekly Price Chart

    Long Term Trend ~ bearish 22.69 – 25.34 - it takes a monthly close above 27.00 to neutralize the long term downtrend.

    Medium Term Trend ~ Bearish 16.67 – 17.32

    We’ve highlighted the long term trend line that silver is holding by making it a double green line.  As long as we hold that line, silver has the potential to have formed a long term bottom. 

    The 1850-1900 and the 2133-2200 area is where the greatest concentration of resistance currently resides. On the long term, it will take a monthly close above 2133, before the downtrend is neutralized. Any weekly/Monthly close below 14.75 will favor a resumption of the downtrend.

    As long as we hold support at the 1475-1525 area, the potential for silver to move higher on the medium term still has some merit. The bottom line for medium term silver is that price needs to make the moving averages (16.67-17.32) support, and not resistance for the trend to turn up on a medium term basis.

    On the monthly chart below the other thing we have been saying is to look for silver to take out that DOWNTRENDING GREEN CHANNEL LINE. We said if it did that odds favored a move in silver to either 1850 or most likely to the other channel green channel line on the chart below at the 21.33 area.   It looks like last week has taken out the green line and thus a move to the 1850 (plus or minus 25 cents) looks likely to develop this week and then we will see.

    The higher green parallel line on the chart represents the 2008 price high before the crash. It is this line and price area that Silver MUST re-conquer and make SUPPORT again on a monthly basis in order to turn things around in silver.

    In summary, silver has exceeded the down trending Green channel line and the moving averages.  That favors a move towards 1850 and then we’ll see.  The medium term moving average trend will come out of bearish mode and move to neutral if silver closes the month above 1732.


    Gold weekly price Chart


    Bond Chart Update

    Medium Term – Bullish for lower rates (but getting near Neutral).

    Moving Averages – 21.13 – 21.92

    10 Year T-Notes

    Prices have reached the medium term moving averages as bonds are becoming less and less desirable at these interest rate levels.

    The key line is that green down trend line. As long as we are below that line, the long term interest rate picture is still in a downtrend. In 2015, it will be the 34th year since the downtrend began. Odds favor lower rates are in their final throws lower and a new bear market in bonds is coming. This is the real “bubble” that will bring down the global debt crisis once the bubble bursts and once interest rates turn up, odds favor the bear market in gold will be complete.

    On the shorter term timeframes the current uptrend line where price resides is the last meaningful support until the 2012 and 2013 lows. With negative rates now appearing in a few countries on the 10 year, it is not out of the question for rates to move lower for a bit longer.  The Fed is so trapped in that it wants to raise rates, but they are afraid what it will do to the US dollar and send it higher.  On the other hand, if they don’t raise rates before the next recession, (which looks like is about to develop) the Fed will be without its main ammunition (lowering rates) in order to spur growth.  

    The bottom line is that if the Feds raise rates, a higher dollar ensues and if they don’t, they will be powerless to do anything about the upcoming recession.  And odds favor, the bottom ls going to implode at some point-----probably during the 2nd half of this year.

    10 Year T-Note weekly long term price chart

    US Dollar

    Long Term Trend ~ Bullish 83.56 – 81.50

    Medium Term Trend ~ Bullish 92.00 – 89.42

    The seasonal upside we favored in commodities for April/May is opposite for the US dollar as the correction that began on March 13th is still playing out.   

    Support is 91.50-92.00 at the blue moving average and at the white channel line at 93.00.    That area is also the first target for support for this correction.   The 2nd target area is the red moving average near 89 and the 2nd lower white channel line right around 90.  Thus we have 91.50-93.00 (1st target) and 89-90 as the 2nd target.  As you can see we have reached the USD 1st support area and thus it will be important to watch this weeks activity in USD.  In summary, the correction in the USD is still in play but we suspect that we may see some support forming here or near this price area (91.50-93.00) with a rebound attempt coming.

     US dollar weekly price chart

    Euro

    Medium Term Trend ~ Bearish 115.23 – 119.03

    After being bearish the EURO from the 136 area, we changed our stance the week after price reached the lower long term trend line (March 13th) and since then we have been looking for a bounce back rally to the 116-117 and potentially the 123 level in the Euro.

    So far that is exactly what is playing out.

    Resistance is now 115-117 and 123. We continue to feel a Euro bounce is underway from the par level. We have felt an important low may be in place for the 1st half of this year since late March and a bounce into May/July should take place.  But we are well aware that all is not well in Europe and that this forecast is merely for a bounce in the longer term picture.

    The Euro just about reached par and on a longer term perspective, if the Euro loses that trend line on the chart, it could very well be heading towards the 80 level. So while the long term is still down, it would take a monthly close below 98 to signal the next big move towards 80 is underway. With that said, Europe has a number of significant dangerous situations going on. In summary, we favor the Euro will stabilize for the moment. While we favor it, we are aware it could change quickly with a situation like Greece unfolding.  The longer term trends remain bearish but a bounce to that white line and the moving averages we have been favoring should take place.

    Odds favor we are heading for the next trend line resistance (and the blue moving average).  

    Euro weekly price chart 

    HUI GOLD STOCKS INDEX

    Long Term Trend ~ Bearish - Moving Average Trend – 266.41– 317.27

    Medium Term Trend ~ Bearish - Moving Average Trend – 178.49 – 199.68

    Intermediate Term Trend ~ Bullish – Moving Average Trend – 177.84– 177.23

    There is no confirmation that the low is in place at this time and the HUI gold stocks are still in downtrends overall. Certainly price is at the 2008 crash lows and that does allow for a major long term bottom to form. But we need to see this market return to a position of strength and the bottom line is that there has yet to be a HIGHER HIGH registered on this chart since the top. Until the HUI gets above the Gold colored dual downtrend line and the dual green uptrend line, the overall bear market downtrend is still in play.

    However, on an intermediate term basis, we have stated that gold stocks usually get a SPRING RALLY in April/May and that time frame has been holding up the gold stocks.  Indeed, stocks have held their ground while gold is struggling to not break to new lows.  A weekly close above 186 would favor a test of 195-210.

     HUI gold stock index weekly price chart

    STOCKS –USA

    Long Term Trend ~ Bullish since 8/31/2011 @ 122 ~ Moving Averages 178.34 -165.69

    The long term trend remain bullish. The long term trend since 8/31/2011 at 122.

    Medium Term Trend ~ Bullish – Moving Averages 205.00 – 202.90

    Basically unchanged since last week.

    We have discussed in the past that December 2014 was 40 years from the 1974 stock market low and the potential for a major high could develop. The spike high in Futures and SPY at the last resistance line occurred then.  

    Odds favor that we have seen an important high in the stock market but we need to at least trade below the moving averages to get more confirmation (199-201). It’s certainly an important long term resistance line that is just above price, but if we close above that line it is possible that the stock market could go much higher. As impossible as it seems, if we lose the last resistance line, a MELTUP equivalent to 5000 Dow points could occur. There just isn’t any long term resistance lines above the current one where the arrow is drawn. Until we make a new high above that spike on the chart that reached “last resistance” the odds for a pullback in stocks remain in play.   On the downside, we need to take out the moving averages and close below them for two consecutive weeks.

     S&P 500 ETF SPY weekly price chart

    What Next

    Gold is making its attempt to move out of the trading range of 1175-1225 that has ruled since February.  Its certainly picking an unusual time as gold prices often peak in mid May and pullback into the June/July area.

    The key is going to be whether gold can conquer the next set of resistance which this week is the 1234-1244 area.

    On the downside

    What we have to be on guard for is that gold takes out 1225 during the week and the stops above it but then fails to take out 1234-1244 and then closes below 1222-1225 by Friday.  That would keep the medium term trend in a position to remain in a bear trend.

    On the upside

    A weekly close above 1244 will favor a move towards 1264-1272 and will set up the potential for gold to close the month of May above 1244. Then we’ll see.

     

    Bottom Line

    This is what we have been writing;

    Two weekly closes above 1225 and a monthly close above there would neutralize the medium term downtrend.

    Was the 1223 close last week close enough to 1225?  We’re not exactly sure yet but it does seem that gold is at least attempting to try a breakout.

    Breakout of Fakeout?

    It’s a good question because all we have seen in the past 4 years is a fake out.  The gold bear market is due to end this year.  But we are still not convinced that is should end now and at these price levels. 

    First the short term

    If we fail to close above 1236-1244 and close this week below 1222 then a fake out will be the preferred outcome and gold will pullback into the 1st week of June.

    Short term gold cycles are due to peak between the 18th and 21st of the month.  Any NEW CLOSING HIGH IN GOLD AFTER THURSDAY of this week will favor HIGHER PRICES to the first week in June at the 1272-1297 area.

    The DECEMBER HIGH IS 1239 in gold.  As long as we are below 1236-1244 then this can still be a setup for a weekly high this week and a pullback to June.

    The medium term

    We need another close above 1225 and a monthly close above that number to put the medium term trend from bearish to neutral.  That is the 1st step required for gold to begin to tell us its trend MAY be changing. 

    Look at the weekly chart and note that the dual gold downtrend line is a resistance point and that the TRIPLE GREEN CHANNEL LINES need to be OVERCOME in order for gold to have potentially resumed its bull market uptrend.

    The bottom line is that the overall gold trend remains down.  However, as long as gold remains above 1172-1182 on a weekly closing basis, the potential for gold to stage a rally can develop.   Since it has done that, and now is attempting to break above 1225, it seems a key week for gold.

    Look for 1234-1244 or 1255-1264 as the two most likely high points for this week.  If we end the week below 1220, it will be a short tem bearish signal for gold that we should expect lower into the 1st week of June.

    A close above 1236-1244 on Friday will favor higher into the 1st week of June.


  • 14 May 2015 8:48 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Trend

    Long Term ~ Bearish - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.

    Medium Term ~ Bearish   Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.

    Intermediate Term ~ Neutral – trading range 1170-1225.

    Short Term ~Bullish – Price remains in trade range 1175-1225 and waiting for breakout or breakdown.

    Initial Resistance 1220-1225 2nd tier 1231-1235

    Support 1200-1197 2nd tier 1188-1194

    Varoufakis Has Futuristic Greek Debt Plan That "Fills Mario Draghi's Soul With Fear"

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/14/2015

    Germany throws its support behind a Greek referendum on euro membership while Putin invites Athens to join BRICS Bank. Meanwhile, Yanis Varoufakis has a plan for resolving Greece's debt problem — and he imagines the ECB chief is terrified of it. 

    SocGen Asks If "$60 Billion Of Money Printing Monthly Can't Get The Euro Down Then What's Next?"

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/14/2015 


    "Former BoE governor King yesterday made a timely intervention, warning that central banks risk tipping the world into a currency war. We're there already, of course, but if $60bn per month of money printing by the ECB can't get the euro down (because of the USD), then what's next? The RBA has cut rates twice this year, and AUD/USD trades back over 0.8100. Is FX intervention next?"


    Chinese Iron Ore Prices Plunge After CISA Warns Of Persistent Overcapacity

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/14/2015


    Having rebounded along with practically every other risk-asset class in the world over the last month or so, Chinese Iron Ore futures are collapsing tonight. Despite the promise of Chinese LTROs expanding credit (just like they didn't in Europe), iron ore prices are down around 4% - the biggest drop in over 2 years - to as low as CNY419 (or around $62) as China Iron & Steel Association warns that overcapacity in the seaborne iron ore market will persist through to at least 2019 as the world’s largest suppliers expand production further.


    What Peter Schiff Said To Ben Bernanke

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/13/2015


    "You said you weren’t monetizing the debt when you talked to Congress. You said the Fed was going to sell the bonds, but none of them have been sold. They’ve all been rolled over. So how are you claiming victory when you haven’t exited? You haven’t raised rates, you haven’t shrunk the balance sheet. You were wrong in the past. You didn’t see the financial crisis coming. You told us there was no housing bubble. You said subprime was contained. So you were certainly wrong then. So how do you know you’re not wrong now? Is there anything that might change your opinion and get you to rethink and maybe admit that your outlook is wrong?" 


    "We The People" Need To Circle The Wagons: The Government Is On The Warpath

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/13/2015


    Have you ever wondered why the Constitution begins with those three words “we the people”? It was intended to be a powerful reminder that everything flows from the citizenry. We the people are the center of the government and the source of its power. That “we” is crucial because it reminds us that there is power and safety in numbers, provided we stand united. We can accomplish nothing alone. Unfortunately, we have been ousted from that protected circle, by the courts, the politicians, and the corporations - replacing us with yes-men, shills who dance to the tune of an elite ruling class. To put it a little more bluntly, stop thinking like mindless government robots and start acting like a powerhouse of citizens vested with the power to say “enough is enough.”


    It's Official: The Bank of Japan Has Broken The Japanese Stock Market

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/13/2015


    Monetizing the entirety of gross government bond issuance and amassing an equity portfolio worth just shy of $100 billion on the way to cornering the entire ETF market may come across as insanely irresponsible even in a world that is now defined by insanely irresponsible central banks, but Haruhiko Kuroda does not care because when it comes to QE and the financing of governments via central bank-assisted ponzi schemes, no one does it like the BoJ.


    China Goes "Unconventional" In Effort To Tackle Trillions In Debt, Rescue Economy

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/13/2015


    China has officially entered the realm of "unconventional" monetary policy, joining the Fed, the ECB, the BoJ, and a whole host of other global central banks in an attempt to bring the supposedly all-mighty printing press and the unlimited balance sheet that goes with it to bear on subpar economic growth. We suspect the results will be characteristically underwhelming (at least in terms of lowering real interest rates, although in terms of boosting risk assets, the results may be outstanding) meaning it's likely only a matter of time before LTRO becomes QE in China just as it did in Europe.


    Gold Short term

    Price broke out above 1205 yesterday and has rallied to weekly resistance 1219-1225.  Once again the breakout higher was all accomplished in a couple of hours and the 40 dollar move to weekly resistance all complete in two days.  

    This is the same type of activity that has been happening in gold that happens in other markets and the sad fact of the situation is that the forces that now control the markets are run by computers and software programs headed up by the big banks and other well connected entities.

    Look for 1222-1226 to provide resistance today and weekly resistance is now 1235-1244.


       

      

    CYCLES

    The next short term cycle is due May 18th (plus or minus 72 hours).  The cycle is playing out and gold should move higher to next week.  Resistance will be 1220-1225 and 1240.  

         

    HUI

    Intermediate Term – BULLISH  

    Moving averages – 178.22 -177.87

    Look for a move to the yellow trend line above 190 as the odds preferred direction on the short term.

     

    NUGT

    Intermediate Trend –Bullish

    Moving Averages – 12.10 – 11.99

    We got our test of 1350 and odds favor a move to 16-17 next. 

     

    Gold Medium Term

    Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361

    Long term Moving averages 1401 – 1481

    Medium Term Trend ~Bearish 1206 – 1223


    The medium term trend remains down and takes a weekly close above 1225-1255 in order to move the reading to neutral. Until that time, we can’t eliminate the downtrend.

    The yearly pivot is 1172-1182. Above 1182 gives the bulls a slight edge. But it goes right back to the bears on closes below 1172. Keep that in mind.  THAT’s THE YEARLY OPENING RANGES in price and it is the point where gold is either HIGHER or LOWER on the year.

    Seasonal factors are positive for gold in May but they only perform when we are in a bull trend reaction.

    We need two weekly closes above 1225 to begin to reverse the downtrend on the medium term.

    The moving averages on the chart is resistance at 1210-1230. The triple green channel line is the Bull/bear line. Price must recover and make that triple line support and not resistance in order to turn the trend up.  Until then, odds favor price should reach the lower trend lines on the chart.  The next one is near the 1080-1100 area.

      


    GOLD ETF GLD

    Moving Average Trend ~ 114.44– 114.50 – NEUTRAL

    Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase.  This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20/13

    GLD (like gold) is a trading nightmare at the moment of sideways erratic movement.  Until things give trending indication, its best to be patient.  Resistance is 119-120 and support at 112-113, and that’s the range we keep trading in.

     


    GDX

    Intermediate term Trend  20.07 – 19.98 ~ Bullish

    GDX intermediate term remains bullish but it is not an overwhelming price pattern.

    Resistance is at 21.50 – 23.00.  Any close below the moving averages takes GDX out of short term bull mode.  

    GDX is stuck in a long trading range between 17 and 23.

     


    What next?

    Weekly resistance is 1220-1225 and then the 1240 area.  One of those two area’s should be this weeks high.  

    Bottom Line

    It looks like higher prices to next week and then another pullback should begin


  • 13 May 2015 9:08 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Gold Daily Report ~ May 13 2015

    Trend

    Long Term ~ Bearish   - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.

    Medium Term ~ Bearish   – Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.

    Intermediate Term ~ Neutral   – trading range 1170-1225.

    Short Term ~ Neutral   – Price remains in trade range 1175-1225 and waiting for breakout or breakdown.


    Initial Resistance 1205-1212 2nd tier 1219-1225

    Support 1188-1192 2nd tier 1178-1182


    Gold Short term

    Price is trying to hold the 1172-1182 area.  This is the yearly opening range (1172-1182) we've discussed as a most important pivot for this year and price continues to converge at that price point.  

    With the trading range mess it’s going to take a close above 1225 on a weekly basis before we can say the trend is up.  The Fibonacci 38% retrace at 1205 is the spot to watch on Wednesday.  Support lies at the lower black dotted uptrend lines (1178-1182).

    With the crazy trading range we have had, anything is possible on the short term and we just keep going back and forth.  

    ODDS FAVOR THAT GOLD ESTABLISHES THE NEXT TREND into mid month once it closes either above 1205 or below the short term channel lines on the chart.   

     

     

    CYCLES

    The next short term cycle is due May 18th (plus or minus 72 hours).  If the cycle plays out then gold should move higher to mid-May.  But be careful, this messy chop can continue and price could just as soon break down.  It’s best to wait until price comes out of this range before putting our faith back in the short term cycle.  

    In order for the upside to have a chance to take hold we need a close above 1197-1205. If we do get the up cycle into 18th of the month, then resistance will be 1220-1225 and 1240.  A close below the 1168 low of 2 weeks ago would cast doubt on upside potential for this cycle and would be suggestive that we move lower into mid-month.

        

    HUI

    Intermediate Term – NEUTRAL  

    Moving averages – 177.87 -176.82


    The shorter term trend is NEUTRAL.  

    We discussed a close below 168 would have to favor lower into mid May and probably that the spring seasonal is over.  Note how the low last week was 168.   That’s the short term line in the sand. Resistance now is the 176-178 area (moving averages) and then the gold trend line at 192. 

    Unless HUI closes back above the yellow trend line on the chart below, the potential of forming a bearish head and shoulder pattern on the chart is something we have to keep in mind.  The Friday action brought price back to the moving averages and we must close above them in order to favor further upside to the yellow line.  The other support besides the mentioned 168 area is the lower white line in the 158-162 area.   Overall the trend at the moment is neutral and price is trapped in a trade range with the 150-160 area on the lower end and 192-212 on the upside.  Gold stocks usually get one more bout of weakness into the end of June or July.   Not every year, but certainly most often.

    The one thing we don’t like is the pattern since March.  It’s choppy and overlapping and that means odds heavily favor this is a counter trend move or bounce and that the main trend at the moment still remains down.  Choppy and overlapping trends can continue higher in the grinding fashion we’ve seen over the past 6 weeks.  The problem with them is that they tend to end abruptly and without warning and then turn down.  

    On the shorter term, prices can still move higher this week.

      

    NUGT

    Intermediate Trend –Neutral

    Moving Averages – 11.98 – 11.87


    After testing the channel line near 10 as forecasted last week, price has come back to the moving averages and is now above them.  Look for a test of 1350-1400 next and then we’ll see.

    A close below white trend line puts the short term potential lower towards 8.80.

      

    Gold Medium Term

    Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361

    Long term Moving averages 1401 – 1481

    Medium Term Trend ~Bearish 1206 – 1223


    The medium term trend remains down and takes a weekly close above 1225-1255 in order to move the reading to neutral. Until that time, we can’t eliminate the downtrend.

    The yearly pivot is 1172-1182. Above 1182 gives the bulls a slight edge. But it goes right back to the bears on closes below 1172. Keep that in mind.  THAT’s THE YEARLY OPENING RANGES in price and it is the point where gold is either HIGHER or LOWER on the year.

    Seasonal factors are positive for gold in May but they only perform when we are in a bull trend reaction.

    We need two weekly closes above 1225 to begin to reverse the downtrend on the medium term.

    The moving averages on the chart is resistance at 1210-1230. The triple green channel line is the Bull/bear line. Price must recover and make that triple line support and not resistance in order to turn the trend up.  Until then, odds favor price should reach the lower trend lines on the chart.  The next one is near the 1080-1100 area.

      

    GOLD ETF GLD

    Moving Average Trend ~ 114.49– 114.68 – NEUTRAL

    Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase.  This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20/13

    GLD (like gold) is a trading nightmare at the moment of sideways erratic movement.  Until things give trending indication, its best to be patient.  Resistance is 119-120 and support at 112-113, and that’s the range we keep trading in.

      

    GDX

    Intermediate term Trend 19.97 – 19.88 ~ Bullish

    GDX intermediate term remains bullish but it is not an overwhelming price pattern.

    Resistance is at 21.50 – 23.00.  Any close below the moving averages takes GDX out of short term bull mode.  

    GDX is stuck in a long trading range between 17 and 23.

     


    What next?

     Watch for 1205 as resistance today.  Weekly resistance is the 1212-1215 and 1220-1225 price points. 

    On the downside a close below the lower trend line would not be good but there is some support at 1168-1172.  If that gives a close below 1163 favors 1142-1150 and potentially more.

    The next short term cycle is underway but price has not made its decision as to the direction into the 18th of this month.  It should be a higher cycle but recall on the weekly report that chart that shows the 2005 trend line.  The decision as to whether price holds or not will decide on the next medium term move in gold.  For six months we have been touching the trend line but we haven’t broken it yet.   If it gives way, it won’t surprise me to see 1000 dollar gold at some point this year.  


    Bottom Line

    As long as we are in the range of 1175-1225, we remain in a chop.  That means we can trade at the upper or lower range in price at a moment’s notice and A SELLOFF CAN ALSO Take place at any time.  


    Watch that 1172-1182 area.  It needs to hold.


  • 11 May 2015 10:09 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Gold Daily Report ~ May 11 2015

    Trend

    Long Term ~ Bearish   - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.

    Medium Term ~ Bearish   – Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.

    Intermediate Term ~ Neutral   – trading range 1170-1225.

    Short Term ~ Neutral   – Price remains in trade range 1175-1225 and waiting for breakout or breakdown.

    Initial Resistance 1195-1205 2nd tier 1209-1212

    Support 1172-1182 2nd tier 1158-1163

    The last update listed resistance at 1195-1205 and the high was 1193.  Support was listed 1172-1182 and the low was 1178.

    Gold Short term

    Price is trying to hold the 1172-1182 area.  This is the yearly opening range (1172-1182) we've discussed as a most important pivot for this year and price continues to converge at that price point.  

    With the trading range mess it’s going to take a close above 1225 on a weekly basis before we can say the trend is up.  The moving average at 1194-1196 is a closing price resistance, but the black dotted resistance line at 1195 and the Fibonacci 38% retrace at 1205 is the spot to watch on Monday if prices begin a very short term upside in price.  Support lies at the lower black dotted uptrend lines (1172-1182) and then 1158-1163 and 1142-1152.  

    With the crazy trading range we have had, anything is possible on the short term and we just keep going back and forth.  

    ODDS FAVOR THAT GOLD ESTABLISHES THE NEXT TREND into mid month once it breaks either above or below the short term channel lines on the chart.   


     

    CYCLES

    The next short term cycle is due May 18th (plus or minus 72 hours).  If the cycle plays out then gold should move higher to mid-May.  But be careful, this messy chop can continue and price could just as soon break down.  It’s best to wait until price comes out of this range before putting our faith back in the short term cycle.  

    In order for the upside to have a chance to take hold we need a close above 1197-1205. If we do get the up cycle into 18th of the month, then resistance will be 1220-1225 and 1240.  A close below the 1168 low of 2 weeks ago would cast doubt on upside potential for this cycle and would be suggestive that we move lower into mid-month.

       

    HUI

    Intermediate Term – NEUTRAL  

    Moving averages – 177.87 -176.82

    The shorter term trend is NEUTRAL.  

    We discussed a close below 168 would have to favor lower into mid May and probably that the spring seasonal is over.  Note how the low last week was 168.   That’s the short term line in the sand. Resistance now is the 176-178 area (moving averages) and then the gold trend line at 192. 

    Unless HUI closes back above the yellow trend line on the chart below, the potential of forming a bearish head and shoulder pattern on the chart is something we have to keep in mind.  The Friday action brought price back to the moving averages and we must close above them in order to favor further upside to the yellow line.  The other support besides the mentioned 168 area is the lower white line in the 158-162 area.   Overall the trend at the moment is neutral and price is trapped in a trade range with the 150-160 area on the lower end and 192-212 on the upside.  Gold stocks usually get one more bout of weakness into the end of June or July.   Not every year, but certainly most often.

    The one thing we don’t like is the pattern since March.  It’s choppy and overlapping and that means odds heavily favor this is a counter trend move or bounce and that the main trend at the moment still remains down.  Choppy and overlapping trends can continue higher in the grinding fashion we’ve seen over the past 6 weeks.  The problem with them is that they tend to end abruptly and without warning and then turn down.

    For now, the MOVING AVERAGES are the place to watch Monday.  As long as we remain below them, price can still turn down into mid month.

     

    NUGT

    Intermediate Trend –Neutral

    Moving Averages – 11.98 – 11.87

    After testing the channel line near 10 as forecasted last week, price has come back to the moving averages and that is the first area that we must close above (1225) in order to have a chance at closing above 14.  That is the number which we must close above in order to favor higher towards 16-17.  

    A close below white trend line puts the short term potential lower towards 8.80.

     

    Gold Medium Term

    Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361

    Long term Moving averages 1401 – 1481

    Medium Term Trend ~Bearish 1206 – 1223

    The medium term trend remains down and takes a weekly close above 1225-1255 in order to move the reading to neutral. Until that time, we can’t eliminate the downtrend.

    The yearly pivot is 1172-1182. Above 1182 gives the bulls a slight edge. But it goes right back to the bears on closes below 1172. Keep that in mind.  THAT’s THE YEARLY OPENING RANGES in price and it is the point where gold is either HIGHER or LOWER on the year.

    Seasonal factors are positive for gold in May but they only perform when we are in a bull trend reaction.

    We need two weekly closes above 1225 to begin to reverse the downtrend on the medium term.

    The moving averages on the chart is resistance at 1210-1230. The triple green channel line is the Bull/bear line. Price must recover and make that triple line support and not resistance in order to turn the trend up.  Until then, odds favor price should reach the lower trend lines on the chart.  The next one is near the 1080-1100 area.

     

    GOLD ETF GLD

    Moving Average Trend ~ 114.49– 114.68 – NEUTRAL

    Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase.  This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20/13

    GLD (like gold) is a trading nightmare at the moment of sideways erratic movement.  Until things give trending indication, its best to be patient.  Resistance is 119-120 and support at 112-113, and that’s the range we keep trading in.

     

    GDX

    Intermediate term Trend 19.97 – 19.88 ~ Bullish

    GDX intermediate term remains bullish but it is not an overwhelming price pattern.

    Resistance is at 21.50 – 23.00.  Any close below the moving averages takes GDX out of short term bull mode.  

    GDX is stuck in a long trading range between 17 and 23.

     

    What next?

    We begin the week with price on the short term chart in the middle of the trend lines.  Watch for direction above or below them and then watch from 1197-1205 as resistance today.  Weekly resistance is the 1212-1215 and 1220-1225 price points. 

    On the downside a close below the lower trend line would not be good but there is some support at 1168-1172.  If that gives a close below 1163 favors 1142-1150 and potentially more.

    The next short term cycle is underway but price has not made its decision as to the direction into the 18th of this month.  It should be a higher cycle but recall on the weekly report that chart that shows the 2005 trend line.  The decision as to whether price holds or not will decide on the next medium term move in gold.  For six months we have been touching the trend line but we haven’t broken it yet.   If it gives way, it won’t surprise me to see 1000 dollar gold at some point this year.  


    Bottom Line

    As long as we are in the range of 1175-1225, we remain in a chop.  That means we can trade at the upper or lower range in price at a moment’s notice and A SELLOFF CAN ALSO Take place at any time.  


    Watch that 1172-1182 area.  It needs to hold.


  • 07 May 2015 3:17 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ May 7 2015


    Our discussions over the past two years = Liquidity Crisis coming, Debt Default coming, Currency crisis coming, global economic collapse coming………..
    Perhaps we should change the word coming to “arriving” or perhaps “here".”


    First the liquidity Crisis……………….

    Saved By The Broken Euronext: Manic-Selling Becomes Panic-Buying In Global Bond, Stock Markets 
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2015 


    Overnight "manic-selling" in global bond markets (and turmoil in stock markets) has been met - suddenly - this morning by "panic-buying" as mysteriously liquid buyers lift stocks back into the green and send bond yields plunging (right after Euronext breaks)... As one trader noted, the market is in a mode of “high volatility with no dealer liquidity and easy excuses."


    Did The World's Central Banks Hit The Panic Button This Morning?
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2015 

    If there is one thing more worrisome for the world's central planners than a stock sell-off, it is a bond rout 'proving' that they have lost control. The overnight carnage across global bond markets appears to have triggered someone (or someone’s) to step in - in dramatic size - to rescue bonds and save the world once again.

    On to the Debt Default situation ……………..


    Greek FinMin Says "Grexit Not An Issue;" Germans Not Hopeful On Deal For "Bottomless Pit"
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2015 


    Greek FinMin Varoufakis and German FinMin Schaeuble are cross-talking again this morning:

    *GREECE'S VAROUFAKIS SAYS 'GREXIT' IS 'NOT AN ISSUE' (well the market & ECB thinks it is)

    *SCHAEUBLE SAYS EXPECTATIONS FOR EUROGROUP MEETING NOT VERY HIGH (oh ok)

    As next week's meeting and deadlines loom, hope is running high today in Greece... even though Schaeuble warns "don't expect spectacular Eurogroup results."And lastly today…………the global economic collapse update.

    And now the global economic collapse..........


    US Macro Data Has Never Collapsed This Fast
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2015

    Since the end of QE3 (and the end of the government's fiscal year), US macroeconomic data has disappointed and weakened on an unprecedented scale. With April data not showing the post-weather bounce that every sell-side economist is hoping for, the absolute level of macro weakness was only marginally weaker in the past in the aftermath of the Lehman crisis.

    Despite Biggest Spike In Job Cuts Since 2011, Jobless Claims Hover At 15-Year Lows 
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2015 

    Initial jobless claims rose very modestly from last week's 15-year low levels and hovers at a stunning 262k - indicating everything is as awesome as it can possibly be. Which is odd... because as Challenger-Gray notes, April saw the biggest rise in job cuts since 2011 (and the worst YoY increase for April in at least a decade). Job cuts were concentrated in the energy sector on an unprecedented scale.


    Now before you go thinking that Capitalism is collapsing……………..think again.   ITS SOCIALISM THAT HAS BEEN COLLAPSING.  And that is leading to to fascism or even totalitarianism. 



    Deutsche Bank's Head Of Global Credit Strategy Explains Why "This Is Not Capitalism"
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2015 

    "... part of the problem today is that over the last 15-20 years, capitalism has been propped up every time it’s about to go through one of the cyclical creative destruction phases. Compounded up that's left us with a big mess to clear up across the globe and a lot of sub optimal resource allocation. So across a lot of the Western World we're left with too much debt, too much inequality, low real wage growth, limited conventional tools to help the economy to de-lever, QE and ZIRP and a political backlash against the mainstream."

    (Our thanks to www.zerohedge.com for the news headlines)



    Gold Chart

    The downtrend channel and the uptrend channel are getting close to meeting on the short term chart.  As you can see price is in the middle and a break either way is about to develop.  There’s a support band of 1172-1182 where the yearly opening price range resides.   Technical Support is the 1158-1163 area and 1168-1175.   Resistance is 1195-1205 and 1209-1212.   As we have discussed on the website all week, odds have favored that gold would meander and probably not setup until the NFP report on Friday.   Odds are for a bad job report.  However,  can we even trust the Government won’t do what it has to in order to “MAKE IT LOOK GOOD?”  While it could be a boost to gold,   it will only be temporary.   A collapsing global economy is not good for gold, at least not yet.   If it were, then gold would not be down for the last 45 months nor would it have lost 700 bucks per ounce.   Gold needs spending, growth, inflation, higher interest rates………..BUT NOT WHAT WE ARE BEING FED.   Its best to wait for this range to shake out. 



    Silver


    It’s the same story for silver.  We await the convergence of the two trend lines with price in the middle.  Key resistance to watch is 1670-1690 and 1725-1750.  Support is 1550-1575.





  • 06 May 2015 3:26 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Charts with support and resistance follows headlines;

    Lockhart "September Rate Hike" Comments Send Stocks To 5-Week Lows
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2015

    While many hoped that Lockhart would play good cop to Yellen's bad cop, he didn't:

    *LOCKHART SAYS MARKET'S VIEW FOR SEPTEMBER HIKE 'REASONABLE'

    Which has sent stocks reeling back to the levels pre-payrolls in April.

    Capital Controls Hit Greek Banks: FX Trading Curbed As Credit Lines Cut
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2015 

    While officials have begun their own versions of capital controls by raiding pension funds, confiscating local government cash, and surcharges on withdrawals (and transfer ceilings); it appears the market participants themselves have now imposed their own share of capital controls. As Bloomberg reports, international securities firms are curtailing trading with major Greek banks - pulling credit lines and restricting FX trading limits - as fear of Grexit looms.

    Fed Agrees To Name The FOMC Leaker (As Long As Congress Keeps It Secret)
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2015

    Having initially missed its deadline to provide a response to Congress with regard the 2012 leak of FOMC minutes to an external newsletter writer, The Fed reluctantly admitted that none other than Janet Yellen had met with them. Today, however, as The Wall Street Journal reports, The (unaudited) Fed has agreed to furnish a congressional panel with the names of its staffers who had contact with Medley Global Advisors in the months before the leak, “with the understanding that the names will be kept confidential." So we'll happily tell you who leaked it... as long as you don't tell the public. Audit The Fed!!!

    Greek Deal On Monday "Not Possible" MNI Reports Despite Troika Attempt To Reconcile Differences
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2015 

    With the crucial May 12th €774mm Greek IMF payment looming (and thus even more critical May 11th deadline for the Eurogroup's decision to release around €7bn in additional funds to Greece), the much-discussed 'splintering' of the Troika (The Institutions as the Greeks would prefer we describe them) appears to be gradually un-splintering. Today's statement from the EU talks that the members of the Troika "share the same objective" may reassure some after the 'limbo' of serious disagreements between the European Commission and The IMF. However, with various 'red lines' remaining unaddressed, EU sources say a deal on Monday is not possible.

    Yellen Kills The Music, Says "Equity Valuations Are Quite High", Sends Dow Red For 2015
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2015
     
    Back in July 2007 Citi's then CEO Chuck Prince, a little over a year before his bank received a gargantuan government bailout said "as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance." 

    Moments ago Janet Yellen just killed the music: YELLEN SAYS EQUITY MARKET VALUATIONS QUITE HIGH

    Or, paraphrased, the $4.5 trillion balance sheet the US created, and the $22 trillion in assets purchased by global central banks to keep the dream alive, has lead to "quite high" stock prices.

    Greece Floats Surcharge on Withdrawals As ECB Considers Cuts To Liquidity Lifeline
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2015
     
    Greece is set to introduce a surcharge on withdrawals and financial transactions in an effort to raise cash amid fractious negotiations with creditors. Meanwhile, the ECB is considering measures that will tighten the screws on the country's cash-strapped banking sector.

    US Productivity Suffers First Consecutive Quarterly Plunge Since 1993
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2015
     
    Well this cannot be good. US output per hour (for the non-farm businesses) - or non-Farm productivity - plunged 1.9% in Q1. This follows a 2.1% slump in Q4 2014 and is the first consecutive quarterly plunge since 1993. This was driven by a 0.2% decline in output as hours worked increased 1.7% with manufacturing productivity suffering a 1.1% drop in Q1 (driven by a 1.2% decline in output).

    ADP Employment Tumbles To 15 Month Lows As Manufacturing Jobs Plunge
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2015
     
    Following March's dismal drop in the ADP Employment report (the biggest miss in 4 years) and missing for 3 straight months, April printed a very weak 169k (against notably lowere expectations of a 200k rise). Even worse, February and March was revised even lower. This is lower than the lowest economist estimate. Large companies were particularly weak with smaller businesses adding the bulk of the meager jobs print. The esteemed Mark Zandi blames this on "the fallout from the collapse of oil prices and the surging value of the dollar."

    Gold Chart
    Gold remains trapped in a trading range of 1175-1225 and there is still no change to the choppy and overlapping sideways action we’ve seen.   Resistance is the 1196-1198 area and 1202-1212.  The 1202-1205 area and 1209-1212 is strongest resistance.   Support is the 1178-1185 area and then 1163-1172.   Until we get out of this chop area,  its best to remain flexible to short term trend and not be committed.  The NFP report on Friday should be the time the control boyz gang up and move gold for this week.   There is no way to gauge which side they will move it when we are in such a chop condition.   
     
    Gold price chart
    Gold Cycles

    When price is this choppy the cycles are much less reliable.   Still the best fit is a blue cycle low based on the Friday price low at 1168.   The window closes today and thus the next short term cycle is underway in full galla on Thursday.   Right now it seems we have a low in place but as we said,  the cycles have are also skewed due to this choppy April trade range.  This would suggest higher to mid May but ANY CLOSE BELOW 1163 and we should favor lower prices in this new short term cycle.   Key resistance remains 1220-1225 and event the 200 day average resides there now.

     Gold Cycles

    Silver
    Silver has strongest resistance at 1675-1705 and then 1735-1750.   Support is the 1580-1609 area and 1550-1580.    The channel up and downtrend lines are getting closer and closer with price in the middle.  As long as we are inside those lines, the trend remains neutral.   Odds favor the sideways action nears its end.  

    Silver price chart


  • 04 May 2015 2:47 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Launch www.GoldTrends.net 

    INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ May 4 2015



    Goldtrends has been discussing the shrinking Liquidity that is about to hit the markets for a while now and finally it is being reported by the main stream media.  It’s the same for the “war on cash” that is coming which will only conclude once all cash is cancelled and we go to plastic for everyone.   In this manner the banksters and Fed will avoid the coming bank runs when the debt defaults begin.

    “Nor any Drop to Drink, “ Citi Maps the Liquidity Paradox
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2015

    "From the BIS to BlackRock, and Jamie Dimon to Jose Vinals, everyone seems to be talking about market liquidity," Citi's Matt King writes, before taking an in-depth look at just how broken the 'markets' truly are. To summarize: no depth in the Treasury market, a duration mismatched powder keg in "long-term" mutual funds thanks to the fact that ZIRP has destroyed money market yields causing investors to find a new 'cash substitute,' and a magically shrinking repo market in the wake of new regulations ironically meant to promote stability.

    The War On Cash: Australia Leads The New Age Of Economic Totalitarianism
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2015

    The new age of Economic Totalitarianism is upon us all. As we warned previously, Australia will be the first to introduce a compulsory tax on savings. This is the ultimate Marxist state for now anyone with spare cash is the enemy of the Conservative Tony Abbott government. The introduction of this tax on money in Australia led by Tony Abbott is the trial balloon for the global economy.

    Bill Gross: "This Is All Ending"
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2015 

    “When does our credit based financial system sputter / break down? When investable assets pose too much risk for too little return. Not immediately, but at the margin, credit and stocks begin to be exchanged for figurative and sometimes literal money in a mattress.” We are approaching that point now as bond yields, credit spreads and stock prices have brought financial wealth forward to the point of exhaustion. A rational investor must indeed have a sense of an ending, not another Lehman crash, but a crushof perpetual bull market enthusiasm.

    Has The ECB Run Out Of Willing Bonds Sellers On The Long End?
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2015

    While the ECB is representing that it has no limitations on total monthly volume purchases, it is suddenly finding itself forced to buy increasingly more bonds on the short end. Which brings up the question: is this due to the specific shift in the purchasing strategy of the ECB, or has the ECB simply run out of bond sellers on the long end and as a result is forced to buy ever shorter-maturity paper?

    (Our thanks to www.zerohedge.com for the above headlines)

    Gold Short term

    In what has been perhaps the choppiest trend we’ve seen in any month, April came to an end on Thursday night.   Since the Friday low (May 1st) at 1168, prices have bounced back to the 1190 area.  The key remains the 1172-1192 yearly pivot price range with 1182 as the 2014 close.   As long as we don’t close below 1163-1172 the potential to rally back to 1222 could once again be developing.   Any close below 1172 will negate the outlook.   Resistance is 1192-1195 and then 1205-1209.    Support is the 1173-1178 area.    In summary, we’ll favor higher as long as we don’t close below 1172.

     Gold Hourly price chart

    Cycles

    The next short term cycle is due now (May 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours) and odds favor we are making a low between last Friday and Wednesday of this week.   From there odds favor we move higher to mid-month.

    Gold Cycles

    Silver

    Silver has not made a new weekly low as gold did last Friday and is providing a divergence that helps the short term favored upside.   Just keep in mind we are very choppy and overlapping and there is nothing to say we can’t keep reversing back and forth.   Resistance is the 16.87-17.05 area and support is 16.09-16.17.   Additional support is 15.50-15.75.   

    Silver Hourly price chart




Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

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