by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Bill Downey, of Gold Trends.net, LLC, is an Independent Investment Analyst with over twenty years of study. YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this WEBSITE AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. Do your own due diligence. No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. The author intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations.

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  • 20 Mar 2017 6:28 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Short term Gold 

    Support for the week is 1217-1225 and 1205-1213 (depending when this week’s pullback takes place). If no pullback, Resistance to beat is 1235-1240. The overall trend remains up until we take out 11955. A close below 1195 and odds favor we are wrong about the uptrend remaining in place into April/May.


    I’ve adjusted the 2017 channel to fit the price parameters. On a higher level overall, anything in between 1195-1237 is neutral zone. Whichever side gold chooses should set the pace into April/May.


    The seasonal chart favors gold bottoming in March and a bounce back into April or May. While this is not the only reason, and this is an average of 20 years (1994-2014), that encompasses both bull and bear times in gold, it is something I do keep an eye on. During bear markets, gold fails to deliver in the 2nd half of the year. Sometimes, even in the 1st part of the year. During Bull markets, the 2nd half of the year is where we get big moves. You can see that the Seasonal does show a bit more lower potential into next week (where we have a medium term cycle). However, seasonal charts do not EMIT PRECISE turns, but on AVERAGE. The bottom line is gold should make a low in March and then attempt a rally into April or May.


    Short Term Continued

    SUMMARY

    Odds still favor the overall trend is higher into next week.

    Cycles

    The last cycle turn was March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours) and the low was within the cycle window.

    The rotation is back to Blue cycle lows and that’s what we want to see because blue cycle lows favor gold in a bullish position. The other thing to be aware of is the medium cycle is due this week - March 20th (plus or minus 2 weeks). The previous 3 medium term cycles had gold making its low (in one case a high) just after the blue cycle. Suffice to say that gold has NOW INVERTED to a blue cycle low and we’re expecting gold to bottom last week and begin a rally attempt. So far so good but because of the medium term cycle, I can’t rule out a pullback either towards 1207-1213 or 1218-1222 this week.


    Cycles continued

    Summary

    Odds favor gold rallies into the next red cycle due March 28th (plus or minus 72 hours).


  • 07 Mar 2017 2:26 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)



    Here is a sample of our trade signals for subscribers.  This one was Posted March 7th 2017.


    Launch GoldTrends.net    


    A Signal Trade update on GoldTrends.Net

    With the NFP (Non Farm Payroll) report on Friday, and then the Fed Interest rate decision on March 15th, there's a lot of pressure on gold being exerted by the beliefs of Wall St and Main St.  

    Gold is in the process of testing the lower 2017 uptrend line which runs from 1206-1211 on the lower line.   Gold is testing the January highs for the year as well.   Thus the 1206-1222 area is important.  It's the first area that could provide support.   The other area of interest would be the 1172-1182 area where the 2013 low resides along with the END OF JANUARY LOW on the chart.   


    Cycles

    The Ideal time to buy still looks to be next week.    More important is the fact that the cycle has inverted from blue cycle highs to red cycle high and we're heading to a blue cycle low.  THIS IS WHAT WE WANT FOR A BULLISH ROTATION.   That's what the odds favor is going to happen.   Just remember there are odds,  but NO absolutes in markets.   Odds are our best chance to find a good trade.  One that has the best chance of making (and not losing) money.   If you trade,  this is all you should be searching for.   A couple good trades per month.  This is where the cycles give us the best odds of catching a turn.   The next turn is March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours).   This is where odds are best for a turn.   Not the absolute,  but the odds.   There are exceptions to this,  but the cycle turns should be considered very important and one (as you can see by the chart) should be reluctant to trade against them.  It's best when the market is in line with them.  


    Here are the current website orders.   The closer we get to March 13th - 15th the more I will adjust accordingly.

    SUMMARY 


    A blue cycle low in gold would be bullish.  That's the odds.  It would favor a rally into April and then we'll see.  The ideal time is March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours).  That means the cycle window opens March 10th.   That's less than 72 hours away.    Just in time for the NFP report.   Just keep in mind the cycle window will be open until the 16th and that means that the FED interest rates decision on March 15th is also in the cycle window.   So this is not going to be an EASY picking.

    The ideal price is going to be either 1182 (Plus or minus ten bucks) and/or 1200 (plus or minus 10 bucks).   It doesn't mean it can't be a lower number,  it just means the odds are the highest at these points.  


    ==================================================
    GOLD CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================
    Buy 1 Gold contract Spot 1183.80

    Buy 1 Gold contract Spot 1173.80

    YTD = Gain $ 59.50
    ==================================================
    SILVER CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================

    Buy 1 silver contract Spot if and when gold hits 1173.80 spot

    YTD = Gain $ 1.95

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

     Follow us on Twitter at @goldtrendsnet (no period)
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Disclaimer
    The analyst intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations. Do your own diligence. This is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any commodity or stock. The analyst is merely listing one of the trades for his own account and what you do with that information is entirely up to you.  The analyst lists his trades as soon as possible but due to his style there are times he has bought or sold a position based on the PATTERNS that have been presented at the moment.  On those occasions, be aware that you will receive information of a buy or sell point that analyst has ALREADY TAKEN FOR HIS OWN ACCOUNT. While that is not the intention, we want to make sure you know that it does happen. We are not brokers---we are traders. We DO provide trade orders we have PLACED as soon as we decide, but due to style there will be times we have already entered or exited and we make you aware of that in each update.


  • 06 Mar 2017 4:09 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)


    Cycles

    The next cycle turn is March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours). The February red cycle was hit right on the head.

    Last week we said if there was no cycle inversion then resistance was the 200 day average at 1263-1272 & the 2011 downtrend line. The high came in at 1263.

    One of the 2 options laid out last week was a cycle inversion could be forming that would transform the rotation to a blue cycle low (BULLISH).

    IF this is playing out it removes a big concern we’ve had for gold and that’s red cycle lows. Real sustained bull markets are when we see blue cycle lows.

    While this would call for another week of pullback in gold, it would be setting up for a blue cycle low. That is the rotation we want to see when gold is in a bullish configuration.


    Cycles continued

    In this scenario, cycles peaked here at the red cycle (Feb 27th – plus or minus 72 hours) and gold is in a pullback into the blue cycle low due March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours). From there the rally resumes higher.


  • 13 Feb 2017 1:39 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)



    Cycles

    Here was the projection from January 27th in cycles for a move to the blue cycle due on Feb 10th.


    What now ?

    The odds favor scenario had us looking for higher gold price and a peak last week (Feb 10th – Plus or minus 72 hours) at the blue cycle.


  • 06 Feb 2017 6:43 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)



    GOLD for the week of Feb 6th  2017

    Initial Resistance (1st tier) 1245-1255 (2nd Tier) 1272-1282

    Initial Support (1st tier) 1207-1219 (2nd Tier) 1190-1197

    Our last update listed resistance (2nd Tier) at 1222-1232 and the high was 1225. Support was listed at 1172-1182 and the low was 1197.

    Gold Short Term (Bullish since 1134) Goes Bearish on close below 1197

    Resistance this week and the odds favored targets are 1245-1255 and 1272-1282.

     Support 1207-1219 & 1192-1197. The Trend is up. Close below 1192-1197 puts short term bearish.   There's minor resistance at the 1235-1238 area at the red line.


    Pivot is the 1218-1222.

     As long as we’re above that, we’re heading for the resistance areas. There’s a minor resistance near 1235-1238 we need to get above (at the red line).  The trend remains up into this week & then we'll see.


  • 12 Jan 2017 1:54 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)



    Gold Report

    Jan 13 2017

    Long Term TREND – bearish– (Moving Averages 1214-1222)

    The correction since July 2016

    As described in previous reports since August, our analysis has favored this current correction that began in July should end in the November 2016 to January 2017 time frame. How that TURN looks on its pattern will give evidence if it’s just going to be a bounce like we saw in the first half of this year. In the last update, our outlook was we favored the turn has been underway since Dec 21st. As long as we remain above 1110-1122, favor the correction from July is complete and a move higher is beginning.

    The 2015 low

    The last Long term window forecast was for “the” low to take place between Dec 2015-March 2016 and December 2015 was the bear market low so far at 1045. Odds still favor it as the low, but until we get above the 2011 downtrend line and the 2014 high of 1388, we can’t eliminate this current correction won’t break that low. We had estimated in November either 1172-1182 or 1072-1122 (weekly closing basis) as the two target price ranges that favor where the price low takes place. So far gold has reached 1122 as a low during December.

    If we bottomed at 1072-1122, then gold is favored to move higher into mid-February/Late March. Then we’ll see what the pattern looks like. If gold closes below 1110-1122 on a monthly basis, odds favor the correction hasn’t ended. For now, our outlook for (Nov 2016-Jan 2017) to favor where the low from last July takes place looks to be in play.

    The current bearish trend reading

    The moving averages are at (1214-1222) If gold closes above 1222 for two consecutive monthly closes the trend will be upgraded to Neutral.

    NOTE: GOLD IS TESTING JUST UNDER 1241-1222 as of this report. We should favor that 1214-1222 is strong MONTHLY RESISTANCE. A January & February close above 1222 upgrades the long term trend from Bearish to NEUTRAL. Note also the December low touched the long term uptrend lines and a good bounce has developed. This also is encouraging that gold could be making a HIGHER LOW than 2015’s. If 1110-1122 holds (the low is 1122) then the upside could get interesting later this year. Watch the moving averages. If we get above them, then the 2011 downtrend line will be the next long term test of significance for gold.


    On the upside (and the moving averages).

    The Blue average (1214) must move back above red average (1222) and price must be above both averages on TWO monthly closes to turn the long term TREND back to bullish. The RED BEAR AVERAGE is only 8 dollars above the BLUE BULLISH AVERAGE. The BLUE average has to get above the RED average and price has to be above both averages on two monthly closes for the LONG TERM trend to turn Bullish. In addition, price has to close back above the 2011 downtrend line (1272-1308) and the 89 month moving average 1337 and the 2013 price high of 1388 for gold to signal that the long term odds have turned and the gold correction from 2011 is over and a new bull market leg going towards 2300-5000 is underway.

    Finally, it still takes two monthly closes above the triple green momentum lines at 1488-1530 to confirm the long term bull market UPTREND OF MOMENTUM has resumed. A yearly close above the long term red line on the weekly/monthly chart above 1600 would favor a move to 1794-1925. A yearly close above 1922 would favor a move to the 2300-2500 area.

    Bottom line – The 2011 downtrend (Bear) channel remains in play. January is the odds current target time for low but it’s possible we saw it in December at 1122. If we close above the moving averages in January (1211-1222) then a test of the 2011 downtrend line should take place this quarter. A monthly close below 1110 cancels the above outlook. Gold needs to close above 1180 in January as well to keep the upside going into Feb/March.


  • 18 Dec 2016 10:38 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Gold Cycles

    We discussed on our website Gold Report last week that the price move to the next cycle turn looked weak and that the potential for a cycle inversion (a low last week on the blue cycle) was a potential. We also said that a close below 1152 would favor a move towards 1122. Last week’s spot low in gold was 1122 !!!

    Our discussion was if gold made a low last week, it was possible that “THE CORRECTION” from July could be over. Gold made a low.

    The chart below shows what the situation looks like. We spent some time this weekend relooking at all of 2016. Blue cycle lows favor a bullish TREND. As you can see, gold rallied into August where it made a blue cycle inversion HIGH. Blue cycle highs favor a bearish TREND.


    Cycles Continued

    Now gold looks to have done another cycle inversion to a BLUE cycle low = Bullish.

    Thus its possible that gold is bottoming and completing the correction that began in July. Just because it’s a blue cycle low doesn’t mean gold can’t go under 1122. But it does mean the odds favor gold is going to stop going down and the end of the correction could be ending. As long as gold going forward continues to make blue cycle lows, the odds will favor higher. The next cycle turn is Dec 29th (plus or minus 72 hours). Odds favor gold should begin a bounce into year end. However, volume is going to be real light as we enter the week before Christmas. That means it is not out of the question for gold to continue lower again into another RED CYCLE low. A close below 1113 spot gold would favor it. THAT’s THE SPOT TO WATCH. If we close below there, odds will favor another drop into the 29th towards 1072-1083.

    If gold sells off again this week look for 1113-1122 as first support and 1072-1083.

    If gold has made a blue cycle low resistance this coming week will be 1144-1152 and 1162-1172 and gold should remain in this bounce into the 29th (plus or minus 72 hours). Then we’ll see if the pattern is bullish looking.

    Summary - We still can’t rule out a final low in January but odds favor gold is going to bounce into month’s end, and then we’ll see.


  • 01 Dec 2016 6:30 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Gold Cycles

    We favored gold to move higher to month end due to cycles. However we stated that any close below 1199 favored a cycle inversion/rotation. And cycles did inverted after the 1199 breach and they have rotated back to Red Cycle lows.

    Our long term experience is that blue cycle lows are bullish for price and red Cycle lows produce bounces, but lower prices overall. In other words, a bear trend. One of the FEW exceptions I’ve ever seen was the May 31st low of this year at 1199. There are odds in markets, but there are no absolutes.

    The chart below shows what the situation looks like. Odds favor gold makes a low between today and Monday from where a two week bounce should take place and then we’ll see. A close below 1152-1162 will favor a move to 1122 first.


    Cycles Continued

    The intermediate and medium term cycles are also looking for a turn point here. Last year’s low was about a month early on the Bradley Siderograph. Odds favor the intermediate term is getting ready to make a low between now and January.


    Sentiment

    Sentiment in gold is reaching an extreme point where a trend change attempt also seems close by.

    While not a MEASURE in itself of Sentiment, the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is a breadth indicator based on the number of stocks on Point & Figure buy signals within an index. This gold indicator is flashing an extreme reading and is yet another indicator to watch. It needs to turn UP in order to add to the potential turn point arriving in gold.


    Intermediate term using ETF GLD

    Gold ETF GLD– Moving Averages 116-118 (Bearish)

    Our last update had the intermediate term in bearish mode and while at the 114 area, we stated any NEW LOW (this week) would lead to a test of the lower support line near the 112 area and gold could shed 50 dollars. That’s about what we’ve gotten in gold.

    As you can see by the chart, GLD has fallen below our latest support line and now needs a close back above it on Friday to not trigger yet another level lower. If gold closes below 1062

    Resistance is now at 116-118 and at the 121-122 area. Support is 112 ON FRIDAY CLOSE BASIS. A close below 110 in GLD and price would trace down to the 104-106.50 where that support line resides.


    Summary – The trend remains bearish (as it was the last update) but a short term low is due in cycles. ANY GOLD CLOSE BELOW 1062 could delay the cycle. What we want to see is a close back above that trend line at 113 that GLD just failed at. If that develops, then a bounce to the next resistance line at 115-116 will be favored for next week. Either way, odds favor it comes down to the NFP report on Friday morning as to whether GLD can hold and close back at the line we’ve highlighted at PIVOT.

    Gold Medium Term– Bullish

    Moving Averages 1287-1287 (NEUTRAL)

    Our last update went from medium term bullish to Neutral and since that trend change at around 1272, gold has tanked. Price remains in NEUTRAL mode but with the red moving average on the verge of crossing above blue on this weeks close means any CLOSE BELOW 1262 GOLD next week means the trend goes back to bearish and will target 1083-1129 as the next support.


    Summary – As we’ve said since July on our website and on Twitter---UNTIL GOLD CONQUERS the 2011 downtrend line, the medium term correction can continue even into year end and the BULL MARKET TURN from 2015 remains UNCONFIRMED. Its reality right now and we need to understand that its stronger evidence than just someone’s opinion.

    Medium term Cycle lows are favored in the November to January period, so we’re entering that time zone. Once this cycle low is in place, 2017 still looks higher for gold. From a medium term perspective, odds favor the LOW for this correction won’t be complete until we reach support lines in the 1083-1129. A Friday close below 1179-1180 (the 2013 low) and the doors to SUB $1000 becomes a potential.



  • 22 Nov 2016 10:23 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Launch GoldTrends.net    


    Gold for the week of Thanksgiving


    Key things for gold this week

    Thanksgiving is always a tricky week in which to trade because we have options expiration and a major USA holiday (Thanksgiving) to deal with.  In other words, the week can be heavily influenced by the control boyz.  

    That doesn't mean that gold always moves lower.  But it does mean the control boyz have a much easier time setting up the market in a manner that could be beneficial to them either immediately or down for the following week.  Volume dries up by Wednesday on the COMEX, and its closed Thursday for Thanksgiving.  

    While Friday is open, the majority of market participants (traders & speculators) are for the most part absent until the following Monday.  

    Since the majority of gold trading takes place in New York, that means volume is low and this is where the control boyz have much opportunity to either spike the market lower (or higher) or test support areas that is important to how they would like the market to set up.  

    There have been Thanksgiving holidays where we've seen 50 to 70 dollar moves and there have been some where the price barely budges.  

    Thus it's a week that should be taken in context and one that is an excellent week to not trade and go on holiday yourself.   I cannot emphasize in words how good it is to take breaks from watching and trading markets and Thanksgiving week gives us that opportunity.  One should take advantage of this and get away from the market for a few days if at all possible.  

    Now you might say,  what ?  Take a few days off and miss a potentially important opportunity?

    If you think that way you may be a lot more "addicted" to the market than you think.  And that can be dangerous.  

    If your a trader, rest assured that the market has always in the past (and will always in the future) give opportunities for trade set ups for those who are patient.  If your an investor, a buyer of physical gold, it shouldn't matter not watching the market for a couple of days.  Take advantage of this week to recharge your batteries as there are not many weeks we have this luxury.   All work and no play---makes Jack a dull boy. 

    For the week

    December gold options expire on Tuesday Nov 22nd.  There are about 7000 put options at the 1200 strike price that expire today (thanks to Evert P. for that info).  Thus we'll find out after today if 1200 is going to hold and just how much MOJO gold has left in it's bullish bag.

    In addition, minutes from November's FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday during light holiday trading due to Thanksgiving. They never miss a beat.

    Today is the last real day of volume due to Thanksgiving holiday in USA.  Unless the control boyz have a raid planned, gold should be quiet and remain in the 1199-1230 area for the week.  If gold takes out 1195, look for a move to 1172-1182.    The chart below shows resistance is most likely in the 1222-1230 area this week and support 1195-1205.  If we look at last weeks action and price pattern, it was choppy and overlapping.  It tried to make the 89 hour moving average support but when it failed, gold plunged.  Now look at this week.  Same choppy and overlapping pattern and at the moment trying to hold the 89 hour moving average.  Its best to remain cautious before we get any bullish notions at the moment. 


    On a monthly basis, the 1222-1226 area is where the moving averages reside.  As long as price is below that level, extreme caution is recommended.   The last day of the month is when the moving averages come into play.  A close below them (BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY BELOW 1200) on the last day of the month will most likely favor a test of 1095-1122.

    Right now

    Gold tested 1201 on Monday.  The May 31st low is 1199.  This is currently the most important support for 2016.  The question is this---will the control boyz allow for this area to hold or will they carve out the final STOPS to set up a test of 1172-1182?  It's certainly their chance with the holiday and low volume scenario.  Let's discuss 1172-1182.

     

    There is one more area before 1095-1122 that is important.

    While the 1200-1220 area is certainly important so is 1180.  1180 is the 2013 low and if gold can't hold that area, then a move towards 1095-1122 will become the odds favored target in December. 


    If you're stacking physical gold the 1180 area would be a good place to add to your stack, but keeping in mind that it is not out of the question for gold to test 1095-1122.  

    In summary, gold remains under pressure, and we favor that the low from this correction will occur between November and January of this year.  From this coming low, prices should move higher in 2017.  


  • 17 Nov 2016 7:35 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Gold Long Term– Neutral;

    Moving averages (1223-1226)

    Even the long term chart is showing just how CRITICAL the 1180-1220 area (especially 1222) is for gold with BOTH Moving Averages and PRICE coming together AT THE SAME PLACE.

    If gold ON A MONTHLY CLOSE ONLY can keep closing above 1222 and the BULLISH Blue average moves above the BEARISH Red average, (only 3 dollars separation) then the long term trend will go from NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. UNTIL then Gold remains technically Neutral. A close below 1222 on the last Day of November will warn that 1122 will be tested.


    Gold Long Term (continued)

    The bottom line is gold must overcome the 2011 downtrend line in order to start the next leg up. Until then, the bears most likely gave their best effort here to get gold to sell off into a good correction and they have been successful. Now the next critical test, the moving averages are here.

    Another way of looking at it, is if this area can’t hold, the BULLS can’t say the bear market that began in gold is over. If they do say it, it is only opinion (and pride).



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