by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Bill Downey, of Gold Trends.net, LLC, is an Independent Investment Analyst with over twenty years of study. YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this WEBSITE AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. Do your own due diligence. No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. The author intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations.

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  • 02 Feb 2012 11:45 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Gold has reached our first resistance area for the week at 1755-1765 and has a chance of being the high for today and maybe the week. The rally is on its 23rd day and a pullback is due in this area.  The December high for the month was 1767 and the shorts are trying to stop to rally in this area.  However, gold has maintained a very strong price pattern.  As you can see by the chart, gold is trying to establish price points that will hold the current support line that it is encountering. Gold usually has a pullback from Thursday into Friday morning during weeks that have the NFP payroll data.  Thus,  the trend remains up, but a pullback into Friday could develop. If gold cannot get above 1767, a pullback to the 1744 area will be first support.

    Gold Price Chart with Channel lines and support and resistance zones

     

    Silver

    Silver is also at resistance at the 34.00-34.50 area and is the first weekly target of expectations.  Additional Resistance is the 35.03-35.50 area.  The tremendous 20% gain in January has brought new life to the silver market on a short term basis. A pullback is due and the first support area is that dotted blue Gann line below price and the yellowed out area at 32.20-32.60 area.  As long as we hold that area, the trend remains up on the short term.  Price has been at this 34 area all week and remains the key area for silver to overcome. 

    Silver Price chart with support and resistance Gann lines

     

    HUI Gold Stocks index

    Gold stocks have held the key support area of 480-500 all through 2011 and so far in 2012. As long as price holds this area, the trend will remain neutral.  Any break of 480 would suggest the gold stocks have more work to do on the downside. The trend is neutral.  February usually produces a short term peak during mid month, and a pullback into March ensues.  It takes a close below 480 on the HUI to turn the trend down.

    Hui Gold Stocks Daily Price chart with Support and resistance

     

     

     

  • 29 Jan 2012 3:30 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Gold
    The Gold Market continues to hold the Green momentum channel that was developed using the last liquidity crisis of 2008. From that price low, we constructed a "momentum" channel that has provided the velocity, slope and major support lines for the gold market. Even the upper channel line provided a major price peak resistance line. The most important point of that line is that it was DRAWN BEFORE the price highs, not after. And how about the Middle channel line. Price has only been above it once---or two months during the final blow off rally point.

    Is gold ready to re-enter that upper portion of the channel? The attempt is arriving now. For the upcoming week, the 1755-1775 area is the first point to watch. If price closes above the 1767 price area, it will have taken out the December high. That will be right up where that middle green channel line. Should PRICE CLOSE ABOVE the MIDDLE GREEN LINE on a monthly basis above 1804, odds will favor that the correction of 2011 is complete and a new up leg should be under way.

    Gold Monthly Price Chart with Trend Channels

     

    Silver
    The long term silver chart show us us the most important market point in the silver bull market. The long term blue line was the point that provided the HIGH PRICE RESISTANCE on every spike in this bull market. When it exceeded it in 2010, was the EXACT place that the acceleration took place in price. The crash of 2011 had the first leg support on this line during May and June. Then the September crash broke it and took price to 26. Look at how many times silver has come back to test this line. EVERY MONTH it comes back and tries to get above this line. ONCE price closes above this area on a monthly basis, this line will become LONG TERM SUPPORT and the bull market will have new legs.

    But what about all that talk about 200 and 500 dollar silver?

    If the bulls are correct about this, then price will re-enter the UPPER MOMENTUM CHANNEL. It's as simple as that. Only that type of SLOPE UP will support a move to these high levels. If we're going to triple digits -- there is no way that price will not enter that channel. And on this long term basis, there is only one line remaining that must be overcome to go test that momentum channel again. And that's the Long Term Blue line. Price is once again about to try and get above it. Join us on the silver button as we track the long term bull market. (check out the trading history for silver last year on our web site)

    Silver Monthly Price Chart With Long Term Channel and price support lines

     

    HUI Gold Stock Index
    The HUI gold index has been in a massive choppy and overlapping pattern all year. But when we take a long term look at the Gold Stocks, they show a 1000% gain from the 2000 low at 50. When taken in that context, maybe its the gold stocks that has been waiting for gold to catch up. In either event, as long as price continues to hold that base it has formed at 500, the long term trend is up. Once we bust thru the 650 area, odd will favor that the gold stocks will double over the next few years. The 34 month average has arrived at the bull/bear zone of support. IF this test is successful, which we favor it will, then the gold stocks will soon be joining the party again. After a year of consolidation, the market is "sober" as the froth has been wriggled out of it. We're not in a new up trend yet, and the past has shown that its going to take patience. PRICE NEEDS TO GET BACK ABOVE THOSE UPPER white lines and the 650 area. Until then, the medium term trend is NEUTRAL and the BULL MARKET has not yet resumed in this area.

    Hui Gold Bugs Index Monthly Price Chart With Long Term Channels and Support Lines

     

    US Stock Market
    The USA stock market is at a long term major resistance point. The exact low of 2011 was right where the long term up trend line and the 34 MONTH MOVING AVERAGE came in line to form a major low at 1072. Now we arrive at the most important point of 2012. We have a Cross road line junction and the LOWER bottom line OF THE 2009 WHITE MOMENTUM channel. Thus we have three ling term lines and PRICE STUFFED right underneath the "Triple Underpass."

    The chart message is clear.  A monthly close above these lines and the doom and gloom market bears are going to have to come up with a lot more explanations so they will stick to the one that is CORRECT---artificial stimulus and FED action. What about those who portend a crash is at hand? The long term chart says this is the last resistance until the 1460-1520 area in the S&P500 INDEX. That's 1000-2000 dow points higher then here. So if the bears are going to be right, they will have to be right near this area and price will have to react here. Otherwise, this market has the potential to move much higher on this long term chart. IF WE CLEAR THIS AREA,  FAVOR overall higher prices into the 20th of February---the week of President's day holiday and maybe the Easter time frame. Let's see what it does here. (Gann Overlay -- from Gunner24

    Spy (S&P 500 ETF) Monthly Price Chart with Long Term Channels lines of Support and resistance

     

    US Dollar Long Term Chart
    The Zoom in of the long term dollar chart shows that THE DOLLAR is on the VERGE of another major price failure due to the recent action of the FED. This market was ready to break higher after a 10 year bear market. Look how December price closed right ON THE CHANNEL LINE (you can't see the closing bar) And now the JANUARY BAR is about to close below the channel line as it has dropped over 240 pips here at the end of the month. Look how the 34 MONTH BULLISH BLUE AVERAGE HAS TURNED BACK DOWN and the read average is back above the blue. IF WE CLOSE THE MONTH below the BLUE MOVING AVERAGE, it becomes a RED FLAG for the long term trend as it will suggest that the DOLLAR is making it's cycle high for the year and will FAVOR another drop into the lower 70's again.

    It will take an all out LIQUIDITY PANIC coming out of Europe to take the dollar up any further from here. That is not beyond the realm by any means. We should have a good inkling next week if the revised "print till you drop" plan has enough speed to keep up with the global de-leverage that is going on. Watch that 34 month BLUE line as the key spot at the 78.77 area --- The red line is at 79.39 area. A monthly close below the blue line keeps the potential peak in play.

    US Dollar Monthly Price Chart with long term support and resistance channels

    EURO

    For the last few weeks we've posted on the Euro and the potential for a rally. We discussed that the EURO, instead of collapsing, could turn into a placebo for the German D-MARK. In other words, If the insolvent nations were to leave the Euro, it would not cripple it, rather it would increase its significance. We've also been highlighting a weekly chart of the Euro with a MAJOR HEAD AND SHOULD BOTTOM pattern. We've left the chart on the page under this chart.

    Finally, we've been discussing how the US Dollar has a high level correlation with January seasonal peaks. The chart below is the zoom in of the action for the last two weeks. The move has been strong and sharp. THE $1.25 area is the NEW SUPPORT BOTTOM FOR THE MARKET. The short term might be a bit extended here, but the point is that we don't necessarily want to write off the Euro. Can it go to par like some noted analysts suggest? Yes it could---but if that happens, THE USA exports to Europe will CLIMB 25% and will further damage an already shaky USA economy. Europe on the other hand does not want a higher Euro for the same reason the US doesn't, as they need to sell goods also. And this is the crux of the Currency Wars. There just isn't enough private consumption to further economies and the only way out of the debt problem is to have a vibrant economy.

    Euro Hourly Price Chart Rally from the January lows with short term channel lines

     

    For the technician's out there, how about this for a major bottom Head and Shoulder inverted formation? The results on the chart above certainly has been on a tear since Jan 16th.

    Euro Weekly Price Chart with Support and Resistance Channel lines

     

    Buttonwood Turn Dates
    The group is working on refining many aspects and is also studying if there are longer term signals that can be extracted from the data they use. Buttonwood dates usually emit a trend change---or an acceleration in price. As in all timing indicators---there is no holy grail.

    Want to receive Buttonwood email? Send request with Buttonwood Subscribe in subject line to info@goldtrends.net.

    Printed 36 hours before the correction low---the GLD chart shows a Weekly/LT Cluster Buster turn date---and it was right at the correction low so far in gold.

    GLD Daily Chart With Cycle Turns

     

  • 27 Jan 2012 12:00 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    What could fuel a commodity, Gold and Silver and Global revival in 2012? The Fed's come out and tell us its free money for the banks out into 2014. So now what?

    Most likely the other players are going to follow through. This is their chance to reflate and try to ge the global economy going again with a follow thru from the Fed. And who else but China to now make an announcement of their own. it would perfect timing from a global economic standpoint.  Wait till you see the chart below.

    Consider this.  With China coming back on Monday, there could be a very big market rally there, as it is one of the lessor perfoming markets for 2011. China has already in in motion to loosen Monetary policy, and with the biggest migration of people from rural to city in the history of mankind, China needs to continue to lead in its economic boom as it replaces the USA as the engine of the world. (For those wondering, the USA is arriving at the end of the tail pipe---the exhaust).

    The transformation into world leader is ALWAYS that of the one who has the economic manufacturing engine and its more than likely that this time will be no different. They are already in full process of obtaining the mineral rights required to transform their nation on a global basis and they are holding all the marbles at the moment. They are forging deals with nations to remove the US Dollar from trading. In other words, if everything works out ok, China is on the way of taking a major role in the transfer of the world currency away from the US dollar. I won't go as far to say (at the moment) that the Yuan will be the reserve currency, but at a minimum, it will play a major role and be a major percentage of the new coming World Reserve Basket Currency, and for now, I'll call that the SDR (Special Drawing rights) that was created but never used when the USA went off the Gold standard.

    The chart of China below is suggesting a major cycle bottom has a high degree of developing at this point in time. We say this point in time because, as you can see, the chart below is at a MAJOR CYCLE POINT in time. What better time for China to announce stimulus of their own as they make their way into transforming their nation into its own Product Demand economy. The chart has done everything to suggest it is setting up for a major rally. It has broken the down trend line just enough to get the technician's and the hedge funds to abandon or get stopped out of their positions just at a time when PRICE IS AT THE MAJOR CYCLE TURN POINT and the Gann Arc's and wedge lines have come to form a major convergence with time and price.

    Here's the point if the chart below is correct in signaling a major cycle bottom for China. That also means that a strong commodity rally should tag along. I have a strong suspicion that China is about to come out of this holiday with a major surge. IF PRICE MOVES ABOVE THE DOWNTREND LINE AND BACK ABOVE THE WHITE CHANNEL LINE, odds will strongly favor not only a short term rally, but a potential major bottom in it's stock market. Yes, I know the reports out there of how they are the biggest bubble of all and their economy is going to meltdown as well. By the looks of this chart, The bubble has already been deflated and if anything it reminds me of the NASDAQ's major bottom.

    The chart suggests that a reversal may well be at hand, and while the world can end tomorrow for a number of reasons, the odds of any of those reasons being in play is very very small. In other words, if you've been waiting to put a bit of money to work in China, I don't see a better time. Now, if you believe the whole world is going to meltdown, then I can understand your reluctance. BUT THE RETURNS from here for China will be huge if the REFLATION exercise and the China Migration into the cities is successful. While no one knows the future, China looks like a buy here. If it is, commodities should catch a bid. Nothing in speculation and investing is guaranteed. But without some risk, there is no reward. A small long term investment in China right now seems like an excellent long term entry point for those with an outlook to the future of China. IF CHINA RALLIES FROM HERE, I SUSPECT COMMODITIES will follow along with the winter seasonal bounce that is due.

    China Stock Market Weekly Price Chart with Support and Resistance Lines 

     

    Gold
    The Gold Market had a terrific move on Wednesday as the Fed announced a loose monetary policy. While that was certainly the catalyst, the price move was exactly at the 34 week moving average. Look how well this average has served the medium term moves since the 2008 low. Since its such an important magnet to price, it is the best indicator you can use to gauge the overall trends. Look how well it compliments our Green momentum channel, which by the way, has once again provided a major low point in price with a direct hit on last months low.

    Gold Weekly Price Chart 2008 Price Pattern vs 2011 

     

    Silver
    Silver ETF SLV
    Silver continues to move off the lows. The MAJOR event here is since SLV only trades in New York, look how the low of Dc 29th was a new LOW as the September drop LOW was not during New York market hours. The December test made a new low on the charts with significance and completed a six wave liquidity low. Although there still is a small potential for one push lower to that lower line, it doesn't matter for longer term investors, but only for traders. We took advantage of the last drop and added at 27.40 for accumulation and 28.63 for a trade. (We sold the trade at 32.29). Price favors that the lows have been made in Silver. If we follow historical norms, 2012 should be a wide trading range, but overall a consolidation.

    Silver Using SLV ETF 2008 Price Pattern vs 2011

     

    HUI Gold Stock Index
    The HUI Gold index has been in a massive choppy and overlapping pattern all year. The "intermediate term" moving average trend has given a buy signal for a trade as the bullish bule average has moved above the red. As you can see by the chart, this indicator has a good track record even in a chop to ascertain the "trend"---We just got the signal so any pullback to teh 513-520 area is a consideration for a short term long.

    HUI Gold Stock Index Price Chart with Support Line

     

    The US Stock Market
    Price continues to rise inside an new upleg for stocks. An intrim peak is approaching but is not quite here yet. The trends on our moving averages remain up.

    S&P 500 ETF SPY Moving Average Trend Price Chart

     

    US Dollar
    The US dollar remains in an intermediate up trend but is at a potential point of failure inside a wedge. The white line is a long term channe line so this area is important. Price for the time in a month has dropped below the moving averages, and is throwing up a RED FLAG warning that the "Trend" is being challenged. Seasonally, the Dollar usually tops in January, so that plays as well. There's a huge short crowd in the EURO too---and the potential for the EURO to rally is a strong consideration as well.

    US Dollar Daily Price Chart with Wedge Formation

     

    EURO
    The EURO has reached a long term support line. Telling is how price dropped below it just enough to trigger the stops and have the technicians go bearish. But as we've said many times, its not the break of the channel that is important, its what price does right after that. With the entire market on the short side, its not going to take a lot to get them covering their leveraged positions. Price is already at the moving averages and while the trend is still down, we favor a rally attempt here. Note how the 2011 January low was right in this zone. This is most likely the range that the central banks are supporting on the downside. Barring a major default, the Euro could surprise everyone and begin an upturn that could last into the March/April timeframe.

    For the technicians out there, how about this for a major bottom Head and Shoulder inverted formation.

    EURO Weekly Price Chart

  • 26 Jan 2012 1:55 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Gold (using ETF) GLD - Moving Average Trend - Bullish
    A short term view of gold using the ETF (GLD). Since GLD only trades in New York, it gives us a different price pattern. The blue and red lines are the moving averages we use to gauge the Intermediate term trend. As you can see it does a good job of identifying a trend that is longer than short term, but shorter than medium term. Its a good tool for swing traders. The trend turned back up on Jan 12th at 159.66
    When ever the Blue moving average is above the red average and price is above both averages, the trend is up. When the red average is above the blue and price is below both, the trend is down. Price is at a very important resistance area. A close above the White resistance line will favor a move to the Green Channel line.

    Gold Moving Average Trend


    Silver
    Silver ETF SLV
    Silver prices broke sharply higher on Wednesday. The silver ETF (SLV) price has pushed back inside the huge wedge pattern from 2011. The test now will be for silver to hold the lower dotted trend line. Support is the moving averages. As long as the blue line moving average is above the red and price is above both, the trend is up.

    Silver Moving Average Trend


    HUI Gold Stock Index
    The HUI gold index has been in a massive choppy and overlapping pattern all year but somehow has managed to stay above the bull/bear line for all of 2011. As long as price is above 480 on the HUI the trend remains neutral. A close above the 540 area on Friday will keep this bounce going.

    HUI Daily Price Chart


    The US Stock Market
    Price is at a major resistance area and that is what the street is watching. That dotted trend line. However we show resistance just above that in the old rally channel from the 2009 lows. A break above that line and the market trend will remain up on the short term.

    SPY Moving Average Trend

  • 20 Jan 2012 12:00 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Gold
    Gold has run into some important resistance at the 1670 area where the dotted up and downtrend lines reside. It takes a push above here to favor higher. There is additional resistance at the middle green channel line. Price is also at the daily moving averages so its a short term make or break area. Its also important longer term as next week is the Chinese new year. In 2010 and 2011, gold made its' lows right at the week of the Chinese New Year and never looked back. However, 2008 and the last liquidity crisis found gold peaking in February and pulling back in March. Regardless, the one constant is whether gold will be able to move above this 1670 area in the next few days. A failure at this area next week would favor a pullback into the first week of February. The long term trend is still up, but the medium term has been in a correction that reached 20% of price value. Its going to take a close above the middle green trend line to categorize the medium term as uptrending.

    Gold Weekly Price Chart with Channel Line Support and Resistance

    Silver
    It's the same with silver. It's at its moving averages and just below some key resistance lines. If price gets above the moving averages and the 31 dollar area, a move to the 32-34 area would be in play. Next week will be the key test for the metals. The latest reports from the US Mint show silver coin demand exploded since price reached the 26 dollar area. Our call in May for a 6 to 12 month correction is now in its 9th month. The 26 dollar is very important as it was the lowest price in 2011 and as you can see by the chart, this is now the 3rd major test of this line.

    The members area has a lot more data on what we should be expecting for silver as the 2012 forecast was posted on the silver button last week.

    Silver Daily Price Chart with Trend Line Support and Resistance

     

    HUI Gold Stock Index
    The HUI gold index has been in a massive choppy and overlapping pattern all year. This is now the 5th time we hold the 480 area in the HUI. This area is the line in the sand and we've been using the 480-520 area for quite a while. A break below this area would warn of a test into the 400-420 area.

    The medium term trend remains neutral, and yet another bounce attempt is underway. Thursday's two percent drop puts the situation back on guard. While we can't rule out a price drop, the gold stocks have a tendency to bottom in the July/August area most often. However, there is a dip that usually happens this time of year as many of the higher lattitude gold mines close for the winter. What we usually see is a buy point gets set up in the January timeframe and then a rally takes place into April/May. From there the pullback to the July/August lows repeat. While this is not a time to sell, there are a lot of stops below 480 and it would not surprise me if they are going to try and attack that line to trip off the stops that are below there. And since it's such a well defined support area, there will be lot of stops below 480. After five major tests of this line, it won't take much more to have the longs throw in the towel.

    HUI Gold Stock Index Daily Price Chart with Support and Resistance 

     

    The US Stock Market
    The stock market is at major resistance and looks like it's ready to make a run at the 135 area with just a few more strong up days. Earnings are the leading catalyst. With the stock market moving up to this area the medium term trend is neutral but has not turned bullish. However, if the blue moving average moves above the red, and price is above both, any break into the higher channel will suggest the rally will continue.

    SPY Weekly Price Chart with Channel Line Support and Resistance

     

    US Dollar
    The US dollar remains in an intermediate up trend but is at it's first long term resistance point. Price has stretched to the outer boundary of this line and this is where the decision in the USD and the Euro are coming into play. The chart shows there's still the potential that a continued liquidity crisis could foster a panic into the dollar that could lead to the long term bull/bear zone. This type of move however will require a panic. Otherwise, the Fed is going to to everything it can to weaken its' value.

    Weekly Dollar Index with Long Term Channel Lines 

     

    The EURO
    The EUROhas reached a long term support line. Telling is how price dropped below it just enough to trigger the stops and have the technicians go bearish. But as we've said many times, it's not the break of the channel that is important, it's what price does right after that. With the entire market on the short side, it's not going to take a lot to get them covering their leveraged positions. Price is already at the moving averages and while the trend is still down, we favor a rally attempt here. Note how the 2011 January low was right in this zone. This is most likely the range that the central banks are supporting on the downside. Barring a major default, the Euro could surprise everyone and begin an upturn that could last into the March/April timeframe.
    By holding euros today, you are betting that you are in fact holding a new form of
    deutschmark!

    EURO Daily Price Chart with Support and Resistance Lines

     

    Buttonwood Turn Dates
    As you can see, three of the last four LT II Dates have marked the longer term trading range boundaries. Also, the descending wedge formation is nearly ideal on this chart. These formations are considered bullish when price nears the apex of the two trend lines and breaks upward. The next LT II Date will occur between March 28 and April 4. My guess is that a PM top will occur a week or two prior to that date, but that is pure speculation at this time.

    AGQ Daily Price CChart with Cycle Turn Dates

     

  • 14 Jan 2012 3:03 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    The long term bull market in gold has been and is undergoing a long term correction. As you can see by the chart below, gold completed a 144 month Fibonacci bull market wave. The last 34 Fibonacci months was from the crash of 2008 to the peak last August. This correction is in line with long term price waves. The correction should last longer from a time perspective. Candidates range from 3,5,8 and 13 months. Our current outlook is for March/April to be the favored time range for a 2012 turn point. It is the favored but from a long term perspective, a more reasonable expectation would be for an event that took place during year 6 (the half way point of this current wave.) There we say a high in May of 2006 and began a sideways correction that took almost 17 months (1/2 of 34 months) to complete but then only two months to make an all time new high when the move began. Thus it is possible that this pullback will take longer than most of us think. I'm reading a book called the Spiral Calander that reader Dave G sent me. So there's moore to come once I finish reading it.

    Finally, the middle Gann line and the adaptive moving average at 1544 just happen to be where the 23% retrace number resides and all three have met up for a test of the long term. Thus this area is a very important test of the long term. One that we have to keep an eye on as to where the January Low ends up listing. So far the 1564 print open of 2012 is the low. Watch the 1500-1530 area as it is a very long term support area that is important. (Overlay by www.gunner24.com.)

    Gold Monthly Price Chart Long Term Price Supports

    The Two Main Channels of Silver
    Long Term Main Channel---Buy Zone 17.29 - 22.00 and 24.26 - 29.16

    The main channel of silver is rising $4 dollars per year. It is the Long Term Uptrend for the 21st Century Silver Bull Market. This channel has two major price supports of 17 - 24 and 24 - 29 dollars. This is where long term buyers should focus on.

    The lowest long term support line and the 78% Fibonacci retrace line target at 17.29 and that is the lowest price allowed on a long term basis to technically say that silver is in a long term bull market. The line itself runs at the 21-22 dollar area and climbs to about 25 buy the end of 2012. The original price explosion breakout line at 21.50 is the other important long term price point. If silver moves to the lower green price line on the chart, it should be considered a MAJOR buy point and one should allocate accordingly. For those looking for $100 dollar silver, the Main Channel is your pivot point. As long as price is in the Main Channel, there run to triple digit silver is on hold.

    Momentum Channel
    The Momentum Channel represents as Bix Weir would put it, the road to Roota, which is in essence, the road to 100 dollars and higher. The crash of silver out of the momentum channel has drawn silver back to important long term price lines. The double bottom at 26 is important as it is the same price as we entered 2011 and is the Elliot Wave's 4th wave of a lessor degree. ( A very important support area for bull market pullbacks.) In order for the Superbull to be back in motion, price needs to get back in the momentum channel. The main channel is the only alternative and its only growing at 4 dollars per year. It takes a monthly close back above 40 dollars for silver to be considered back in its explosion up.

    If you've been waiting to take a long term position in silver and have no inventory,  this is a place that you'd want to take an initial POSITION. Even long term buyers should be considering adding at this area. In order for the long term TREND to get back in SUPER UP MODE, price has to return in the momentum channel on a monthly closing basis. The medium term remains in a bear market but price is at the 2nd most important price point in the Bull Market. Physical is the new way to go and holding it in your hands. If the bull market in silver is still alive, and we think it is, then these two price area's is the place to be accumulating.

    Silver Weekly Price Chart with Long Term Support Price

    HUI Gold Stock Index
    The HUI gold index has been in a massive choppy and overlapping pattern all year. This is now the 5th time we hold the 480 area in the HUI. This area is the line in the sand area we've watched for a full year. A break below this area would warn of a test into the 400 area. The medium term trend remains neutral and yet another bounce attempt is underway. As long as we're above the 480 area on the HUI, the trend has not GIVEN way to the downside.

    HUI Weekly Price Chart with Support and Resistance

    The US Stock Market
    The stock market is at major resistance and is an area that need be watched carefully for a peak. Price is either at the cusp of a big breakout or it's about to reverse lower. If its higher, it will be that Earnings are" better than expected." As long as they can spin that story, they might have a chance. Price is above the 34 week moving average and if we move above this channel line, we'll look for a rally into the end of January. If price is to turn down, this coming week is the odds favorite.

    SPY Weekly Price Chart with Long Term Channels

    US Dollar
    The US Dollar remains in an intermediate up trend but is at its first long term resistance point. However real resistance looks more to be in the 83.50 to 86 area. For now, the trend is up but its main driver is scared money finding a short term hiding place. The best example we can give of the dollars future is the news that China and Japan agreed to not use the USD in trade between both nations and that Japan will be buying Chinese bonds. I cannot recall a bigger slap in the face for USA in a while. But on the other hand, the USA has been slapped so much lately that most are 'punch drunk.' The trend remains up but as this long term chart shows, it a long road ahead. The stronger seasonal for the dollar usually ends in January. However, the continued money flow out of Europe continues to benefit the US Dollar. The convergence of the arc, and the red and blue dotted trend lines at 85-86 should be a difficult point to overcome. It's certainly a major resistance area. The trend is still up, but the only thing that could ever spark a rally in the dollar would be a panic for cash. Otherwise, all other fundamental's are pointing to a reserve currency that is in trouble long term.
    From a technical standpoint, as long as price is above the lower red dotted trendline, the intermediate and medium term trend is up, but it's just a bounce in a long term downtrend.

    US Dollar Monthly Price Chart with Gann Support and Resistance

    The EURO
    The EURO has been the center of attention and the media is filled with how much it has dropped. But they are looking with short term goggles on and not a longer term telescope. In fact the Euro is still trading just as high as was the case 20 years ago. However, the real trade did not begin until near the turn of the century. The point is the Euro for all its problems is no lower than in 2008. This does not mean that it is strong however, but that it is keeping in lockstep with the devaluation that is occuring in the US Dollar. Thus the waves we are seeing is nothing more than the Dollar and the Euro taking turns printing and bailing out all the debt that is defaulting. Banks might be too big to fail,  but nations are going to be to big to BAIL. Support is the 118 to 120 area. As long as price is above that area, the trend on a long term basis has not turned down against the dollar.

    By holding Euros today, you are betting that you are in fact holding a new form of deutschmark!

    EURO Monthly Price Chart with Gann Support and Resistance

    Buttonwood Turn Dates (BELOW)
    The group is working on refining many aspects and is also studying if there are longer term signals that can be extracted from the data they use. Buttonwood dates usually emit a trend change, or an acceleration in price. As in all timing indicators, there is no holy grail.

    The Forecasted Buttonwood date for a DEC 15th low was RIGHT ON THE DAY.  The next short term trend was the 28th and 29th which produced the low we just saw and now we have arrived at the next key date, Jan 4th. So far, that was the high on this bounce. The next turn date is Jan 12-13th time frame. If we exceed last weeks high on a closing basis, it will suggest higher to the next date, otherwise with stochastic's near a turn the potential that this was the peak and we're heading down to this next date (end of this coming week). A close below that last hammer bar on this price chart would favor the move down to the 12th is in play.

    Buttonwood GDXJ Timer Daily Cycles

     

     

  • 12 Jan 2012 9:03 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    The long term bull market in gold has been and is undergoing a long term correction. As you can see by the chart below, gold completed a 144 month Fibonacci bull market wave. The last 34 Fibonacci months was from the crash of 2008 to the peak last August. This correction is in line with long term price waves. The correction should last longer from a time perspective. Candidates range from 3,5,8 and 13 months. Our current outlook is for March/April to be the favored time range for a 2012 turn point. It is the favored but from a long term perspective, a more reasonable expectation would be for an event that took place during year 6  the half way point of this current wave.) There we say a high in May of 2006 and began a sideways correction that took almost 17 months (1/2 of 34 months) to complete but then only two months to make an all time new high when the move began. Thus it is possible that this pullback will take longer than most of us think. I'm reading a book called the Spiral Calander that reader Dave G sent me. So there's moore to come once I finish reading it.

    Finally, the middle Gann line and the adaptive moving average at 1544 just happen to be where the 23% retrace number resides and all three have met up for a test of the long term. Thus this area is a very important test of the long term. One that we have to keep an eye on as to where the January Low ends up listing. So far the 1564 print open of 2012 is the low. Watch the 1500-1530 area as it is a very long term support area that is important. (Overlay by www.gunner24.com)

    Gold Monthly Price Chart with Long Term Support Price

    A zoom in closer on the weekly chart shows a 26 week cycle at play. All year we've advocated that a liquidity squeeze would resemble 2008 and that would be the only fundamental that could bring us a correction in 2011. Note how the action is playing out almost exactly as in 2008. If we are following this time line the final low is not yet complete. The February timeframe is when the next cycle is due. A mid February high will suggest a March/April low. It doesn't have to be lower then the December low, but should still set up the Spring buy point.

    Gold Weekly Price Chart with Long Term Channels

    Long term = Up / Medium Term = Neutral to down / Intermediate term= down / Short term=Neutral

    Silver is attempting to bounce back to 30 dollars ad is arriving at the moving averages. Resistance is the BLUE channel line.

    Silver Daily Price Chart with Moving Averages

     

    Hui Gold Stock Index
    The HUI gold index has been in a massive choppy and overlapping pattern all year. This is now the 5th time we hold the 480 area in the HUI. This area is the line in the sand area we've watched for a full year. A break below this area would warn of a test into the 400 area. The medium term trend remains neutral and yet another bounce attempt is underway. As long as we're above the 480 area on the HUI, the trend has not GIVEN way to the downside.

    HUI Daily Price Chart 

     

    The US Stock Market
    The stock market is nearing major resistance and is an area that need be watched carefully for a peak. The first few days of January should provide a rally but after that we need to be on guard. If price can hurdle this area, we'll reconsider.

    SPY Daily Price Chart with Moving Averages

     

    US Dollar
    The US dollar remains in an intermediate up trend and is trying to improve its bullish status from weekly to Monthly. This 80-83 area will be a major turn point in 2012 which decides whether we move to the 90 area or turn back down. The trend remains up but price is at YEARLY RESISTANCE at it's challenging the 2010 highs. A new yearly HIGH above the last would be the first one I remember for a while. It's certainly a long term price point as the long term red and blue moving averages have finally come back together and are drifting sideways. This is happening at a time when PRICE IS ALSO right at the moving averages at at the EDGE OF THE LONG TERM downtrend channel line. It's the most important PIVOT spot for price in the last five years. Manipulated or not, the US Dollar made is all time low some 37 months ago and the LONG TERM TREND is ready to go from BEARISH to NEUTRAL. It might not sound like much, but it's opening the door for a rally to a minimum of 87 and up to 92 on the INDEX. If that happens, it suggests that the liquidity crunch will get much more SEVERE and bring on danger levels to the global financial centers as world money flows head for the biggest liquid market.

    Dollar Price Chart with Lon gTerm Channel


    The EURO remains in a downtrend and is at a long term lower support line. The medium term trend remains down. Price still needs to take out these area's of LINE support. More interesting is there is a long term INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern that has formed. What on earth could provide support to the EURO in this area? By holding euros today, you are betting that you are in fact holding a new form of deutschmark!

    Euro Weekly Price Chart with Channels

     

    Buttonwood Turn Dates

    The group is working on refining many aspects and is also studying if there are longer term signals that can be extracted from the data they use. Buttonwood dates usually emit a trend change, or an acceleration in price. As in all timing indicators, there is no holy grail.

    Want to receive Buttonwood e-mail? Email info@goldtrends.net with the Subject "Subscribe to Buttonwoods".

    To read more of our Buttonwood's update, click the new button in menu (left).  All welcome.  You'll find more charts too.

    The Forecasted Buttonwood date for a DEC 15th low was RIGHT ON THE DAY.  The next short term trend was the 28th and 29th which produced the low we just saw and now we have arrived at the next key date, Jan 4th. So far that was the high on this bounce. The next turn date is Jan 12-13th time frame. If we exceed last weeks' high on a closing basis, it will suggest higher to the next date. Otherwise, with stochastic's near a turn, the potential is that this was the peak and we're heading down to this next date (end of this coming week). A close below that last hammer bar on this price chart would favor the move down to the 12th is in play.

    Buttonwood Daily Cycle Timer

    January 1 2012 ~ SEASONAL UPDATE
    The longer term seasonals show that the February area is a great place for a first quarter top and that is what we will favor. We'll look for a pullback into the week of Jan 9th and then a push up into the 3rd week of January and then a pullback near month end. If price makes a high near Jan 9th, then we'll look for a pullback instead to the third week of January.

    http://www.mrci.com/web/index.php  (chart below Moore Research)

    Seasonal Price Chart

  • 08 Jan 2012 5:28 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Gold Trend
    Long = up / Medium term = neutral  / Intermediate term = Down / Short term = neutral

    Let's start with Gold and the long term chart analysis; what it tells us about the three time frames; long, medium, and intermediate term.

    We are always being bombarded with analysis that says "long term, medium term, short term," these being the three time frames most followed. There is a fourth intermediate term that appears on the weekly charts. Short term is best left to daily charts. If you don't know what time frame you're in, how do you know when to buy long term?  Or short term? If you're a long term investor and you're not buying at the low end of the long term range, you're probably paying too much for your purchase. Put it this way, you're not getting it where the most likely low price point is going to occur. It is paramount to success that you know what time frame price is reflecting, and more important, to know what time frame your investment style best suits you. The reason you might not be doing as well as you should is that your trading in the wrong time frame resulting in entry's in the market that are not optimal. Read on, here's what we mean.

    This will give you a good overview of how we separate long, medium and intermediate term price action.

    One of the biggest reasons we as investors can't see the forest for the tree's is that price is active on about five or six different time frames and we are forever getting them mixed up or not considered them when we invest.

    A great example we can give so you might understand is this. See if that rings a bell, recalling a trade like this.  When you buy a stock or a futures contract due to your convictions for a long or medium term move you buy it with a plan to hold it for a while.

    Has this ever happened to you?

    You find yourself within a week (sometimes only one day LOL) of having bought a long term position, that you're already selling and closing the trade. Your purchase was either too big or too leveraged or you're not really a long term investor (long term investors don't sell out in a week). You weren't really wearing your long term "view" when you made the purchase. If you did, you used short term parameters to exit. There is no other reason for selling out the position so soon. Right ? The only one we can think of that would be valid is an emergency happens and you needed the money and had no choice but to liquidate. You must know the price ranges that separate the long, medium and intermediate term zones. Only then can you really invest where long term price ranges exist. Here's what we mean.

    The chart below is divided into three channel's of price. Each channel gives a price range deviation that measures the total range of price combined with velocity (momentum or slope of the price advance). Thus we have the long, medium and intermediate term trends.

    The Red Channel line is a Long Term Channel from 1993 and is the smallest long term channel but the one that provides the price action we are most concerned with. Though you can't see the beginning of the line, it is measured from an important price cross. It's validity was confirmed during 2009 and most of 2010. There you see how price spent almost a full year trading at or just below that long term Red Line. It's validity is further strengthened buy the big move up once price broke above that channel.

    The next channel on the chart is the Main Channel. This channel line is taken from 2001/2002 lows and covers this new 21st century gold bull market's original price range and momentum for the first 8 years of the bull market. At the end of 2010 and 2011 price broke above the main channel line and toyed with the red channel line for a year. Note how the EXACT BREAKOUT IN PRICE was when the third Time frame (intermediate) lower green line met with the main channel line, and both of those met up with the long term red line. This at the SAME POINT TIME that price was there also. This is where PRICE AND TIME meet. The result was a long term BREAKOUT of significant force. On this chart we call this final time frame the MOMENTUM channel instead of intermediate. Due to its time length, its actually now a medium term channel.

    Gold Weekly Price Chart with Long and Medium Term Channels, Support Lines, Buy Zones & Moving Avgs

    Finally, we get to the points made from the chart. First, is that the lower green channel line or the Upper red channel line are the two most likely targets for a 2012 low. We've had the buy signal on medium and long term accumulation from 1448-1552 on our weekly button for a few weeks. Thus either this lower green channel line holds and we have the low for the year in place, or price has got one more leg down in the 1350 area---plus or minus 50 dollar area.

    If you're a long term investor, your best plan to buy at both price area's. Question---those who have told you where the low was and to buy.  Have they been correct so far? If yes, stick with them. If no, that's because no one knows where THE LOW will be. IF NO ONE KNOWS where the real low will be, then the BEST THING is knowing where the CLOSEST TWO AREA'S OF LONG TERM SUPPORT RESIDES and THAT is where to buy in 2012. If the latter and lowest price doesn't come in, and the green channel holds and ends this correction - you at least have the current purchase at the lows and any move up from here will be profitable. If price does have a move to the red channel line, that is where the second position of the year should be put on. The importance of these price parameters are important for one reason. THEY ARE NOT BIASED. While a human still has to draw the lines, it is drawn from points that PRICE makes. It is the least arbitrary non-biased data that we have to make price projections. And if we think about it, what else could be better than price itself? The channel lines on this chart are the same one's we were using two years ago.

    There's lots more on things like this in the member buttons, but in summary, we've been saying since we hit the lower green line, we're at one of two places where the odds are the highest for a yearly price low. Investors should act accordingly and that is to buy a bit near the price area we suggested (a few weeks ago on the member pages) and buy just enough that you can still sleep at night. If you're already in trouble in your average price from buying at the upper levels of the green channel line, give our subscription a try. From the chart below, you'll have a good perspective of where the important price points are going forward.

    Epilogue:
    The same chart is printed again below so you can see as you read. The lower green channel line (first target) or the upper red channel line are the two most likely targets for a 2012 low. The lower green channel line is the lowest intermediate and medium term PRICE range. As long as we remain above the lower green channel (with a 50 dollar allowance for price stops) this momentum channel remains in effect. Purchases as an investor should be bought at this lower green line. But it should only be done with the notion that price can still test the long term red 1993 line on the chart if we get a break from the lower green channel line. The fundamental would be the "liquidity crisis" and we've already witnessed in 2008 what that did to price. Although many said "it won't happen this time, price won't go down, it did go down. We've been in the gold can go down on a liquidity squeeze, and all of our past reports on the member buttons show that we've had that conclusion for a while that if could bring gold down.

    And why the lower green channel line so important for support? Because the market has shown us for three years, it has held every price test of that area. It is the current "momentum slope" But we say buy with the notion that we are going to test the long term red line for two reasons. First, after three years of price testing, the chance of a break of this channel line has grown. The liquidity crunch is the only thing that could possibly bring the price down, at least that was our forecast since the beginning of 2011 (not after last September).

    Gold Weekly Price Chart with Long and Medium Term Channel with support, buy zone and moving average

    We have the buy signal on medium and long term accumulation from 1448-1552. Thus either this lower green channel line holds and we have the low for the year in place, or price has got one more leg down in the 1350 area, plus or minus 50 dollars where the long term Red Channel line resides. If you're a long term investor, your best plan to buy at both price area's. If the latter doesn't come in, you at least have the current purchase and could very well be the low for this correction. There's lots more on memeber sights, but in summary, and as we've been saying since we hit the lower green line and we're at one of two places where the odds are the highest for a yearly price low. If the GLOBAL liquidity crisis escalates out of Europe, then the potential for gold to have one leg lower to the 1993 line will come in play. It would be there another long term buy point could be considered.

    Short Term Price Trends and the Gold ETF (GLD)
    For those who follow GLD, the Gold ETF (below)--- last weeks low was a direct hit off a long term support line. The bounce back up has come to the moving averages and the 159-161 area should be resistance on Thursday. The chart doesn't show the Friday Action, but gold's resistance remained at the moving averages. Now comes next week. With a short term CYCLE turn due next week, we find out if the trend is ready to favor moving up, or we get resisted at these averages and turn back down. This is not a cop out, but rather we're telling you this is the point in price (resistance) for the short term and that whatever way price breaks from here next week, favors that trend to move in the same direction into the latter portion of January. The time for a cycle turn (not shown) is is this coming week. From the 9th through the 13th of January is when the next time point is due. So next week should set the pace and develop the next short term move into the 23rd of January.

    Notice how our moving averages have done an excellent job all year providing us the "TREND" of the market on an intermediate time frame. If there is one indicator you're looking for that provides the "trend" this indicator is excellent. Whenever the red line is above the blue line and price is below both averages, the intermediate term trend is "BEARISH" Whenever the blue 34 BAR BLUE moving average is above the RED 13 bar moving average and price is above both average lines, the trend is up. A note about the indicators. The blue average is a 34 bar or 136 hour moving average. The advantage in using GLD is that its the NEW YORK Session price only, where the highest volume in the gold market occurs. It makes the price patterns much more interesting to me. But there's even more to learn from this chart. Much more.

    Gold Moving Average Trend

    It suggests that there has been a shift, at least for the moment, where price is becoming much more important outside the USA sessions and the moves have gotten bigger. That will make it harder on the ETF traders of GLD and SLV. But it also could very well be that the "control boyz" have expanded their territory.

    The chart shows (above and below chart the same so you can see and read) price gaps where trade occurs in the rest of the globe and not of New York influence. Notice on the way up on the final big move how gold began to have price gaps as soon as price moved above the middle green channel line. What was a new all time high in price. Since that point, price gaps began to appear on the charts. we can count 13 of them as opposed to just one.

    And what and why is that important and what does it tell us ? A lot. There's a lot more than meets the eye.

    First and foremost, it tells us that GOLD is no longer CONTROLLED by just the New York Market but that GOLD has gone Global. As new markets for gold open in China and Hong Kong and other Asian and oversea's market, they become a driving force with "influence" on price and that gold has TOTALLY become a "GLOBAL 24 hour Market." And that means those markets are going to have more influence as we move forward. Not that the "control boyz" won't be participating there, but simply that interest is global now as is influence. Many people look forward to this new MARKET in Asia to finally put an end to USA control of "manipulated" price. And it sounds reasonable. That is if you think the "control boyz" are NOT BEHIND the new exchanges. Do you own Google searches, but some of the names we saw aren't exactly choir boys. Since the PEAK there has been five price GAPS down and two, or maybe three, depending on how you measure them. (we didn't use some of the tiny ones). It suggests that there has been a shift, at least for the moment, where price is becoming much more important outside the USA sessions and the moves have gotten bigger. That will make it harder on the ETF traders of GLD and SLV. But it also could very well be that the "control boyz" have expanded their territory.

    Gaps also tell us when a MAJOR move has gotten out of control and usually signals to be on watch for a peak.

     

    Silver Trend
    Long term = Up / Medium Term = Neutral to down / Intermediate term= down / Short term=Neutral

    Silver and the 21st Century Bull Market
    Today's look at silver uses SLV---the Silver ETF. A major low might be in the making, but as you can see, this has been a major crash and a three dollar move in silver---10%---still leaves a long way to go. NO TRENDS have yet turned up. This so far is just a bounce. It has the chance of being a key low, but how many times have you heard that in the last 8 months that the low is in. Not one from here. We're not ready to say it, but we're watching this one carefully. There was major US MINT sales to open the year --- levels that have not been seen before. That should be enough to keep this bounce going. Watch the ADP on Thursday and the Non-Farm Payroll on Friday. If those are bullish, silver can get a nice move up here.

    Silver Moving Average Trend

     

    HUI Gold Stock Index
    The HUI gold index has been in a massive choppy and overlapping pattern all year. This is now the 5th time we hold the 480 area in the HUI. This area is the line in the sand area we've watched for a full year. A break below this area would warn of a test into the 400 area. The medium term trend remains neutral, and yet another bounce attempt is underway. As long as we're above the 480 area on the HUI, the trend has NOT GIVEN way to the downside.

    HUI Daily Price Chart with Channel lines and Bull/Bear Zone

     

    The US Stock Market
    The stock market is nearing major resistance, and is an area that need be watched carefully for a peak. The first few days of January should provide a rally, but after that we need to be on guard. If price can hurdle this area, we'll reconsider.

    SPY Daily Price Chart with Channels and Bull/Bear zone

     

    US Dollar
    The US Dollar remains in an intermediate uptrend and is trying to improve its bullish status from weekly to Monthly. This 80-83 area will be a major turn point in 2012 which decides whether we move to the 90 area or turn back down. The trend remains up but price is at YEARLY RESISTANCE at it's challenging the 2010 highs. A new yearly HIGH above the last would be the first one we remember for a while. It's certainly a long term price point as the long term red and blue moving averages have finally come back together and are drifting sideways. This is happening at a time when PRICE IS ALSO right at the moving averages at at the EDGE OF THE LONG TERM downtrend channel line. It's the most important PIVOT spot for price in the last five years. Manipulated or not, the US Dollar made is all time low some 37 months ago and the LONG TERM TREND is ready to go from BEARISH to NEUTRAL. It might not sound like much, but it's opening the door for a rally to a minimum of 87 and up to 92 on the INDEX. If that happens, it suggests that the liquidity crunch will get much more SEVERE and bring on danger levels to the global financial centers as world money flows head for the biggest liquid market.

    US Dollar monthly Price Chart with Channels and Bull/Bear zone

     

    The Euro
    The Euro remains in a downtrend and is at a long term lower support line. The medium term trend remains down. Price still needs to take out these area's of LINE support. More interesting is there is a long term INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern that has formed. What on earth could provide support to the EURO in this area?

    By holding Euro's today, you are betting that you are in fact holding a new form of Deutschmark!

    Euro Weekly Price Chart with Channels and Moving Average

     

    Buttonwood Turn Dates

    The group is working on refining many aspects and is also studying if there are longer term signals that can be extracted from the data they use. Buttonwood dates usually emit a trend change, or an acceleration in price. As in all timing indicators, there is no holy grail.

    Want to receive Buttonwood e-mail? Email info@goldtrends.net with the Subject "Subscribe to Buttonwoods".

    To read more of our Buttonwood's update, click the new button in menu (left).  All welcome.  You'll find more charts too.

    The Forecasted Buttonwood date for a DEC 15th low was RIGHT ON THE DAY.  The next short term trend was the 28th and 29th which produced the low we just saw and now we have arrived at the next key date, Jan 4th. So far that was the high on this bounce. The next turn date is Jan 12-13th time frame. If we exceed last weeks' high on a closing basis, it will suggest higher to the next date. Otherwise, with stochastic's near a turn, the potential is that this was the peak and we're heading down to this next date (end of this coming week). A close below that last hammer bar on this price chart would favor the move down to the 12th is in play.

    Buttonwood's Daily Trend Time (GDXJ)

     

    January 1 2012 ~ SEASONAL UPDATE
    The longer term seasonals show that the February area is a great place for a first quarter top and that is what we will favor. We'll look for a pullback into the week of Jan 9th and then a push up into the 3rd week of January and then a pullback near month end. If price makes a high near Jan 9th, then we'll look for a pullback instead to the third week of January.

    http://www.mrci.com/web/index.php  (chart below Moore Research)

    Gold 34-Year Seasonal Price Chart

     

  • 04 Jan 2012 5:20 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    We are just about done our Monthly report for January with the 2012 forcast. Last year we published our 2011 forecast for gold on the chart below. The green circled area was our monthly price projection for 2011. The red circled area was the actual price for the year. we have completed the 2012 outlook and we hope to have the monthly acompleted by next week at the latest. (as a preview it calls for the 2012 low to be in March/April timeframe near the 1400 area).

    Last year's projection called for a price high of about 1840 as a high for the year and the actual was 1922. The price high did come earlier than the projection as November was the favored candidate and September was the intra day high and August was the closing monthly high. The projection called for only one correction for 2011, in mid year during July and August. The actual correction began in late August and bottomed in September. It projected a low of around 1550 as the pullback low and the September low was 1532. Finally, it did call for a lower low in December but projected a close above 1700 for the year and price came in at 1540. The original chart can be seen on the Monthly Button (January 2011)

    Gold Monthly 2011 Forecast vs Results

     

    For those who follow GLD -- the gold ETF --- last weeks low was a direct hit off off a long term support line. The bounce back up has come to the moving averages ---- and the 159-161 area should be resistance on Thursday ---- the ADP report in the morning should set the Pace for Gold and equities.

    GLD Gold ETF price chart with moving averages and channel lines

     

    Silver and the 21st Century Bull Market

    Tonight's look at silver uses SLV --- the silver ETF. A major low might be in the making, but as you can see, this has been a major crash and a three dollar move in silver --- 10% ---- still leaves a long way to go. NO TRENDS HAVE yet turned up. This so far is just a bounce. It has the chance of being a key low --- but how many times have you heard that in the last 8 months ... that the low is in. Not one from here. I'm not ready to say it ------ but i'm watching this one carefully. There was major US MINT sales to open the year ----levels that have not been seen before. That should be enough to keep this bounce going. Watch the ADP on Thursday and the Non-Farm Payroll on Friday. If those are bullish -- silver can get a nice move up here.

    SLV Silver ETF Price Chart with moving averages and channel lines

     

    Hui Gold Stock Index

    The HUI gold index has been in a massive choppy and overlapping pattern all year. This is now the 5th time we hold the 480 area in the HUI. This area is the line in the sand area we've watched for a full year. A break below this area would warn of a test into the 400 area. The medium term trend remains neutral --- and yet another bounce attempt is underway. As long as we're above the 480 area on the HUI --- the trend has not GIVEN way to the downside.

    Hui Gold Index Price Chart with moving averages and channel lines

     

    The US Stock market

    The stock market is nearing major resistance --- and is an area that need be watched carefully for a peak. The first few days of January should provide a rally -- but after that we need to be on guard. If price can hurdle this area, we'll reconsider.

    Spy Price Chart with daily moving averages and trend lines

     

    US Dollar

    The US dollar remains in an uptrend and is trying to give a long term buy signal. This 80-83 area will be a major turn point in 2012

    US Dollar Monthly Price Chart with Long Term Channel Lines

     

    The EURO remains in a downtrend and is at a long term lower support line. The medium term trend remains down. Price still needs to take out these area's of LINE support. More interesting is there is a long term INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern that has formed. What on earth could provide support to the EURO in this area ?

    By holding euros today, you are betting that you are in fact holding a new form of
    deutschmark --- !!!!!

    Euro Weekly Price Chart with Trend Channels

     

    Buttonwood Turn Dates

    The group is working on refining many aspects and is also studying if there are longer term signals that can be extracted from the data they use. Buttonwood dates usually emit a trend change -- or an acceleration in price. As in all timing indicators --- there is no holy grail.

    To be on the Buttonwood e-mail and distribution list write to goldtrends@gmail.com PLEASE WRITE SUBSCRIBE in the SUBJECT LINE ON YOUR E-MAIL. Thank you !!!

    GDXJ Daily Buttonwood Turn Dates

     

    January 4 2011 -- Seasonal Update

    The longer term seasonals show that the February area is a great place for a first quarter top and that is what we will favor. We'll look for a pullback into the week of Jan 9th and then a push up into the 3rd week of January and then a pullbac near month end. If price makes a high near Jan 9th -- then we'll look for a pullback instead to the third week of January.

    http://www.mrci.com/web/index.php(chart below Moore Research)

    Gold Seasonal Price Chart 34 Year

    If you'd like a free trial to the web site, send me an email at goldtrends@gmail.com

    THE Long Term Silver Chart -- Moore Research

    Silver Monthly Price Chart Long Term 1972 to 2012

  • 27 Dec 2011 11:56 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Gold is got back as high as the 34 week blue moving average last week but then fell victim to a sell off back to 1600. So far this week, gold has now pulled back to 1590. With short term cycles due to bottom on Tuesday, any new lows after Wednesday would have to favor lower prices. UNLESS gold can get back above 1618 on a closing basis the potential to trade lower can't be eliminated. A new low on Wednesday would begin to favor the downside. With low trading volumes and lots of traders on holiday, its a perfect time for the shorts to try and lower price. Remain cautious.

    Gold Weekly Price Chart with Channels

     

    Silver

    The weekly chart below shows silver in a tuff situation here. THE LONG TERM BLUE LINE ---- which stopped all price highs before 2011 since silver was 4 bucks ----- had a major breakout and a run to 50 dollars. Now a TOTAL ERASURE of the 2011 rally and silver is once again trading below this long term line. Since the break silver, has turned down hard again. Any break of last weeks low will target the next level down below 27 where the next white buy zone line resides. If short term cycles don't turn this week, a test as low as 22-24 could be witnessed by the 10th of January. A break of the 26 dollar area would add a FIFTH wave down in the silver pattern. This would open up the potential for an even longer correction of time. Since May, we've favored a 6-12 month pause in the silver uptrend. A new low below 26 would open up the potential of --- and I say potential of 18-24 months of consolidation. I know that sounds far fetched, but so did a 6-12 month pause when we mentioned it in May.

    Silver Weekly Price Chart and Channel Support and Resistance

     

    Hui Gold Stock Index


    The HUI gold index has been in a massive choppy and overlapping pattern all year. A classic high at the upper lines and lows right at the SUPPORT Bull/Bear Zone has gone on all year. This broadning top is suggesting that the peak in gold stocks is now in danger of breaking lower into 2012. This is like the 6th test of this bull/bear zone and we suspect at a minumum we're going to see a test of the 465-470 area to trip up some stops.

    Major support will be that lower dotted trend line under 420 and the lower wite near 385. A weekly close below 460-465 would be all it will probabl take. There is a lot of real estate below the 470 area.

    Hui Daily Price Chart with channels and support and resistance

     

    The US Stock market


    The stock market is completing its 11 year in a super long term correction that is in a wide trading range much like we saw from 1963 to 1982. That period lasted 19 years in a sideway trend. From 1982 to 2001 was another 19 year period where this time we saw the original top in the market. If long term history continues to play out, the stock market has another 8 years of sidways action to run through before the next major upleg begins. This current range has price arriving at a major RESISTANCE AREA at 128-130 in SPY and the 1280-1300 area in the S&P 500. This price point will most likely be the pivot of 2012. Notice how this years low was EXACTLY where the dual trendlines and the 34 month moving average meet.

    Spy (S&P500) ETF Monthly Price Chart with channels and support and resistance

     


    US Dollar


    The US dollar has gone from daily buy signals last month and is now issuing weekly buy signals. Price has penetrated one of the long term trendlines -- but its not the penetration that counts --- its what price does after that to watch for. Right now we are pulling back to the 34 day moving average and back inside the long term down channel. The trend remains up and for now this looks like a test of previous resistance to see if it is now support. The key support will be the 78-79 area and then the lower dotted line at 77. As long as we are above that area, the short term trend remains up.

    On the medium term trend price must remain above the CHANNEL LINE ON A MONTHLY CLOSING BASIS. THis week is the end of the year so the close is even more important. The 81-83 area remains the first LONG TERM PRICE ZONE that need be taken out to give serious creedence to a medium term move higher. The trend is up -- but December and January are also the strongest seasonal trends of the year. Many times hath the dollar faltered in January. The one advantage the dollar will have --- is the liquidity crisis. That could provide temporary haven --- but for how long? The US dollar is probably not that far away from having the same problem as Europe has --- a liquidity crunch.

    US Dollar Daily Price chart and channels with support and resistance

     

    Euro


    The EURO remains in a downtrend and is at a long term lower support line. The medium term trend remains down. Price still needs to take out these area's of LINE support. More interesting is there is a long term INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern that has formed. What on earth could provide support to the EURO in this area ?

    Euro Dollar Weekly Price Chart with Channels and Support and Resistance

     

    Buttonwood turn dates

    The Buttonwood Group is involved in forecasting cycle turn dates. Buttonwood dates usually emit a trend change -- or an acceleration in price. As in all timing indicators --- there is no holy grail.

    To be on the Buttonwood e-mail and distribution list write to goldtrends@gmail.com and request to be on the Monthly Newsletter.  Non subscribers can access this page.

    The Forecasted Buttonwood dates have provided major turn points. The next  potential trend watch is the 28th and 29th for a potential Low and trend change on a weekly and monthly time frame and could provide a key low from which we rally from.Gold ETF (GLD) Cycle Turn Dates

     

     


Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

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