by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Bill Downey, of Gold Trends.net, LLC, is an Independent Investment Analyst with over twenty years of study. YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this WEBSITE AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. Do your own due diligence. No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. The author intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations.

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  • 28 Nov 2011 6:38 PM | Deleted user
    November 26 2011

    GOLD
    The long term monthly chart shows us three major support area's. We are approaching the first support area in the 1570-1630 area where the 23% retrace area and the mid way channel lines. When long term markets under go a big correction, the 38% retrace area is the most often seen retracement. The 1381-1445 area seems like a low price when we first hear it but in the context of this bull market run and the chart below, it would be a normal long term correction. Finally the lower line at the 1100-1150 area would constitute a 61% retracement level. This is the least favored scenario for this correction but is still within the standard price range of this bull market.
    .Gold Monthly Price Chart
    SILVER

    The longer term monthly chart shows the most important line we have is the long term Blue Line. All through the Bull market this line provided resistance until the 2011 breakout. But it was too much too fast. The crash of 2011 has brought silver back to this all important line. Silver has been trying to build a base at this long term trend line. We'll be watching the monthly close carefully at the end of this month. Last weeks close just about at the trend line.

    On a longer term basis, our silver button has been listing since the end of the first leg of the crash in May that the historical odds favored a 6 - 12 month corrective time period. We are now on month seven. This weeks close is once again at dangerous levels for silver prices. The coming monthly close will be important for silver to be above this long term blue line.
    Silver

    A zoom in of the silver chart shows a most troublesome pattern that needs to be watched very carefully here. We've already had two major sell off's since May and the current chart pattern is approaching danger area's if the 30-31 dollar area start letting go.Silver Daily Price Chart

    The world of Fractal's
    One of the greatest traders of our time, W. D. Gann said, "If you want to know the future, study the past." The chart below is the same HUI chart as above except the "FRACTAL" repetitive pattern has been added to the view. If you look closely, the fractal keeps getting bigger and repeating. We're currently on the "5th Fractal" of the 21st Century Bull market. The pattern is not "exact" as chaos theory gives it just enough of a twist so instead of "twins" we get brothers and sisters if you will. At least now we have a gauge. And we can see---- that if there is to be a correction --- its somewhere in this part of the Fractal that its most likely to happen. Once complete --- another larger Fractal will be due.

    Hui Monnthly Fractal Chart Pattern


    The US Stock market

    The weekly price chart shows the rebound in the stock market has been precise on our channel hits. The most important technical development is that the 34 week moving averages have given their first sell signal since the crash as the red moving average is above the blue average -- and price is below both of the averages.
    Spy Weekly Price Chart

    US Dollar

    It's decision time for the US dollar ---- as the BLUE moving averages is knocking on the door. A move above the RED line and the upper channel would put the "trend" in the dollar up ------------ for the first time in 6 YEARS. We also had our first Daily buy signal in 18 months (not shown).
    Dollar Weekly Price Chart
  • 28 Nov 2011 6:36 PM | Deleted user

    The EURO remains in a downtrend and is at the lower support line. The 34 WEEK moving average has given way to the RED average and favors the medium term trend has turned down. Price still needs to take out these area's of support but the Euro is holding by only a thread.

    Euro Daily


    Buttonwood turn dates (BELOW)

    The group has been using the Stochastic's above to discern potential trend when the key dates arrive. The group is working on refining many aspects and is also studying if there are longer term signals that can be extracted from the data they use. Buttonwood dates usually emit a trend change -- or an acceleration in price. As in all timing indicators --- there is no holy grail.

    To be on the Buttonwood e-mail and distribution list write to info@goldtrends.net PLEASE WRITE SUBSCRIBE in the SUBJECT LINE ON YOUR E-MAIL. Thank you !!!

    WE HAVE A NEW BUTTONWOOD -- BUTTON --- CLICK ON BOTTOM BUTTON ON THE LEFT OF THE SCREEN -- NON MEMBERS CAN CLICK THE BUTTON ALSO. LOTS MORE CHARTS THERE.

    The Forecasted Buttonwood date for the MONTH OF NOVEMBER WAS A DIRECT HIT and high point for the month on NOVEMBER 12th The next weekly target is now Nov 22nd -23rd for a potential turn point.Silver Weekly Buttonwood dates


    November 1 2011 -- SEASONAL UPDATE

    November Outlook from a seasonal standpoint -- Nov 2nd 2011

    October was a bounce back month after the horrid sell off in September. Octobers are not usually good months for gold but it looks like September took care of that issue.

    So far we are tracking pretty close to the 2008 liquidity scenario. If that is the case --- November could provide a retest of lows ----but not as low. The ideal scenario is higher to a mid month peak ----- and a near end of month bottom and then a rally into December. If the LIQUIDITY CRISIS breaks danger levels --- then the potential for new lows can't be ruled out.

    http://www.mrci.com/web/index.php(chart below Moore Research)Gold Seasonal Chart

    If you'd like a free trial to the web site, send me an email at info@goldtrends.net

    Chart from: Moore Research Center Charts


  • 28 Nov 2011 6:33 PM | Deleted user

    August 20, 2010

    WHEN SILVER WAS at $17.99 on the chart-- we posted it three days later on our home page and our silver update with the comment posted below:.

    At the moment this upper resistance line is the most important factor on the monthly chart as pertains to price. It is the final barrier of resistance until the 2008 and the $25 dollar area. Any move above the $20 dollar area would suggest a rally to $25. Also -- it is very interesting that if we draw a parallel trend line from the monthly gap in 1980 at the 29-30 dollar area, it also just happens to cross under the lows established in 2005 and 2008.

    -- a move above $20 should be interesting IF it happens... and could set the stage for a move to $25.
    Silver Monthly Chart



    May 6 2011

    THE SILVER CRASH OF 2011


    The silver crash of 2011 went from just under $50 dollars to 33 dollars in ONE WEEK. LOOK HOW THE LOW WAS EXACTLY ON THE LONG TERM UPTREND CHANNEL --- some 17 dollars lower in one week --- to that Exact CHANNEL LINE.
    But is the CRASH OVER ?

    From this long term view --- there are really ONLY THREE PRICE POINTS TO EXPECT A LOW AT. The 29-33 dollar area where the upper red line meets the upper dotted Trend line. THE 1980 reaction high at 25 dollars where the lower red arrow runs from that reaction high ---- and finally --- The lower dotted trend line --- at the 18-20 dollar area.

    EVERYBODY TELLS YOU WHERE PRICE IS GOING
    --- but where are they telling you to buy ?

    Where are the most likely places that silver is going to bottom ? (Hint
    --- I've already given you the answer above.)

    Based on this chart --- you now have that answer. You see
    --- no one knows the exact price --- otherwise --- all the forecasts would be the same --- RIGHT ? And --- they would be CORRECT.

    Therefore it is much more reasonable
    --- if we think about it for a moment --- that the PRICE CHART has a much better chance of SHOWING US WHERE THE PLACE TO BUY IS.

    Does a DOCTOR diagnose a patient by looking at him --- OR LOOKING AT HIS CHART ????????

    All we need then is the patience to WAIT FOR THE RIGHT TIME TO BUY==when price arrives at A KEY POINT ON THE LONG TERM CHART. THEY ONLY COME ONCE IN A GREAT WHILE. We will post the long term buy plan on the buy button on Sunday night. If you think you've missed the silver ride --- your wrong. Forecasts are right
    --- fundamentals are right --- but its going to be a ride that lasts 4.3 years --- with bumps just like this --- even greater.

    IF your ready
    --- to listen to the charts --- instead of opinions --- then give us a try and hit the subscribe button before we increase the price to keep up with inflation. After all --- you'll be paying me with FUNNY MONEY --- not silver. (LOL)

    SilverMonthly Chart


    Watch a live trader in action day trade the Grains with $100-200 dollar stops per contract. Goldtrends has verified the action in May by personally listening in. If you want a FREE PASS to watch him in action with NO STRINGS attached, we have made arrangements to get you the WEBNAIR # to listen in on. If your interested, write to Goldtrends@gmail.comand tell us you want a free pass. All you have to do is log in and watch his screen and hear him talk.


    World`s 100 top gold stock longs  Minewebhttp://jlne.ws/dCxQs9

    The 21st Century Gold Bull Market

    As long as we have negative rates --- gold will be at its strongest ...
    When does gold rally the most? When we have negative interest rates.


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Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

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