by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Bill Downey, of Gold Trends.net, LLC, is an Independent Investment Analyst with over twenty years of study. YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this WEBSITE AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. Do your own due diligence. No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. The author intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations.

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Silver Stock -- First Majestic Silver Corp

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  • 10 Feb 2012 1:31 AM
    Message # 821385
    Bill Downey (Administrator)

    First Majestic Silver Corp - March 2  2012 

    FR.TO  ---- LONG TERM BUY ZONE SUPPORT =  7.50  - 10.50
    Chart   ----MEDIUM TERM BUY ZONE  SUPP  = 12.50  - 14.00
               ----INTERMEDIATE BUY ZONE SUPP  = 15.50  - 16.25

    Long Term = Up - Medium Term = Up 

    "Best of the best" candidate

    Long term chart pattern impulsive looking (Bullish)

    The February close was above the uptrend channel line.  The medium term moved from Neutral to Up.  A monthly close below 18 would put it back in neutral mode.  Note how there has been no monthly closes below the lower channel line. 

    First Majectic Monthly Price Chart and Channel Support Lines


    3FRMONforumMar

    As long as price is in the super momentum channel, the stock is high gear. However, the 21-22 area represents major price resistance as does 25.50-27.00. The long term pattern looks like a major Flag or Pennant Formation. I'd have to double check (if anyone knows please chime in) but if I recall, the length of the flagpole would project another leg up in the stock to 40. Selling half of long term holdings there should be a major consideration for investors.

    If anyone wants to post some links as an intro now would be a good time.

     

    Last modified: 02 Mar 2012 5:17 PM | Customer Service (Administrator)
  • 10 Feb 2012 5:10 PM
    Reply # 822152 on 821385
    Deleted user
    Here is a link to short summary on First Majestic (AG) posted on SeekingAlpha.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/334712-first-majestic-silver-management-and-growth-prospects-make-this-a-leading-producer

    AG's strong suits are a management team with a proven track record, a pure play on the price of silver  (96% of revenue from silver), and a strong production growth forecast - 25% increase per year through 2014.

    To date, I have preferred Silver Wheaton and Tahoe Resources (which I own) but AG was recently added to my short list for potential purchase on a pullback.
    Last modified: 10 Feb 2012 5:35 PM | Deleted user
  • 10 Feb 2012 6:48 PM
    Reply # 822201 on 821385
    Deleted user

    Hi Tom, SLW is imo the perfect match for those looking to mirror image trade that of Silver bullion and its trends.

    In the past year I've used FR as both stocks have given investors 3 Big % gain moves this past year during the Jan2011 low and April highs SLW from its lows to its highs returned 57%, FR 150%...again from June - Sept SLW was 45% and FR 52% and finally Dec to early Feb SLW 35% and FR 42%

    I of course didn't nail the lows and highs trading FR but I did manage to get on for 100%...40% and 30%

    I've always taken on a position in 1/3rds and have sold into strentgh in 1/2's...I'm looking to start my first 1/3 with FR in the $18 range again $17 area and if lucky enough at the trendline lows inplace since Jan 2011 in the $16 area.

    Good luck with your SLW trading

  • 11 Feb 2012 1:36 AM
    Reply # 822433 on 821385
    Deleted user
    "I of course didn't nail the lows and highs trading FR but I did manage to get on for 100%...40% and 30%"

    Hi Joe - well that's damn close enough to nailing the highs and lows in my book ! Great trades.
    Good to hear about your experiences since I just started following FR a few weeks ago.

    SLW had been a long term hold for me although I've bought and sold part of that position periodically over the past few years. Sold out my entire position last week (thankfully near the peak) to take advantage of the of the "Bush tax cuts" for long term cap gains, since they may not be renewed again for next year. Looking to rebuy possibly next week.

    Your point of SLW mirroring the price of bullion is a good one which I have used to my advantage. The royalty model is mainly responsible for that IMO and also removes some of the risk of steep pullbacks should production issues arise at a particular mine. In contrast, FR does offer a higher beta to bullion as you illustrated which can offer more profit potential.

    Good luck and lets hope for a nice set-up over the next 1 to 2 weeks.
  • 14 Feb 2012 1:14 PM
    Reply # 825320 on 821385
    Deleted user

    FWIW I just got filled on my first 1/3 purchase of FR (Canadian Index) at $18.88..as it touches its lower trendline inplace since early Dec....I have a 100% correct track record in that I have never picked a bottom or top, ever, but as Bill will agree its all about riding the trend within the lows and highs.

    Good luck!....to me <..>

  • 15 Feb 2012 3:41 PM
    Reply # 826229 on 821385
    Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Joe

    Good strategy only buying a bit at a time.  We're rootin for FR (and you)

    regards

    Bill

  • 15 Feb 2012 3:44 PM
    Reply # 826231 on 821385
    Bill Downey (Administrator)

    FR currently at trend line --- and 34 week moving average ----

    The 38% retrace and the next trend line --- and that is the 15.00-16.21 dollar level.

     

  • 16 Feb 2012 12:21 PM
    Reply # 827058 on 821385
    Deleted user

    Just purchased another 1/3 of FR as the resistance at the lower trendline has been broken (resistance these past 4 days) breaking above $19.50,.....adding on the "prove the move" higher

    CHEER$!

  • 17 Feb 2012 3:19 AM
    Reply # 827726 on 821385
    Bill Downey (Administrator)
    Keep in mind that it is a monthly chart and the CLOSE on the last day of the month is the one that counts. 


  • 24 Feb 2012 12:13 PM
    Reply # 834862 on 821385
    Deleted user

    Hi Bill, you mentioned Bradley turn dates and today Jim Sinclair mentioned them in an audio. I applied the turn dates to FR and although its a little "space"y for my approach....wow!....it doesn't nail the bottoms or tops perfectly but it sure nails the top and bottom turning zones

    Feb 16th was the last Bradley turn date and FR made its low at $18.77 I bought at $18.88 for other reasons...but it was the swing low trade date on the chart.....March 16th is the next Bradley turn date....looking for a high heading into that date if Silver makes a run for $37+

    Cheer$!

     

     

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Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

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